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JWR1945
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Joined: 26 Nov 2002
Posts: 1697
Location: Crestview, Florida

PostPosted: Fri Feb 28, 2003 5:07 am    Post subject: Buy signal Reply with quote

Buy Signal

I do not engage in market timing. But for those who do, let me suggest that today is a buying opportunity because of Iraq. This opportunity is unlikely to be available Monday.

I point to three factors. The first was a speech from President Bush to the American Enterprise Institute on Wednesday.
www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/02/20030226-11.html

The second is that there is a new moon (total darkness) tonight and this weekend in Iraq. That gives the United States military an overwhelming advantage over any enemy.

The third is that the United Nations security council has failed to meet its obligations if it is to retain relevance. They have had a final opportunity because of our admiration and support for Great Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Here are some excerpts from President Bush's speech:
The safety of the American people depends on ending this direct and growing threat. Acting against the danger will also contribute greatly to the long-term safety and stability of our world. The current Iraqi regime has shown the power of tyranny to spread discord and violence in the Middle East. A liberated Iraq can show the power of freedom to transform that vital region, by bringing hope and progress into the lives of millions. America's interests in security, and America's belief in liberty, both lead in the same direction: to a free and peaceful Iraq. [Emphasis added]

America's national security is at stake.

The first to benefit from a free Iraq would be the Iraqi people, themselves. Today they live in scarcity and fear, under a dictator who has brought them nothing but war, and misery, and torture. Their lives and their freedom matter little to Saddam Hussein -- but Iraqi lives and freedom matter greatly to us.

Bringing stability and unity to a free Iraq will not be easy. Yet that is no excuse to leave the Iraqi regime's torture chambers and poison labs in operation. Any future the Iraqi people choose for themselves will be better than the nightmare world that Saddam Hussein has chosen for them.

America's role is as a liberator.

The United States has no intention of determining the precise form of Iraq's new government. That choice belongs to the Iraqi people. Yet, we will ensure that one brutal dictator is not replaced by another. All Iraqis must have a voice in the new government, and all citizens must have their rights protected.

Rebuilding Iraq will require a sustained commitment from many nations, including our own: we will remain in Iraq as long as necessary, and not a day more. America has made and kept this kind of commitment before -- in the peace that followed a world war. After defeating enemies, we did not leave behind occupying armies, we left constitutions and parliaments. We established an atmosphere of safety, in which responsible, reform-minded local leaders could build lasting institutions of freedom. In societies that once bred fascism and militarism, liberty found a permanent home.

There was a time when many said that the cultures of Japan and Germany were incapable of sustaining democratic values. Well, they were wrong. Some say the same of Iraq today. They are mistaken. The nation of Iraq -- with its proud heritage, abundant resources and skilled and educated people -- is fully capable of moving toward democracy and living in freedom.

America is as committed to the Iraqi people as it was to rebuilding Europe and Japan after World War 2. Again, national security is at stake.

With over 90 nations on board and with an important military advantage this weekend, expect hostilities to begin before Monday.

Should there be any doubts, I have no Government sources of any kind except www.whitehouse.gov behind my predictions.

Have fun.

John R.


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ataloss
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Joined: 25 Nov 2002
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Fri Feb 28, 2003 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

makes sense (and Blix is in NYC) but there is a pending un resolution, wouldn't they wait for that? otoh russia has threatened to veto....



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JWR1945
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Joined: 26 Nov 2002
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Location: Crestview, Florida

PostPosted: Fri Feb 28, 2003 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For all intents and purposes, the UN action had already broken down on Thursday.

President Bush's speech was highly significant because it includes decisions and conclusions that might have been altered somewhat previously via negotiations.

Of course, all of this is highly speculative. There are other possibilities.

There can be changes in order to gain an element of surprise.

We are already seeing Iraqi troops surrender...even now, before combat. They do this at great danger to themselves. The Iraqi orders are to shoot anyone who tries to surrender. This kind of thing might change our approach.

Still, this is my best guess. We should know shortly.

Have fun.

John R.


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wanderer
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Joined: 26 Nov 2002
Posts: 363
Location: anytown, usa

PostPosted: Fri Feb 28, 2003 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

based on your assessment, we'll know in 48 hours.



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JWR1945
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Joined: 26 Nov 2002
Posts: 1697
Location: Crestview, Florida

PostPosted: Sat Mar 01, 2003 4:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wanderer
Quote:
based on your assessment, we'll know in 48 hours.

In terms of events, yes.

In terms of the buying opportunity, that expired on Friday.

In terms of market behavior, even if events work out exactly as I am expecting, the market could go down or sideways instead of up. Although many people (including me) would look at this as a buying opportunity, others may look at it as a selling opportunity. They may have been waiting for the volume to increase enough to unload some stocks.

In a similar vein, although the pundits are warning investors to stay away from bonds because interest rates may go up, their companies are buying bonds hand over fist in expectation that rates will go down. (Business Talk Radio host Roger Arnold has mentioned this in his Daily Observations email newsletter recently.)

Have fun.

John R.


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JWR1945
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Joined: 26 Nov 2002
Posts: 1697
Location: Crestview, Florida

PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2003 6:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is official. My buy signal has failed.

Have fun.

John R.


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ElSupremo
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Joined: 21 Nov 2002
Posts: 343
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2003 6:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings John Smile
Quote:
It is official. My buy signal has failed.


I gave you a 50-50 chance of success! Cool



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wanderer
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Joined: 26 Nov 2002
Posts: 363
Location: anytown, usa

PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2003 7:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is official. My buy signal has failed

there is no success like failure.



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wanderer

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