A Question for John Greaney

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A Question for John Greaney

Postby hocus » 07/02/06 at 17:00:02

John:

You say (wrongly) that a 4 percent withdrawal rate is safe for a retirement beginning today. What withdrawal rate do you say is unsafe for a retirement beginning today, according to the historical data?

Is a 5 percent withdrawal safe or unsafe, according to your research?

Is a 6 percent withdrawal safe or unsafe, according to your research?

Is a 7 percent withdrawal safe or unsafe, according to your research?

Rob
Lying and sliming since May 12, 2002 --  Don't understand why intercst allows me to post here. Learn more about Rob Bennett, see link: http://retireearlyhomepage.com/bennett.html
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Re: A Question for John Greaney

Postby intercst » 07/02/06 at 18:04:48

hocus wrote:John:

You say (wrongly) that a 4 percent withdrawal rate is safe for a retirement beginning today. What withdrawal rate do you say is unsafe for a retirement beginning today, according to the historical data?

Is a 5 percent withdrawal safe or unsafe, according to your research?

Is a 6 percent withdrawal safe or unsafe, according to your research?

Is a 7 percent withdrawal safe or unsafe, according to your research?

Rob



An inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of 4% (from a diversifed equity/fixed income portfolio) survived every 30-year period from 1871-2002

A withdrawal rate of 5% failed failed 24% of the time

A withdrawal rate of 6% failed failed 50% of the time

A withdrawal rate of 7% failed failed 67% of the time.

Hocus's current retirement plan of taking a 10% withdrawal from a 100% fixed income portfolio did not survive any 30-year period in history.

If you want to check the arithmetic, see link:

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/re60.html

intercst
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Re: A Question for John Greaney

Postby ogrecat » 07/02/06 at 18:07:32

hocus wrote:John:

You say (wrongly) that a 4 percent withdrawal rate is safe for a retirement beginning today. What withdrawal rate do you say is unsafe for a retirement beginning today, according to the historical data?

Is a 5 percent withdrawal safe or unsafe, according to your research?

Is a 6 percent withdrawal safe or unsafe, according to your research?

Is a 7 percent withdrawal safe or unsafe, according to your research?

Rob



http://www.passionsaving.com/how-to-sta ... money.html

The most frequent question I am asked when giving money management advice is ?How do I get started saving money?? I?ve learned that the best way to get aspiring savers started is with the wonderfully simply but wonderfully powerful Multiply-by-25 Rule.  :o
As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly.
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Re: A Question for John Greaney

Postby intercst » 07/02/06 at 18:09:06

While we're on the subject of withdrawal rates, readers might be interested in voting in our special 'Father's Day' poll.

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/fathersday.html

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Re: A Question for John Greaney

Postby hocus » 07/03/06 at 01:53:20

Thanks for your response.

Rob
Lying and sliming since May 12, 2002 --  Don't understand why intercst allows me to post here. Learn more about Rob Bennett, see link: http://retireearlyhomepage.com/bennett.html
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Re: A Question for John Greaney

Postby DRiP_Guy » 01/12/14 at 15:05:25

intercst wrote:
hocus wrote:What withdrawal rate do you say is unsafe for a retirement beginning today, according to the historical data?

Rob
An inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of 4% (from a diversifed equity/fixed income portfolio) survived every 30-year period from 1871-2002

A withdrawal rate of 5% failed failed 24% of the time

A withdrawal rate of 6% failed failed 50% of the time

A withdrawal rate of 7% failed failed 67% of the time.

Hocus's current retirement plan of taking a 10% withdrawal from a 100% fixed income portfolio did not survive any 30-year period in history.

intercst

A classic!

(and still relevant, and still true -- I suspect if updated with data to include up to 2013, those failure rates would not budge much at all.)
Robert Michael "Hocus" Bennett, October 22, 2010: "I have been living off my savings for 10 years"
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Re: A Question for John Greaney

Postby DRiP_Guy » 01/12/14 at 15:17:16

Not updated for 2013 yet, but from intercst's data -

Year      2012 update
1994 Retiree (portfolio start value $100K, WR = 4% inflation adjusted)

Harry Dent Portfolio             ?$437,455
Harry Browne Portfolio      $388,833
Warren Buffett Portfolio      $375,001
One Fund 60%/40%       ?$247,883
75% S&P500/25% FI       ?$244,461
MPT Portfolio                   ? ?$221,658
Larry Swedroe Portfolio      $208,953
100% Fixed Income       ?$113,296


Which of those most closely approximates your own real-world portfolio over that period, Rob?

No matter what, it still looks like 4% did the job.
;)
Robert Michael "Hocus" Bennett, October 22, 2010: "I have been living off my savings for 10 years"
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Re: A Question for John Greaney

Postby DRiP_Guy » 01/28/14 at 19:48:06

DRiP Guy wrote:Not updated for 2013 yet, but from intercst's data -

Year      2012 update
1994 Retiree (portfolio start value $100K, WR = 4% inflation adjusted)

Harry Dent Portfolio             ?$437,455
Harry Browne Portfolio      $388,833
Warren Buffett Portfolio      $375,001
One Fund 60%/40%       ?$247,883
75% S&P500/25% FI       ?$244,461
MPT Portfolio                   ? ?$221,658
Larry Swedroe Portfolio      $208,953
100% Fixed Income       ?$113,296


Which of those most closely approximates your own real-world portfolio over that period, Rob?

No matter what, it still looks like 4% did the job.
;)



bump for answer
(Rob, if you are still banned here, you have your own blog to respond at)
Robert Michael "Hocus" Bennett, October 22, 2010: "I have been living off my savings for 10 years"
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Re: A Question for John Greaney

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 01/28/14 at 20:37:03

Come on hocus, how 'bout some Free & Open Honest Posting? about your personal SWR experience here or at the Plop? Or is it just to skeery for you to be free, open and honest about your withdrawal rate given that you suffered a failed attempt at early-retirement due to insufficient savings, a limited understanding of arithmetic, and a half-a$$ed financial plan. Good thing you had that inheritance and/or a working wife to make Safe Withdrawal Rates irrelevant to the hoco-retirement plan! :roll:
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Re: A Question for John Greaney

Postby Yipee-Ki-O » 12/10/14 at 02:11:43

Still mum about your personal withdrawal rate, huh hocus? I guess it matters not to the mentally ill internet troll Rob "hocus" Bennett given that his financial needs are met through an inheritance and/or a working spouse.
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