Diehards conv 50992: CDs

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Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby Schroeder » 06/06/06 at 11:24:03

In Diehards conversation 50992, hocus outlines the reasons he prefers CDs to stocks . . .

M* Link
My earnings target for my overall portfolio is 4 percent real. ... But I need to be able to hit that target for my financial freedom plan to work. ...

On the one hand . . .

It's not reasonable when buying CDs to expect a 4 percent real return. It can happen. But that's an extremely high return for so safe an asset class.

Yet, on the other hand . . .

But I like to be able to obtain a real return from the CD portion of my portfolio that is high enough so that I am assured of getting a 4 percent overall real return. ...

I'm confused. :-?

Apparantly, I'm not the only one. In post #2, LynnC writes . . .

I'm just getting very confused reading your long replies when they differ so much from post to post.

Another Diehard tries to explain . . .

3. Chameleon Rob.
JMacDonald| 06-06-06 | 09:41 AM
Hi,
Lynn, apparently Hocus Rob is really a chameleon. He tries to be everything to everybody. Who really knows what he really does with his money? At this point he is not credible. Best Wishes.

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby hocus » 06/06/06 at 11:32:55

Again with this hocus individual.

What's the story?

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby intercst » 06/06/06 at 11:46:08

hocus wrote:Again with this hocus individual.

What's the story?

Rob


He has a long history as a persistent liar and a fraud. Many people think he's mentally ill.

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby hocus » 06/06/06 at 12:37:44

He has a long history as a persistent liar and a fraud.

He does?

Many people think he's mentally ill.

They do?

It's an odd story, that''s for sure. It almost makes you wonder if there is some sort of funny business going on.

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby arrete » 06/07/06 at 07:07:38

More from that conversation:
LINK
hocus:
Money can be put into CDs as a holding place until stock prices return to more reasonable levels. That way, you reduce your losses from a price drop while opening up the opportunty to obtain outstanding returns from stocks when the likely long-term returns from that asset class look more appealing.

Rick Ferri jokingly returns with
Wow! Can you teach me to do that?

To which Mel answers:
Of course he can, Rick! Haven't you been paying attention to all those long-winded posts? Shame on you!

Here's a one-paragraph recap on how you do it. First, you bail out of all your risky old equities and buy CDs and TIPS. Then you sit there patiently for perhaps 20-25 years waiting for your amateur sleuth math buddy to say he's "seen the light" and that it's OK to get back into equities. Then you'll live happily ever after! Now isn't that easy?

Jeez, and we thought investing was complicated!


Sounds like they're having fun, too.

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby hocus » 06/07/06 at 07:17:03

Too sad.

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby Schroeder » 06/07/06 at 12:24:18

Methinks johndcraig complains too much.

M* Link
31. Here we go again
johndcraig| 06-07-06 | 08:57 AM
The pack of bullies is back at it.

Rick's comment was probably just an innocent gibe; I doubt that he realizes he has helped legitimize the group of hocus trolls. Mel said that he was going to put Rob on his ignore list, but he obviously couldn't resist getting back to lead his pack. Way to go Mel, you now have enlisted LynnC and have stirred up the perpetual hocus trolls such as Jason.

<snip>

I've seen johndcraig continually lament that Jason is perpetually trolling hocus. If johndcraig is so upset, you would think that he would put Jason on ignore.

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby ataloss » 06/07/06 at 19:33:03

what do you say after you say I can't take the hocus baiting I'm leaving
(I guess that's craigomania)
Rob, please get help: Loudoun County Mental Health 703-771-5100  I am not a mental health professional. I am not qualified to diagnose or treat. Get help. What do you have to lose? Your current course is catastrophically unproductive.
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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby Schroeder » 06/07/06 at 22:36:14

A newbie replies to johndcraig . . .

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42. Re #31 here we go again
Terence| 06-07-06 | 09:31 PM
John,

Your comment was a bit strong but I generally agree. The pettiness is harmful this board which generally has norms of courtesy and respect. I'm truly puzzled by the hocus anti-groupie phenomenom

Too bad the Vanguards Diehards forum at M* doesn't have sticky posts to get newbies up-to-speed. Otherwise, newbies like Terence are left puzzled.

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby ben » 06/08/06 at 06:25:04

I think that Craig might actually be hocus. Hocus is smart enuff to pull that one of for sure.

As for the 4% real OVERALL, it just means that since most CDs generally will give max 1-2% REAL(if lucky and one trust official CPI), the REMAINING part of the portfolio will have to do so much better. I.e. if 50% are in CDs(and similar products with similar expected returns like short bonds Etc.) the remaining 50% (in equities or in the PE10 timing model) will have to do so much better.

Hocus believes that 7% real in stocks is realistic currently but still holds back his equity purchases until the PE10 model (or rather JWR) says it is time to get back in. I fear a long wait - but as long as book sales kicks in that should not stop Disney world Etc. from happening.

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby Schroeder » 06/08/06 at 10:35:34

There is more discussion about hocus on this thread. johndcraig, LynnC and Kalimu are in a pitched debate on the matter. Here's a sample from LynnC in post #44 . . .

M* Link
That said, my problem with Hocus is that he/she never says the same thing twice. One time it is 100% equities and the next time he/she doesn't own any equities and hasn't for some time. that is just one example. It's as if he/she is playing a game and using this forum to do it.
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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby syke-- » 06/08/06 at 10:56:49

ben wrote:
Hocus believes that 7% real in stocks is realistic currently but still holds back his equity purchases until the PE10 model (or rather JWR) says it is time to get back in. I fear a long wait - but as long as book sales kicks in that should not stop Disney world Etc. from happening.

Cheers!


Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm a little confused on the hoco-plan:

If I understand it correctly, hocus thinks that because stocks on average return 7% real, if he stays out at times of high valuations and then jumps back when the gong sounds, he'll get some high rate of return that balanaces the 3% real (or whatever he's getting now).  

That way he can plan on his portolio returning 7% because he'll capture some higher rate of return in the future.  

I think that is the confusion that LynnC has about why hocus is advocating 100% (sometimes) but doesn't own any.  Hocus is planning to go to 100% stocks when JWR puts up the Batsignal.  
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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby hocus » 06/08/06 at 11:24:31

Do you really think so?

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby Schroeder » 06/08/06 at 11:31:46

Yes. I believe hocus calls it "Long-Term Market Timing". And the genesis of his idea springs from the foundations laid by giants before him: William and Peter Bernstein, John Bogle and others. In hocus' mind, it'll be only a matter of time until his and JWR's theories on the "New Buy-and-Hold" method (aka "Dump and Wait") will gain acceptance among the leading thinkers of the investment world.

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Re: Diehards conv 50992: CDs

Postby syke-- » 06/08/06 at 12:47:16

hocus wrote:Do you really think so?

Rob


I asked for clarification if I was wrong, and since you didn't provide any I'll have to assume I'm correct.  
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