2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

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2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby PinkUnicorn » 01/01/15 at 10:31:27

Here we are in 2015. This is a big year. As most may recall, Hocus has predicted that the big crash (65% drop) would happen by the end of this year. That means he will be getting that $500 million dollar check really soon and we will all have to stop buying our cars and bananas (analogy used by Hocus) with our "cotton-candy nothingness".

I guess the Boglehead forum people should just hand over the keys right now! :lol:
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby gw » 01/01/15 at 10:41:40

He will certainly start backing out of his prediction. I predict that he will both use a blatant lie ("I never said that. ") and will also claim extenuating circumstances ("The market would have crashed but..."). 12 months from now, when he has again been proven wrong and foolish, he will under no circumstances admit he made a mistake. He'll just go on with his miserable life.
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby dab90south » 01/01/15 at 11:29:48

i'm going to get in line and beg rob for a few crumbs of his cotton-candy money once he cashes the check....hmm....wonder if it will bounce, since he says the financial world will basically come to an end?
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby Sensible Investor » 01/01/15 at 12:23:41

Well, I guess it's time for me to adjust my portfolio so that it's all in cash. LOL.
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 01/01/15 at 12:40:02

I was asked to give a time frame and ?felt that that was a reasonable thing to demand of me. So I gave it my best shot. I said that, if we do not see a crash by the end of 2015, that would be grounds to question this VII stuff. I think that is fair. We cannot say when it will come but there are lots of reasons to believe that it should come by the end of 2015. If it doesn't, that would suggest that we are missing a big piece of the puzzle and I think it would be fair for my critics to point that out. That's all I can say on the matter.

I can give the reasons why I view the end of 2015 as being an outside date. But they don't matter. You've heard them before. The bottom line is that we cannot give a precise date. Emotions are not predictable to that extent. But the entire historical record indicates we should see the crash by the end of 2015. I don't have a crystal ball. I am just reporting what the data tells us. WHICH WAS THE ENTIRE IDEA OF THE BUY-AND-HOLD PROJECT ONCE UPON A TIME.

ROB

There. Straight from the horse's mouth.

Interesting you should mention cash. For purposes of hocomania, Rob assumes all portfolios are 100% invested in the S&P 500. No exceptions. Ergo, a 65% Stock-Market-Crash-Of-Hocus'-Dream causes a 65% reduction in net worth for all investors. No exceptions. Moreover, Rob "hocus" Bennett has decreed that ALL returns which don't comport with the Principles of Hocomania are cotton candy nothingness. No allowances made for taking money out of the market and parking it in safe cash. That's not allowed. No how, no way.
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby dab90south » 01/01/15 at 12:50:10

i converted everything to pork bellies. delicious, but the freezer bills are killing me....
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby Sensible Investor » 01/01/15 at 13:04:01

Those pork bellies should come in handy during the coming Greater Depression that Hocus has been warning about. You should be able to barter for lots of good stuff. Nice Jewelry, land, and other assets. Good plan.
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby dab90south » 01/01/15 at 13:14:31

i'll be the only guy in town with bacon.....i'll rule them all!! bwhahaha..... after all, man cannot live by bread alone....something, something, ....i'm pretty sure bacon is in there somewhere!!
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby PinkUnicorn » 01/02/15 at 09:18:20

gw wrote:He will certainly start backing out of his prediction. I predict that he will both use a blatant lie ("I never said that. ") and will also claim extenuating circumstances ("The market would have crashed but..."). 12 months from now, when he has again been proven wrong and foolish, he will under no circumstances admit he made a mistake. He'll just go on with his miserable life.


GW,

It didn't take long for your prediction to come true. Just this morning, Hocus responds back to "X" with the following:

I didn’t make a prediction in a strict sense, X.
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby dab90south » 01/02/15 at 11:13:49

:rolleyes:

'yeah, what i said,...well, i didn't really say it in a literal sense, but more in a figurative manner....here, let me tell you what i meant when i said what i said in clear English...."

it's like trying to nail jello to the wall, ultimately pointless.
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 01/02/15 at 16:50:32

PinkUnicorn wrote:
gw wrote:He will certainly start backing out of his prediction. I predict that he will both use a blatant lie ("I never said that. ") and will also claim extenuating circumstances ("The market would have crashed but..."). 12 months from now, when he has again been proven wrong and foolish, he will under no circumstances admit he made a mistake. He'll just go on with his miserable life.


GW,

It didn't take long for your prediction to come true. Just this morning, Hocus responds back to "X" with the following:

I didn’t make a prediction in a strict sense, X.

Them Wall Street "Con Men" are artificially propping up the market just so Rob "hocus" Bennett can't receive the Fame & Fortune that is owed to him for having spent the past 12 (13?) years of his life trolling the internet. Them dudes are D-I-A-B-O-L-I-C-A-L! How's a poor, mentally ill internet troll supposed to withstand the AWESOME POWER of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia standing in the way of a Stock Market Crash and Second Great Depression which will give a mentally ill internet troll the Adulation & Riches he's "earned?" Oh the humanity!!!
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby gw » 01/03/15 at 09:24:52

My guess is that that might happen sometime within the next two years.


There you go. He's weaseling out of his 2015 prediction and now says "Maybe by the beginning of 2017." Doesn't have much confidence in himself, does he?

:lol: :lol: :) :lol:
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby Sensible Investor » 01/03/15 at 09:59:00

The longer this goes on the more it should become clear to Rob that his claim that buy and hold cannot work for "ANY" investors is simply wrong.
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby dab90south » 01/03/15 at 10:55:59

facts don't bother rob. they are just proof to him how wide and deep the great conspiracy has gone (now watch him appropriate that phrase). why, it's even infected text books, men of learning, great institutions and companies - turrible, just turrible.
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Re: 2015 - A big year for Hocus prediction

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 01/13/15 at 12:44:50

Hokum continues to walk away from his prediction today at his Plop:

If I could tell you the precise year and month and day in which the crash is going to hit, I would do that. I cannot do that. So I don’t pretend to be able to do that.


Hocus, do you want us to pretend you never said this:

I was asked to give a time frame and ?felt that that was a reasonable thing to demand of me. So I gave it my best shot. I said that, if we do not see a crash by the end of 2015, that would be grounds to question this VII stuff. I think that is fair. We cannot say when it will come but there are lots of reasons to believe that it should come by the end of 2015. If it doesn't, that would suggest that we are missing a big piece of the puzzle and I think it would be fair for my critics to point that out. That's all I can say on the matter.

I can give the reasons why I view the end of 2015 as being an outside date. But they don't matter. You've heard them before. The bottom line is that we cannot give a precise date. Emotions are not predictable to that extent. But the entire historical record indicates we should see the crash by the end of 2015. I don't have a crystal ball. I am just reporting what the data tells us. WHICH WAS THE ENTIRE IDEA OF THE BUY-AND-HOLD PROJECT ONCE UPON A TIME.

ROB


There sure is a lot of PRETEND in the Wide World of Hocomania! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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