100E10/P . No, really.

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100E10/P . No, really.

Postby BigMoneyJim » 04/14/06 at 11:04:12

JWR #61 49557 M* Diehards
If you plot returns versus P/E10, the curve fit is lousy, but the spread (or scatter) is almost ideal for calculating a standard deviation.

If you plot returns versus the percentage earnings yield 100E10/P, the fit is almost ideal.


This thread is being chronicled as another classic hocusode, but I thought I'd put a JWR mention here.

100E10P? Is that useful in regression analysis? 100 years earnings average? I can't imagine that being relevant.
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Re: 100E10/P . No, really.

Postby arrete » 04/14/06 at 11:51:38

I find even the PE lagging 10 years as sort of meaningless.  DH would never have bough Microsoft in '86 or any number of interesting biotech companies.  So work out, some don't - but he's still way ahead $$$ wise.  I mentioned the PE10 thing to him and he just stared at me as if I'd lost my marbles.  He can't believe anyone uses it.  He's kind of a risk-taker  :D.

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Re: 100E10/P . No, really.

Postby sgeeeee » 04/14/06 at 12:12:04

100E10P?  This is priceless.  I think the greatest value of using some nonsense like this is that it isn't even defined and cannot be easily calculated.  E10 is bad enough because in order to apply it to the S&P500, for example, the E ten years ago is not even derived from the same companies as the E or P today.  As arrete points out, you could never buy a company stock till the company is at least 10 years old.  And since most companies do not begin to ramp up earnings for several years, it would typically require that the company be much older.

But 100E10P . . .  ;D :lol: :lol:  I wonder how long until JWR starts using
log(100E10P^1.6+tanh(SWR)?  Now that's a metric I think we can all embrace.   :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: 100E10/P . No, really.

Postby tashina » 04/14/06 at 12:18:08

-SG,

Doesn't it strike you as somewhat unfair to jwr that Hocus is a green and purple tree frog and jwr is just, well, jwr.
There must be something you can do about that.
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Re: 100E10/P . No, really.

Postby BigMoneyJim » 04/14/06 at 12:27:52

Maybe I misunderstood the number. On second glance the way it's spelled out looks like "100 times 10-year-average-earnings divided by current price". I don't see why inverting PE10 and multiplying it by 100 would make any difference in statistical analysis, but maybe I'm not as smart as JWR>
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Re: 100E10/P . No, really.

Postby arrete » 04/14/06 at 12:40:54

tashina wrote:-SG,

Doesn't it strike you as somewhat unfair to jwr that Hocus is a green and purple tree frog and jwr is just, well, jwr.
There must be something you can do about that.

How about some variation of a hedgehog?  I've never met someone so prickly and sensitive about any comment  that disagreed with him.  He's pretty cranky, and his, er, image should reflect that.

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Re: 100E10/P . No, really.

Postby M._Kaleko » 04/15/06 at 16:39:27

arrete wrote:
tashina wrote:-SG,

Doesn't it strike you as somewhat unfair to jwr that Hocus is a green and purple tree frog and jwr is just, well, jwr.
There must be something you can do about that.

How about some variation of a hedgehog? ?I've never met someone so prickly and sensitive about any comment ?that disagreed with him. ?He's pretty cranky, and his, er, image should reflect that.

arrete

3 days ago I submitted a question at JWR's website asking if he is John Russell, the internet psychic.
If he is, that should make for an otherworldly likeness.

Btw, I get a very dark, menacing vibe from JWR while Hocus is just muddled & average.

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Re: 100E10/P . No, really.

Postby sgeeeee » 04/15/06 at 18:42:12

M. Kaleko wrote:
arrete wrote:
tashina wrote:-SG,

Doesn't it strike you as somewhat unfair to jwr that Hocus is a green and purple tree frog and jwr is just, well, jwr.
There must be something you can do about that.

How about some variation of a hedgehog? ?I've never met someone so prickly and sensitive about any comment ?that disagreed with him. ?He's pretty cranky, and his, er, image should reflect that.

arrete

3 days ago I submitted a question at JWR's website asking if he is John Russell, the internet psychic.
If he is, that should make for an otherworldly likeness.

Btw, I get a very dark, menacing vibe from JWR while Hocus is just muddled & average.

Kaleko
 I agree.  JWR is to dark and menacing to be associated with a hedgehog . . . maybe a fruit bat?   :)
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Re: 100E10/P . No, really.

Postby ogrecat » 04/15/06 at 18:57:14

- SG wrote:
M. Kaleko wrote:
arrete wrote:
tashina wrote:-SG,

Doesn't it strike you as somewhat unfair to jwr that Hocus is a green and purple tree frog and jwr is just, well, jwr.
There must be something you can do about that.

How about some variation of a hedgehog?  I've never met someone so prickly and sensitive about any comment  that disagreed with him.  He's pretty cranky, and his, er, image should reflect that.

arrete

3 days ago I submitted a question at JWR's website asking if he is John Russell, the internet psychic.
If he is, that should make for an otherworldly likeness.

Btw, I get a very dark, menacing vibe from JWR while Hocus is just muddled & average.

Kaleko
 I agree.  JWR is to dark and menacing to be associated with a hedgehog . . . maybe a fruit bat?   :)


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Re: 100E10/P . No, really.

Postby M._Kaleko » 04/15/06 at 20:02:07

O Ogrecat,

that is just lovely for JWR.

Now, if Tashina can add some vampire fangs to the bat, I'd say it is a candidate.

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