Links to Shiller for hocus

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Links to Shiller for hocus

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 12/04/14 at 18:10:39 ... 1412972484

Hocus, you say you're interested in learning from Shiller? Cool. Go ahead, read this linked-article with an open mind and try to soak it all in. Try to understand how little understanding of finance that addled brain of yours is able to soak in.

Oh and hocus, I was a bit taken aback by this statement you made at the Plop today:

Whatever happened to the stock crash that Shiller predicted for this year? There’s not much time left for that one to come through, is there?

What on earth are you talking about? Shiller made no such prediction. Perhaps you've forgotten that bold prediction was made by none other than the mentally ill internet troll Rob "hocus" Bennett. You. Here, let me refresh your memory:


I don't know when the crash will come. I don't think anyone knows. I believe that the people who pretend to know are fooling themselves.

I know that there is 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research (NOT opinion) showing that a crash is coming.

I was asked to give a time frame and ?felt that that was a reasonable thing to demand of me. So I gave it my best shot. I said that, if we do not see a crash by the end of 2015, that would be grounds to question this VII stuff. I think that is fair. We cannot say when it will come but there are lots of reasons to believe that it should come by the end of 2015. If it doesn't, that would suggest that we are missing a big piece of the puzzle and I think it would be fair for my critics to point that out. That's all I can say on the matter.

I can give the reasons why I view the end of 2015 as being an outside date. But they don't matter. You've heard them before. The bottom line is that we cannot give a precise date. Emotions are not predictable to that extent. But the entire historical record indicates we should see the crash by the end of 2015. I don't have a crystal ball. I am just reporting what the data tells us. WHICH WAS THE ENTIRE IDEA OF THE BUY-AND-HOLD PROJECT ONCE UPON A TIME.

Shiller did correctly predict both the collapse of the internet stock bubble in 2000 and the real-estate boom in the late 2000's. But I believe your confusing your own prognosticating with that of Shiller. I know, so many Bat$hit Crazy delusions swirling about in that addled noggin of yours. How can a mentally ill internet troll possibly be expected to keep track of all of 'em!

Why don't we look at what Dr. Shiller has actually said rather than how a mentally ill internet troll has misinterpreted and or/misrepresented his words:

Many analysts have warned lately that Prof. Shiller’s long-term stock-pricing indicator is dangerously high by historical standards.

Known as the “cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio,” or CAPE, Prof. Shiller’s measure is based on the current market price of the S&P 500-stock index, divided by its average earnings over the past 10 years, both adjusted for inflation. It stands at nearly 26, well above the long-term average of about 16.

If only things were that simple, Prof. Shiller says.

“The market is supposed to estimate the value of earnings,” he explains, “but the value of the earnings depends on people’s perception of what they can sell it again for” to other investors. So the long-term average is “highly psychological,” he says. “You can’t derive what it should be.”

Even though the CAPE measure looks back to 1871, using data that predates the S&P 500, it is unstable. Over the 30 years ending in 1910, CAPE averaged 17; over the next three decades, 12.7; over the 30 years after that, 15.7. For the past three decades it has averaged 23.4.

Today’s level “might be high relative to history,” Prof. Shiller says, “but how do we know that history hasn’t changed?”

So, he says, CAPE “has more probability of predicting actual declines or dramatic increases” when the measure is at an “extreme high or extreme low.”

Shiller goes on to say:

Today’s level, Prof. Shiller argues, isn’t extreme enough to justify a strong conclusion. So, he says, he and his wife still have about 50% of their portfolio in stocks.

Rob, all you're doing with your daily diatribes at the Plop is the idiom: a little bit of learning is a dangerous thing. And you'll notice the article refers to Shiller's "deep humility." Humility is something that nobody will every associate with the narcissistic, passive-aggressive, mentally ill internet troll Rob "hocus" Bennett!
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