## Algorithm G1 with TIPS

Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

Moderator: hocus2004

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

### Algorithm G1 with TIPS

I have rewritten this article because of some errors.

There were bugs with the sequences beginning in 1892, 1968, 1972 and 1973. I have collected a new set of data. The results are better than previously reported.

Algorithm G1 with TIPS

Gummy recently came up with an interesting withdrawal algorithm. It adjusts withdrawals according to the percentage earnings yield, 100E10/P or 100/ [P/E10], and an offset. I have added two algorithms of this sort. They are in all of my Gummy type calculators. Algorithm G1 makes an adjustment as a percentage of a portfolio's current balance. Algorithm G2 makes an adjustment as a percentage of a portfolio's initial balance.

My implementation is highly flexible.

I used my Gummy 02 calculator in this survey. It is similar to the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08 except that it includes Algorithms G1 and G2.

Algorithm G1 appears in row 24 in columns C and D.

Total Expenses = (100E10/P+B15)*B25*(Current Balance)

Gummy's Multiplier is in cell B25. This term should a positive number whenever withdrawals are to increase as the percentage earnings yield increases.

Gummy's Offset is in cell B15. This term should a negative number.

To use the algorithm, set Gummy Algorithm 1? Y=1 equal to 1 in cell B24.

General Procedure

I examined two portfolio types: one consisting of 50% stocks and 50% TIPS and the other of 80% stocks and 20% TIPS. I set the TIPS interest rate was 0%. That is, I used an inflation-matched cash equivalent.

I looked at slopes of 0.25 and 0.50. That is, I set B25 equal to 0.25, which is plus 0.25, and to 0.50, which is plus 0.50. [The sign should be the opposite of what is used with algorithm G2.]

I set the offset equal to (2.5%). That is, I set B15 equal to (2.5%), which is minus 2.5%.

By setting the offset to (2.5%), there is no adjustment to the withdrawal amount when the earnings yield 100E10/P is 2.5%. That is, there is no adjustment when P/E10 equals 40.

When P/E10 equals 20, the percentage earnings yield is 5.0%. The withdrawal rate adjustment is (slope)*(5%-2.5%) in real dollars. This is (0.25)*(2.5%) or (0.50)*(2.5%) depending upon the choice of the slope term (i.e., multiplier) B25. These adjustments increase the withdrawal amounts by 0.625% or 1.250% of the portfolio's current balance.

When P/E10 equals 10, the percentage earnings yield is 10%. The withdrawal rate adjustment is (slope)*(10%-2.5%) in real dollars. This is (0.25)*(7.5%) or (0.50)*(7.5%), which is an increase of 1.875% or 3.75% of the portfolio's current balance.

My final step was to adjust the amount in cell B9, the regular input for the withdrawal rate, in increments of 0.1% as high as I could without any failures in 30 years.

I started with initial balances of \$100000. [There is no way to enter expenses independent of the withdrawal algorithm. The expenses were 0% and the entry in cell B15 was -2.5%.] I adjusted the standard withdrawals (the term in cell B9) to match inflation according to the CPI. I rebalanced the portfolio annually.

I determined the five-year rolling averages of the amount withdrawn for the historical sequences starting in 1921-1980 at the end of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years.

Tables

Tables with all of these outputs follow this post.

Observations

These results favored the higher stock allocation (80%).

Using a slope of 0.25 (that is, setting B25 equal to plus 0.25) provided a higher income floor than using a slope of 0.50.

Using a slope of 0.50 (that is, setting B25 equal to plus 0.50) produced a higher income ceiling than using a slope of 0.25.

In some data not presented here, I took results with an initial offset of (7.0%). That is, at minus 7.0% as in Gummy's original description of his algorithm. This resulted in some negative withdrawal amounts. The negative withdrawals (i.e., deposits needed to satisfy the algorithm) resulted from differences between what I implemented and Gummy's actual approach.

DETAILS

With a slope of 0.50 and a portfolio with 50% stocks, the (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts generally stayed above \$3000 for the first 20 years. The only exception was at year 20 of the 1980 sequence. Its withdrawal amount was \$2910. Withdrawal amounts stayed above \$2600 for all valid cases. [There were a few other conditions are artifacts of the dummy data used after 2002.]

