It’s all in how you look at it. You look at the 14 years of Goon attacks and say “hey, we really taught that Rob Bennett fellow not to mess with Buy-and-Hold, huh?” I look at the same 14 years of abuse and observe that that abuse is what has kept lots of other smart and good people from walking the path that I have walked and thereby has left a mountain of high-dollar opportunities open to me.
It is not possible that Fama and Shiller are both right. The came to opposite conclusions about how stock investing works. Both were awarded Nobel prizes. But one of the two got things terribly, terribly wrong. We need as a society to figure out which one of the two it was who got things right and which one of the two it was who got things wrong. We all need to pull together and get down to the job of resolving the differences between these two Nobel prize winners. We need to begin doing that by the close of business today.
The historical return data shows that that strategy (Valuation-Informed Indexing) has worked for 145 years running now. Buy-and-Hold has not yet worked for a single long-term investor.
And yet the (marketing) experts in this field continue to push it relentlessly. I wonder why.
I feel this so strongly. This is what drives me. I believe that God put me on earth to make the case for opening up this field to honest research because it is so important that we all get on the same page re this one. This is not a case where the Buy-and-Holders have to win or lose and the Valuation-Informed Indexers need to win or lose. Everybody wins when this kind of research goes forward. Learning Together is the proverbial free lunch. It is because I believe so strongly in the Learning Together concept that I built that Retire Early board into the #1 most successful board in the history of the Motley Fool site. This stuff matters. Big time.
The entire site tells the story, Anonymous. Close your eyes and pick a page at random. Then just follow the links from there. If your mind is open to learning things about stock investing that we did not know at the close of 1980, you will be stunned and amazed. We’re talking “revolutionary” (Shiller’s word) stuff.
When you talk about successful Buy-and-Hold outcomes, you are talking about portfolio balances that exist today that you did not divide by two. Stocks are today priced at two times their real value. Why don’t you divide by two?
Do you think that a $100,000 portfolio that exists at a time when the P/E10 level is 8 (1982) has the same value as a $100,000 portfolio at a time when the P/E10 level is 44 (2000)?
I say that the first portfolio is more than five times more valuable. There is now 35 years of peer-reviewed research (based on 145 years of historical return data) showing that this is so. I say that anyone who thinks those two portfolios are equal in value is living in a fantasy world.
Now that I have written these words, I am thinking that I might have my fresh angle for the Ritholtz column. I am now leaning in the direction of writing that one up. So we are looking at four or five articles re the research paper and one re the Ritholtz article, both of which were brought to my attention by you Goons.
People ask me all the time why I even bother to talk with you given your obvious hate for the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research and all discussions of the implications that follow from it.
It’s a process. We are a long ways away from the state of confusion that caused us to tolerate Bogle’s unwillingness to come clean back in 1981. We know more all the time. We understand more all the time. We are well on out way to experiencing the biggest surge in economic growth in U.S. history. It is happening, Anonymous, and there is nothing that you and your Goon pals can do to hold us back. The people of the United States possess more power than a band of internet Goons backed by a band of Wall Street Con Men. It’s not a close call. There has always been only one way that this thing could turn out in the long run.
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