more fables from the Plop

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Re: more fables from the Plop

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 02/20/14 at 22:03:26

DRiP Guy wrote:So does Mrs. Hocus wield the purse strings?

And does Rob need to make an appointment first, in order to obtain an audience with her?

I am not going to check how long [S&P500 @ PE13] was available. But I know that it was only available for a short time, certainly not anything close to a year. I talked to my wife about buying some stocks at that time and, before we were able to have a follow-up discussion, the P/E10 had started rising again.

Really hocus? It took you and the Missus that long to have a discussion and make a decision? Too bad. Looks like you lost out on the buying opportunity of a lifetime as mentioned in this blog post:

For most of history, the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio (CAPE) oscillated in a pseudo sine wave around a long-term (130 year) average of 15.30. ?It spent 55% percent of the time above the average, and 45% of the time below?a reasonable result for a metric that allegedly mean reverts. ?Since 1990, however, the metric has only spent 2% of the time below its historical average?98% of the time above.

The metric?s failure to mean-revert over the last 23 years hasn?t been for a lack of reasons. The period covered three recessions, two stock market crashes, and one bonafide financial panic?the likes of which hadn?t been seen since the Great Depression. ?Even in the worst parts of the 2008-2009 crash?at levels that we now look back on with nostalgia as the ?buying opportunity? of our generation?the metric failed to provide an accurate valuation signal. ?In an inexcusable blunder, it basically called the market ?slightly below fair value? (see the black circle).

http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress ... 3/shiller/

Bad things tend to happen when you put all your eggs in one basket. Or when a Bat$hit Crazy internet troll begins to believe his own delusions actually do have a connection to reality! :lol:
Work is the refuge of those who have nothing better to do, Oscar Wilde
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Re: more fables from the Plop

Postby dab90south » 02/20/14 at 22:09:20

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.
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Re: more fables from the Plop

Postby DRiP_Guy » 02/21/14 at 07:33:25

dab90south wrote: That would rip the time-space continuum.

And that would be bad.


Not if you are a half-billionaire and much acclaimed public hero of millions of people, right?
Surely that guy could just hire someone to mend it for him!
Robert Michael "Hocus" Bennett, October 22, 2010: "I have been living off my savings for 10 years"
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Re: more fables from the Plop

Postby gw » 02/21/14 at 14:59:58

But I know that it was only available for a short time, certainly not anything close to a year. I talked to my wife about buying some stocks at that time and, before we were able to have a follow-up discussion, the P/E10 had started rising again.


Sure, CAPE was down around 13 for only a month or two in the spring of 2009. ?Certainly, Rob needs more time than that to schedule meetings with his wife.

:roll: :lol:
Bennett's May '02 post: "I am deeply sorry for falsely criticizing the study"
http://boards.fool.com/the-differences-between-how-dory36s-online-17225279.aspx
Read about Rob; google "Narcisstic Personality Disorder".
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