With 80% stocks, withdrawals were above \$3200 for the first 20 years. The worst case was \$3211 at year 20 of the 1980 historical sequence. Withdrawal amounts stayed above \$2700 for all valid cases. [There were a few other conditions are artifacts of the dummy data used after 2002.]

The maximum (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts are close to \$7000 with a portfolio with 50% stocks and often stayed above \$5000. The maximum (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts were even higher with a portfolio with 80% stocks.

With a slope of 0.25, the income floors were \$3500 in both cases during the first 20 years (with \$3285 being the worst case exception, occurring in the 1980 sequence with 50% stocks). With 50% stocks, withdrawal amounts exceeded \$3100 for all valid conditions. Sufficient cash remained to permit withdrawals of \$3200 for all valid conditions. With 80% stocks, withdrawal amounts exceeded \$3200 for all valid conditions. [There were artifacts associated with the dummy data as well.]

The ceilings were close to \$5000 with 50% stocks and \$7000 with 80% stocks.

I determined the balances at years 10, 20 and 30 for both 50% stocks and 80% stocks when the slope was 0.25.

When the portfolio had 50% stocks, there were 29 times that the balance fell below \$40000. They occurred in 18 separate sequences. There were 17 times that the balance fell below \$30000. They occurred in 15 separate sequences. There were 7 times that the balance fell below \$20000. They occurred in 7 separate sequences.

When the portfolio had 80% stocks, there were 14 times that the balance fell below \$40000. They occurred in 8 separate sequences. There were 7 times that the balance fell below \$30000. They occurred in 5 separate sequences. There were 2 times that the balance fell below \$20000. They occurred in 2 separate sequences.

Algorithm G1 is an excellent variable withdrawal rate algorithm.

I used the slopes that had worked well with algorithm G2. A slope in the neighborhood of 0.25 was a good choice. A slope of 0.50 was another good choice. It had a lower income floor and a higher income ceiling.

My procedure for determining the amount to be withdrawn resulted in a high level for the standard withdrawal amount, which is based only on the portfolio's initial balance and inflation. This resulted in a higher income floor than we usually see with variable withdrawal rate algorithms.

Both portfolios provide steady income streams. Both portfolios had a large percentage of portfolio balances below \$40000 at year 30 (with a few very low balances). This indicates that the algorithm is doing what it is supposed to do: translating favorable stock market conditions into immediate income without giving up safety. This shows up as limited variation in final balances.

There is room for further optimization of the withdrawal rates.

These results favored the higher stock allocation (80%).

Today's withdrawal rates

Today's P/E10 value is close to 28 or 29. Today's percentage earnings yield, 100% / [P/E10], is very close to 3.5%.

When using a slope of 0.25 to adjust withdrawal amounts: The variable portion of withdrawals is (slope of 0.25)*(100E10/P - offset of 2.5%) = (slope of 0.25)*(3.5% - 2.5%) = (0.25)*(1%) = 0.25% of the portfolio's current balance.

With a slope of 0.25 and with 50% stocks, the standard portion of withdrawals is 3.1% of the portfolio's initial balance plus inflation (i.e., 3.1% in real dollars) for an intended lifetime of 30 years.

With a slope of 0.25 and with 80% stocks, the standard portion of withdrawals is 3.2% of the portfolio's initial balance plus inflation (i.e., 3.2% in real dollars) for an intended lifetime of 30 years.

For a retirement beginning today, the calculated withdrawal rates are 3.35% with 50% stocks and 3.45% with 80% stocks (when adjusting withdrawal amounts using a slope of 0.25).

When using a slope of 0.50 to adjust withdrawal amounts: The variable portion of withdrawals is (slope of 0.50)*(100E10/P - offset of 2.5%) = (slope of 0.50)*(3.5% - 2.5%) = (0.50)*(1%) = 0.50% of the portfolio's current balance.

With a slope of 0.50 and with 50% stocks, the standard portion of withdrawals is 2.6% of the portfolio's initial balance plus inflation (i.e., 2.6% in real dollars) for an intended lifetime of 30 years.

With a slope of 0.50 and with 80% stocks, the standard portion of withdrawals is 2.7% of the portfolio's initial balance plus inflation (i.e., 2.7% in real dollars) for an intended lifetime of 30 years.

