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Retire Early Home Page • View topic - NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Rob Bennett moderates this Early Retirement Board
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NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 02/15/08 at 14:51:50

Hocus has found a new outlet to troll: . As is his custom, he exercises some restraint in his first post. But we all know that full-blown hocomania is sure to follow! Self-control is not the hocotroll's strong suite...stay tuned! ;)
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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby nfs » 02/15/08 at 16:53:18

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby hocus » 02/15/08 at 17:08:49

That Schlenker fellow has a lot of juice at FWF.

Oh, Great.

Why can't The Juice ever be on the side of the good guys?

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby hocus » 02/16/08 at 12:54:36

Of Bennett's last 21 posts, only one person has replied. ?

No one can say that they didn't get their questions answered.

That's the job.

I've read it all the way though three times. It's a very good thread.

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby Schroeder » 02/16/08 at 18:37:02

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby Schroeder » 02/17/08 at 11:36:26

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby nfs » 02/18/08 at 18:10:12

All in all you're just another brick in the wall. - Roger Waters
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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby hocus » 02/19/08 at 08:13:06

A moderator moved the thread into a members-only area that FWF uses for non-financial topics like politics and religion

I have an article at my site entitled "Honest Posting on Valuations Banned at Investing Discussion Boards!" There are several comments among those noted there in which community members noted that "defenses" of the Efficient Market Theory have much in common with the arguments used by those "defending" the most intensely dogmatic of religious viewpoints.

It pretends to be science. It is not science. If it were science, there would be a way to defend it that would not be so emotional.

Was the thread "trouble"? It was a fine thread. It was indeed "trouble" for those who cannot bear to questiion whether they were wrong in their decision to buy into the Efficient Market Theory or Passive Investing (a strategy rooted in a belief in this theory).

I don't say that my writings do not shake up people who believe in the EMT. That is the intent.

What I say is that I have never once engaged in any posting tactic that in any way, shape or form could be described as abusive. If the EMT were science, it would not be viewed as "trouble" to point out its weaknesses.

A "theory" that cannot stand up to scrutiny in a discussion held on an internet discussion board cannot work in the real world either. EMT will go down in the first secular bear market to come along since it became widely popular (we are now in Year Eight).

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby hocus » 02/19/08 at 08:19:01

Although that Schlenker fellow has juice at FWF, he had nothing to do with that moderator's decision.

By definition, the majority of investors are investing irrationallly when the P/E10 value is 24.

The defense we are hearing, reduced to its essence is: "Most of us agree that overvaluation is not possible, so stocks are not overvalued."

It doesn't work that way.

It is when most agree that overvaluation is not possible that the risk of stocks being wildly overvalued is greatest.

I have certainly ?never said that my investing views are the investing views of the majority. I have said that the majority would like to see these questions explored in reasonable and civil discussions. That reality is reflected in the published site rules of all the sites at which the issues have been discussed for a time. All site moderators have a responsibility to the community to become familiar with the published site rules, in my view.

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby hocus » 02/19/08 at 08:23:51

Since this thread is now moving into the area of investing as a faith based exercise,

Stock investing became a faith-based exercise when the Efficient Market Theory became the dominant model for understanding how stock investing works.

It will become a more rational enterprise again only when most investors understand that denying one's emotions does not make them go away.

Denial does not solve the problem of negative emotions influencing investing decisions. It makes it 20 times worse.

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby Schroeder » 02/19/08 at 10:00:29

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby hocus » 02/19/08 at 10:09:52

The Dow reached all-time highs last year.

What a relief!

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby hocus » 02/19/08 at 10:25:14

He seems to have had no problem distinguishing who is being rational and scientific and academic versus who is being emotional and religious.

If he possessed confidence in EMT, he would have no concern with the idea of people seeing it questioned. If the idea could withstand questioning, questioning of it would increase people's confidence.

The only reason for putting a stop to questioning is a concern that the idea cannot stand up to questioning.

If he knows with absolute certainty that the idea is so well "proven" that it is beyond questioning, he should not be participating on a discussion board. Discussions involve questioning.

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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby hocus » 02/19/08 at 10:27:59

The member is apparently a doctor, i.e. someone who works in a field that faces uncertainty and noisy data every day and has been trained to employ as best as possible the scientific method to solve the problems he encounters.

Doctors have made mistakes, NFS. There are many cases of this happening.

I have never questioned that there are many "smart" people who believe in the EMT. This is a reality.

Different people have different sorts of "smarts." There are a number of Big Shots in the investing field that have personality types that are extremely averse to the idea of admitting getting something wrong. This is a big problem.

Being able to admit a mistake is itself a type of "smarts," in my view.
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Re: NEWS FLASH! Hocomania stalking new prey!

Postby hocus » 02/19/08 at 10:30:19

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