nailing down date of impending stock crash

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Re: nailing down date of impending stock crash

Postby hocus2009 » 06/28/13 at 03:31:58

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Re: nailing down date of impending stock crash

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 05/28/14 at 14:58:07

I was asked to give a time frame and  felt that that was a reasonable thing to demand of me. So I gave it my best shot. I said that, if we do not see a crash by the end of 2015, that would be grounds to question this VII stuff. I think that is fair. We cannot say when it will come but there are lots of reasons to believe that it should come by the end of 2015. If it doesn't, that would suggest that we are missing a big piece of the puzzle and I think it would be fair for my critics to point that out. That's all I can say on the matter.

Hocus, it's now almost June in the year 2014. Just 1 year and 7 months left in your little game of pretending to be a modern day Nostradamus. You sure do have a lot riding on the market dropping 65% as you've demanded. You getting nervous that it might not obey the instructions of a mentally ill internet troll?

I do hope you come up with some fresh hocomania by the end of 2015 in the unlikely event the stock market doesn't behave according to the Laws of Hocomania. The Bat$hit Crazy recycled mania you've been serving up at the Plop of late is dreadfully B-O-R-I-N-G!!!   :roll:
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Re: nailing down date of impending stock crash

Postby DRiP_Guy » 06/10/14 at 17:05:25

hocus2009 wrote: I said that, if we do not see a crash by the end of 2015, that would be grounds to question this VII stuff. I think that is fair.

I can give the reasons why I view the end of 2015 as being an outside date. But they don't matter... the entire historical record indicates we should see the crash by the end of 2015.

ROB


I think Rob is wrong (Chance of some significant retrenchment from current record levels (which were, btw, unpredicted by Rob!)? Sure. But a 65% drop from the point that Rob first started throwing that 65% percent crash talk around? ?Ummmm no, don't think so.  In fact, I'll go on record now and say that since I took a buy and hold stance in my own affairs, and have maintained an allocation consistent with my need and ability to take risk, and will continue to do so, that I GUARANTEE that my personal portfolio as arbitrarily measured from the date of Rob's early retirement, until after any future market crash, will STILL far outperform Rob's own actual returns from his own "Hope, shake, and pray" method.

That's the acid test.
Robert Michael "Hocus" Bennett, October 22, 2010: "I have been living off my savings for 10 years"
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Re: nailing down date of impending stock crash

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 01/01/15 at 12:21:14

<bump>

Thought I'd add a new tradition to black-eyed peas on New Year's Day; ringing in the New Year by resurrecting the thread in which hocus posted his Grand Prediction of the date of the next stock market crash. 2015. By golly, that's THIS year! Big year for Farmer Hocus...gonna be Rich & Famous for sure!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: nailing down date of impending stock crash

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 12/07/15 at 13:29:19

Oh my! Farmer Hocus didn't wait for the end of 2015 to start moving the goalposts. He's busy today fudging the ultimate date of the Stock-Market-Crash-Of-Hokum's-Dream at his Plop:

Valuation-Informed Indexing #256: There Are Rare Circumstances in Which Short-Term Predictions of Price Changes Can and Should Be Made

December 7, 2015 By Rob 2 Comments

I’ve posted Entry #256 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called There Are Rare Circumstances in Which Short-Term Predictions of Price Changes Can and Should Be Made.


Juicy Excerpt:: There are two reasons why I predict that we will see a crash by the end of 2016 rather than by the end of 2018 (the far safer prediction).

One reason is that a lot of my critics insist that I offer claims that can be verified as proof that the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept works. I always explain that precise predictions generally cannot be made. However, I do have some sympathy for their position. To say “there will be a crash someday because prices must revert to the mean but we have no idea when that will happen” is to say just about nothing. It is not fair for critics of Valuation-Informed Indexing to demand more precision than is possible. But it is also at least a little bit unfair for Valuation-Informed Indexers to refuse to offer any precision whatsoever. I think we should always employ caveats when we make predictions. But I think we also need to try to be a bit more specific than to say “there will be another crash someday.”

Valuation levels have been headed downward for nearly 16 years. It’s been seven years since the first crash. Ten years is not the amount of time we should expect to see pass before we see a second crash; it is the longest amount of time we should expect to see pass before we see that second crash. At the end of 2016, we will have seen eight years pass. I think it is reasonable to expect to see the second crash by then. It hardly seems fair to say in 2008 that we should expect to see another crash within 10 years and then to continue to say in 2015 that we should expect to see another crash within 10 years. If the 2008 prediction was valid (it was), then it should be possible to say in 2015 that we will see a crash within three years. And, given that that is the longest it should take for the crash to take place, it does not seem too far out to me to say that there is a very strong chance that we will see the crash by the end of 2016.

I don’t offer guarantees. I certainly acknowledge that my prediction could be proven wrong. But I see strong support for that prediction in the 145 years of historical return data available to us today.

I don't offer guarantees.

Oh, don't sell yourself short hocus. You DO offer guarantees. If 2018 arrives and still no crash, you'll just push the date out into the future some more...GAR-ON-TEED!!! :D :D :D
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Re: nailing down date of impending stock crash

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 12/07/15 at 13:42:55

I was asked to give a time frame and ?felt that that was a reasonable thing to demand of me. So I gave it my best shot. I said that, if we do not see a crash by the end of 2015, that would be grounds to question this VII stuff. I think that is fair. We cannot say when it will come but there are lots of reasons to believe that it should come by the end of 2015. If it doesn't, that would suggest that we are missing a big piece of the puzzle and I think it would be fair for my critics to point that out. That's all I can say on the matter.

Well hocus, do grounds now exist to question this VII stuff? Or did you nullify any questions directed at your Little Precious by moving the goalposts out to 2018? :roll:
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