For a retirement beginning today, the calculated withdrawal rates are 3.1% with 50% stocks and 3.2% with 80% stocks (when adjusting withdrawal amounts using a slope of 0.50).

Judging from previous historical sequences starting from times of high valuations and low initial withdrawal amounts, withdrawal amounts are likely to rise first and then fall.

The upside potential using the bigger slope is limited. Judging from previous historical sequences starting from times of high valuations and low initial withdrawal amounts, withdrawal amounts are likely to remain close well under 5% of the initial balance even when the slope is increased to 0.50.

Remember that this is our initial survey.

Have fun.

John R.
Last edited by JWR1945 on Thu Mar 03, 2005 1:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Revised TIPS at 0% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.7%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.7%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.8%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   7730    5181    7409
1922   7261    6006    6707
1923   6279    6361    6068
1924   5603    6964    6171
1925   4974    7007    5600
1926   4594    6209    5275
1927   4985    5386    5539
1928   4922    4627    4771
1929   4540    4015    4085
1930   4782    3939    4193
1931   4999    4267    4469
1932   5404    5560    5635
1933   5766    6205    6401
1934   4968    5364    5275
1935   5086    5937    5790
1936   4587    4909    4820
1937   4477    4366    4193
1938   5097    5099    5047
1939   5021    4887    4814
1940   5200    4982    4806
1941   5748    5808    5504
1942   6302    6468    6280
1943   6067    6179    6221
1944   5782    5870    5687
1945   5604    5498    5518
1946   5543    5229    5403
1947   6172    5969    6108
1948   6256    6308    6022
1949   6183    6015    5816
1950   6095    6187    5724
1951   5520    5748    5089
1952   5254    5306    4942
1953   5290    5021    4794
1954   5225    5026    4944
1955   4685    4342    4564
1956   4472    4017    4454
1957   4419    4117    4570
1958   4465    4253    4909
1959   4059    3942    4571
1960   3971    4100    4814
1961   3881    4251    4864
1962   3823    4138    4692
1963   3877    4324    5107
1964   3780    4297    4736
1965   3834    4359    4381
1966   3927    4346    4276
1967   4129    4678    4614
1968   4106    4730    4333
1969   4286    4720    4230
1970   4800    4945    4524
1971   4889    4955    4404
1972   4913    4907    4033
1973   5098    4734    3862
1974   5897    5464    4367
1975   6738    6440    4929
1976   6115    5569    4349
1977   6357    5233    4297
1978   7060    5714    4640
1979   7202    5679    4642
1980   7202    5458    4662``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   6274    7231    7554
1922   7123    7467    7837
1923   6586    6849    7094
1924   6979    7101    7426
1925   6718    6646    6657
1926   5856    5935    5634
1927   5610    5655    5424
1928   4716    4599    4445
1929   3830    3566    3270
1930   3878    3579    3367
1931   4302    3947    3880
1932   5684    5454    5531
1933   6570    6661    6369
1934   5272    5059    4860
1935   5704    5749    5321
1936   4482    4515    4053
1937   3885    3770    3515
1938   4949    4686    4467
1939   4579    4379    4274
1940   4742    4394    4629
1941   5729    5072    6022
1942   6458    6011    7343
1943   5937    5684    7131
1944   5488    5424    7084
1945   5109    5521    7253
1946   4799    5615    7040
1947   5686    6868    9114
1948   5767    7260   10179
1949   5764    7661    9933
1950   6290    8572    9774
1951   6046    7727    8498
1952   5777    7347    7944
1953   5749    7568    7427
1954   6271    7786    7445
1955   5611    5983    5633
1956   5187    5326    4777
1957   5391    5504    4527
1958   6117    5845    4747
1959   5159    4690    3783
1960   4964    4544    3612
1961   4923    4373    3515
1962   4631    3805    3226
1963   4744    3870    3292
1964   4246    3448    3014
1965   3921    3180    2865
1966   3724    3063    2784
1967   3791    3215    2903
1968   3543    3053    2808
1969   3436    3005    2779
1970   3598    3196    2804
1971   3537    3124    2765
1972   3397    3030    2752
1973   3286    2958    2651
1974   3685    3125    2345
1975   4245    3095    1752
1976   3706    2880    1804
1977   3655    2905    1446
1978   3829    2362    1150
1979   3612    1847    1273
1980   3211    1442    1456``````
More follows.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Revised TIPS at 0% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.2%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.2%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.3%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5842    4601    6004
1922   5573    5024    5537
1923   5047    5188    5143
1924   4684    5479    5172
1925   4354    5479    4828
1926   4156    5042    4626
1927   4351    4614    4766
1928   4322    4217    4339
1929   4131    3891    3951
1930   4261    3856    4021
1931   4378    4036    4191
1932   4583    4728    4869
1933   4762    5064    5302
1934   4350    4606    4648
1935   4407    4911    4948
1936   4152    4362    4385
1937   4099    4077    4029
1938   4418    4485    4544
1939   4382    4374    4413
1940   4479    4435    4419
1941   4767    4901    4844
1942   5051    5268    5298
1943   4925    5102    5245
1944   4777    4927    4917
1945   4686    4720    4805
1946   4660    4575    4735
1947   4988    4982    5136
1948   5029    5158    5073
1949   4988    4985    4935
1950   4938    5063    4868
1951   4638    4814    4501
1952   4499    4570    4408
1953   4516    4415    4319
1954   4479    4409    4390
1955   4203    4046    4175
1956   4095    3875    4111
1957   4068    3926    4171
1958   4089    3993    4347
1959   3882    3828    4161
1960   3838    3907    4289
1961   3792    3983    4319
1962   3762    3925    4230
1963   3789    4021    4460
1964   3740    4006    4268
1965   3767    4040    4088
1966   3815    4038    4041
1967   3918    4218    4250
1968   3907    4251    4107
1969   3999    4256    4064
1970   4262    4396    4262
1971   4310    4411    4205
1972   4326    4398    3996
1973   4427    4320    3903
1974   4849    4755    4232
1975   5286    5319    4578
1976   4964    4822    4209
1977   5099    4641    4171
1978   5472    4918    4372
1979   5548    4889    4358
1980   5547    4751    4352``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   5482    6315    6876
1922   5942    6400    6983
1923   5572    5945    6392
1924   5776    6075    6585
1925   5592    5755    6003
1926   5058    5273    5258
1927   4918    5098    5106
1928   4384    4416    4422
1929   3849    3742    3598
1930   3892    3766    3677
1931   4167    4027    4050
1932   5037    5037    5201
1933   5579    5817    5750
1934   4763    4734    4674
1935   5034    5177    4976
1936   4270    4353    4100
1937   3900    3865    3731
1938   4576    4476    4380
1939   4345    4270    4242
1940   4449    4281    4477
1941   5071    4724    5409
1942   5507    5308    6259
1943   5162    5068    6070
1944   4865    4877    6001
1945   4621    4914    6089
1946   4432    4962    5954
1947   4952    5721    7293
1948   4979    5927    7955
1949   4952    6133    7782
1950   5231    6655    7705
1951   5067    6130    6882
1952   4899    5891    6542
1953   4870    6017    6238
1954   5147    6153    6276
1955   4769    5096    5094
1956   4533    4714    4543
1957   4650    4843    4405
1958   5059    5082    4575
1959   4523    4376    3917
1960   4434    4307    3813
1961   4424    4219    3755
1962   4267    3875    3557
1963   4360    3939    3613
1964   4078    3670    3422
1965   3897    3502    3321
1966   3792    3433    3268
1967   3860    3545    3356
1968   3716    3441    3288
1969   3659    3413    3266
1970   3778    3549    3279
1971   3744    3500    3249
1972   3654    3434    3241
1973   3586    3385    3160
1974   3853    3495    2944
1975   4209    3466    2554
1976   3848    3319    2603
1977   3807    3333    2385
1978   3907    2985    2228
1979   3759    2673    2334
1980   3506    2446    2471``````

Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   229375    240260    301476
1922   149605    182339    300067
1923   122274    155326    257146
1924   171736    180690    266346
1925   130316    164536    288944
1926   152761    167487    269084
1927   170653    117902    242372
1928    93724     70364    127483
1929    66250     34145     47134
1930    73436     42514     62384
1931    81486     69668    119843
1932   108327    154390    345114
1933   121202    190198    393666
1934    91725    114443    255333
1935   117176    188804    362111
1936    95645    127919    198190
1937    54821     80395     97643
1938    77249    144946    252906
1939    68989    155696    216127
1940    76594    165513    197975
1941   106297    223902    276560
1942   146931    335092    400125
1943   149070    299042    403803
1944   128383    291753    275240
1945   153309    285440    180870
1946   145276    237862    167315
1947   202529    312668    254266
1948   204478    375602    244829
1949   251856    374765    237655
1950   236290    299578    212358
1951   204798    248298    180726
1952   208839    234611    133564
1953   185000    235230    137821
1954   215489    194776    154355
1955   168863     97311     90467
1956   145004     88786     69671
1957   132751     90330     84707
1958   162323     90625     99735
1959   124627     60282     55222
1960   105991     55695     57093
1961   103356     55974     50153
1962    94308     36730     36890
1963   110266     46617     50434
1964    74789     36105     26499
1965    48554     26651     10257
1966    52608     24581      4543
1967    60815     41133     32477
1968    46323     30177     21332
1969    44113     30093     25701
1970    51891     51507     85886
1971    53921     47802     82758
1972    41307     48771     58141
1973    41518     43116     41194
1974    64772     88862     94488
1975    96279    148498    149292
1976    84585    132594     84456
1977   100451    156388     69931
1978   117991    254371     82894
1979   127839    320692     70139
1980   146168    365591     59063
``````
This completes the 80% stock data.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Revised TIPS at 0% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.6%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.6%.
There were three failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.7%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   7062    4247    5664
1922   6676    4888    5356
1923   5912    5406    4949
1924   5182    5901    4968
1925   4621    6189    4665
1926   4266    5704    4525
1927   4642    5034    4849
1928   4833    4417    4472
1929   4691    3998    4092
1930   4918    3837    4134
1931   5041    4047    4251
1932   5081    4900    4826
1933   5246    5488    5378
1934   4745    5088    4790
1935   4714    5490    5082
1936   4463    4829    4572
1937   4530    4408    4155
1938   4959    4801    4556
1939   4993    4692    4393
1940   5201    4791    4332
1941   5632    5446    4701
1942   5868    5759    4953
1943   5676    5498    4872
1944   5531    5274    4549
1945   5462    4975    4464
1946   5644    4872    4550
1947   5930    5098    4735
1948   5814    5156    4538
1949   5682    4890    4410
1950   5632    5054    4419
1951   5159    4830    4083
1952   4898    4545    4012
1953   4909    4331    3938
1954   4756    4293    4006
1955   4420    3907    3899
1956   4307    3700    3930
1957   4239    3765    4028
1958   4175    3804    4213
1959   3895    3639    4113
1960   3804    3783    4386
1961   3700    3930    4481
1962   3672    3899    4457
1963   3684    4033    4836
1964   3625    4090    4662
1965   3713    4264    4413
1966   3841    4335    4370
1967   3999    4626    4652
1968   4014    4802    4457
1969   4224    4887    4378
1970   4703    5005    4525
1971   4838    5016    4385
1972   4954    5068    4028
1973   5297    4998    3882
1974   5961    5473    4114
1975   6396    5945    4256
1976   6038    5353    3902
1977   6349    4997    3859
1978   6841    5175    3990
1979   6988    5105    3978
1980   6936    4841    3965``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   4496    4876    4624
1922   5196    5161    4982
1923   5124    4980    4750
1924   5386    5100    4822
1925   5415    5006    4538
1926   4916    4667    4032
1927   4769    4552    3930
1928   4269    3984    3513
1929   3754    3407    2988
1930   3718    3304    2961
1931   3945    3412    3128
1932   4615    3983    3679
1933   5177    4585    4060
1934   4496    3899    3549
1935   4610    4136    3677
1936   3951    3653    3220
1937   3594    3311    3015
1938   4027    3594    3305
1939   3812    3473    3252
1940   3886    3475    3413
1941   4384    3756    4008
1942   4598    4055    4433
1943   4301    3912    4376
1944   4114    3841    4451
1945   3942    3939    4659
1946   3878    4176    4886
1947   4165    4587    5621
1948   4116    4682    6032
1949   4114    4907    6029
1950   4476    5601    6214
1951   4460    5355    5679
1952   4374    5260    5458
1953   4415    5541    5264
1954   4727    5728    5235
1955   4590    4852    4369
1956   4481    4557    3949
1957   4675    4714    3761
1958   5168    4857    3784
1959   4702    4190    3275
1960   4578    4089    3160
1961   4557    3949    3082
1962   4436    3551    2937
1963   4495    3529    2952
1964   4149    3249    2803
1965   3921    3060    2728
1966   3772    2978    2682
1967   3714    3041    2731
1968   3503    2935    2683
1969   3398    2898    2667
1970   3417    2976    2664
1971   3336    2910    2636
1972   3241    2854    2626
1973   3175    2819    2571
1974   3351    2872    2426
1975   3559    2809    2180
1976   3269    2698    2158
1977   3231    2700    1940
1978   3279    2437    1752
1979   3155    2161    1724
1980   2910    1918    1771``````
More data with 50% stocks follow.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Revised TIPS at 0% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.1%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.1%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.2%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5437    4026    4913
1922   5216    4358    4695
1923   4806    4619    4445
1924   4417    4858    4435
1925   4125    4992    4251
1926   3940    4722    4159
1927   4128    4376    4333
1928   4227    4058    4126
1929   4160    3838    3916
1930   4284    3757    3947
1931   4351    3873    4023
1932   4367    4324    4355
1933   4446    4630    4666
1934   4187    4411    4326
1935   4168    4622    4495
1936   4040    4271    4201
1937   4078    4056    3969
1938   4299    4277    4214
1939   4320    4223    4126
1940   4431    4287    4100
1941   4657    4656    4327
1942   4777    4827    4470
1943   4675    4677    4411
1944   4599    4552    4214
1945   4564    4387    4156
1946   4664    4335    4206
1947   4813    4457    4306
1948   4751    4481    4185
1949   4679    4327    4100
1950   4650    4406    4096
1951   4403    4276    3901
1952   4267    4118    3854
1953   4272    4002    3809
1954   4190    3976    3838
1955   4018    3771    3773
1956   3962    3663    3786
1957   3927    3695    3836
1958   3892    3712    3930
1959   3750    3624    3871
1960   3704    3696    4013
1961   3651    3769    4065
1962   3637    3753    4054
1963   3642    3822    4263
1964   3613    3850    4177
1965   3657    3942    4058
1966   3722    3984    4049
1967   3802    4143    4226
1968   3811    4241    4136
1969   3918    4299    4111
1970   4164    4381    4221
1971   4235    4400    4152
1972   4299    4444    3955
1973   4483    4428    3881
1974   4834    4717    4036
1975   5059    4989    4120
1976   4876    4654    3895
1977   5047    4461    3865
1978   5308    4563    3937
1979   5387    4517    3919
1980   5358    4357    3898
``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   4305    4665    4664
1922   4699    4810    4866
1923   4629    4665    4666
1924   4761    4719    4689
1925   4759    4644    4469
1926   4447    4408    4099
1927   4366    4338    4026
1928   4074    3978    3741
1929   3770    3611    3378
1930   3760    3556    3367
1931   3909    3637    3490
1932   4325    4014    3867
1933   4667    4401    4115
1934   4242    3939    3749
1935   4315    4088    3829
1936   3907    3767    3515
1937   3691    3546    3376
1938   3967    3736    3573
1939   3836    3656    3535
1940   3884    3659    3643
1941   4198    3842    4041
1942   4319    4022    4307
1943   4124    3916    4247
1944   3998    3859    4277
1945   3887    3908    4400
1946   3848    4050    4550
1947   4012    4293    5016
1948   3971    4331    5259
1949   3956    4444    5240
1950   4150    4843    5369
1951   4126    4681    5021
1952   4066    4612    4881
1953   4080    4768    4773
1954   4241    4877    4765
1955   4155    4369    4206
1956   4094    4202    3944
1957   4203    4310    3843
1958   4474    4417    3872
1959   4214    4015    3532
1960   4162    3972    3465
1961   4162    3902    3420
1962   4103    3669    3324
1963   4162    3675    3342
1964   3974    3502    3242
1965   3855    3389    3194
1966   3783    3344    3166
1967   3773    3394    3203
1968   3655    3329    3169
1969   3601    3308    3156
1970   3625    3366    3150
1971   3578    3321    3128
1972   3519    3282    3122
1973   3480    3258    3075
1974   3599    3290    2969
1975   3725    3241    2807
1976   3531    3165    2799
1977   3501    3166    2665
1978   3524    2996    2566
1979   3439    2829    2569
1980   3285    2694    2618``````

Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   143305    125741    111547
1922   112904    110293    120312
1923    99334     99401    108250
1924   124950    109946    111711
1925   105250    103774    118309
1926   116767    102510    105563
1927   126333     82626     99101
1928    86509     57572     59454
1929    69155     36037     27281
1930    72616     39061     28091
1931    76639     51831     45967
1932    91114     88593    113807
1933   100078    109004    144937
1934    82489     75500     99944
1935    96332    105919    131181
1936    83863     79539     79230
1937    59048     58362     45324
1938    71461     83733     92664
1939    66321     87948     82490
1940    71029     93218     81635
1941    88561    119823    115297
1942   108426    157223    151191
1943   109126    145374    149301
1944    99039    142786    115494
1945   111943    141175     87744
1946   110253    130138     87326
1947   134571    154838    115147
1948   134941    173128    110490
1949   155139    172869    106325
1950   151342    154647    102680
1951   137591    134729     87603
1952   139157    128100     68599
1953   129403    128654     68929
1954   143362    115188     73876
1955   121224     71367     45937
1956   109944     66287     36081
1957   104469     67099     41535
1958   118945     67337     47644
1959    99425     49554     26741
1960    90008     46762     27184
1961    88400     46236     24178
1962    83151     34783     17460
1963    91918     40360     23441
1964    71812     33680     12373
1965    54823     27958      5571
1966    57852     27143      3733
1967    62997     36604     15292
1968    53026     30577     11422
1969    51388     31042     14768
1970    56123     41960     35429
1971    57094     39571     34584
1972    48192     40585     27768
1973    48913     39357     25629
1974    63460     61288     49925
1975    79955     84940     72110
1976    73205     77291     46613
1977    82335     87773     43056
1978    91798    125107     53350
1979    97777    150647     50854
1980   107112    166470     46433``````
This completes the data with 50% stocks.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
New TIPS at 1% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.7%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.7%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.8%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   7750    5216    7528
1922   7280    6058    6808
1923   6294    6420    6158
1924   5614    7029    6263
1925   4982    7072    5679
1926   4603    6261    5347
1927   4999    5427    5619
1928   4937    4660    4836
1929   4551    4039    4134
1930   4794    3962    4244
1931   5010    4294    4526
1932   5414    5604    5718
1933   5779    6260    6503
1934   4979    5408    5352
1935   5097    5989    5879
1936   4597    4946    4887
1937   4487    4397    4246
1938   5111    5139    5119
1939   5034    4925    4881
1940   5213    5021    4871
1941   5763    5859    5583
1942   6318    6526    6375
1943   6083    6233    6316
1944   5798    5921    5769
1945   5620    5543    5595
1946   5559    5270    5477
1947   6189    6017    6194
1948   6272    6361    6105
1949   6199    6064    5893
1950   6111    6238    5799
1951   5533    5792    5149
1952   5265    5344    4999
1953   5303    5055    4848
1954   5237    5059    5002
1955   4695    4367    4614
1956   4480    4037    4503
1957   4427    4139    4622
1958   4473    4277    4968
1959   4065    3962    4624
1960   3977    4122    4877
1961   3886    4276    4928
1962   3828    4162    4752
1963   3883    4350    5179
1964   3786    4323    4800
1965   3841    4388    4438
1966   3934    4376    4331
1967   4137    4712    4679
1968   4114    4766    4392
1969   4295    4757    4286
1970   4812    4985    4588
1971   4902    4995    4464
1972   4926    4948    4082
1973   5112    4773    3905
1974   5914    5512    4421
1975   6758    6500    4992
1976   6133    5616    4399
1977   6377    5274    4344
1978   7082    5761    4693
1979   7224    5724    4694
1980   7223    5500    4715``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   6412    7469    7887
1922   7294    7717    8186
1923   6742    7075    7405
1924   7150    7339    7756
1925   6881    6867    6942
1926   5988    6126    5862
1927   5735    5834    5640
1928   4813    4733    4615
1929   3898    3658    3373
1930   3949    3667    3474
1931   4387    4048    4013
1932   5813    5618    5742
1933   6729    6879    6619
1934   5390    5207    5028
1935   5834    5924    5508
1936   4570    4638    4170
1937   3952    3857    3605
1938   5052    4807    4604
1939   4668    4484    4401
1940   4835    4497    4779
1941   5852    5200    6248
1942   6600    6177    7637
1943   6061    5835    7413
1944   5596    5564    7369
1945   5203    5669    7558
1946   4882    5771    7336
1947   5797    7075    9518
1948   5878    7480   10644
1949   5875    7903   10385
1950   6421    8862   10221
1951   6171    7982    8878
1952   5894    7587    8301
1953   5864    7822    7758
1954   6406    8050    7775
1955   5730    6172    5867
1956   5293    5488    4963
1957   5505    5678    4691
1958   6257    6035    4919
1959   5270    4830    3901
1960   5069    4678    3715
1961   5028    4497    3611
1962   4730    3899    3303
1963   4847    3965    3369
1964   4332    3522    3073
1965   3997    3238    2914
1966   3792    3116    2824
1967   3857    3271    2945
1968   3600    3099    2839
1969   3487    3047    2801
1970   3652    3244    2818
1971   3588    3166    2774
1972   3441    3064    2762
1973   3325    2986    2640
1974   3734    3154    2309
1975   4311    3116    1679
1976   3753    2891    1730
1977   3697    2918    1349
1978   3875    2342    1044
1979   3646    1799    1176
1980   3229    1372    1372``````
More follows.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
New TIPS at 1% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.3%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.3%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.4%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5948    4712    6148
1922   5679    5142    5676
1923   5151    5308    5276
1924   4787    5601    5306
1925   4457    5601    4956
1926   4258    5158    4750
1927   4455    4726    4892
1928   4426    4326    4456
1929   4234    3994    4058
1930   4364    3959    4128
1931   4480    4141    4301
1932   4686    4841    4996
1933   4866    5183    5439
1934   4454    4719    4770
1935   4510    5028    5077
1936   4255    4471    4501
1937   4201    4182    4136
1938   4522    4595    4662
1939   4485    4482    4527
1940   4582    4544    4532
1941   4871    5015    4968
1942   5156    5387    5431
1943   5030    5218    5377
1944   4882    5042    5043
1945   4790    4831    4928
1946   4764    4685    4856
1947   5093    5097    5267
1948   5134    5275    5204
1949   5092    5100    5064
1950   5042    5180    4996
1951   4742    4928    4622
1952   4602    4681    4528
1953   4620    4525    4438
1954   4582    4520    4511
1955   4305    4154    4292
1956   4197    3981    4226
1957   4170    4032    4287
1958   4192    4100    4467
1959   3984    3934    4276
1960   3939    4013    4407
1961   3893    4090    4438
1962   3864    4031    4345
1963   3891    4128    4580
1964   3842    4113    4383
1965   3869    4147    4200
1966   3916    4144    4151
1967   4020    4326    4364
1968   4009    4359    4216
1969   4101    4364    4172
1970   4365    4505    4374
1971   4414    4520    4315
1972   4429    4506    4102
1973   4530    4426    4007
1974   4953    4866    4343
1975   5392    5436    4698
1976   5069    4933    4321
1977   5204    4750    4283
1978   5578    5031    4489
1979   5654    5003    4475
1980   5653    4864    4469``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   5640    6524    7145
1922   6114    6616    7261
1923   5735    6144    6642
1924   5946    6281    6846
1925   5756    5950    6236
1926   5205    5446    5451
1927   5061    5265    5292
1928   4510    4554    4572
1929   3957    3849    3703
1930   4000    3874    3785
1931   4283    4144    4175
1932   5180    5196    5384
1933   5741    6010    5965
1934   4898    4882    4835
1935   5179    5343    5153
1936   4389    4483    4232
1937   4007    3975    3843
1938   4703    4611    4525
1939   4465    4397    4378
1940   4571    4410    4624
1941   5212    4872    5602
1942   5663    5479    6495
1943   5309    5231    6296
1944   5004    5032    6223
1945   4753    5070    6315
1946   4559    5119    6174
1947   5095    5909    7581
1948   5124    6124    8276
1949   5097    6337    8097
1950   5385    6884    8023
1951   5216    6338    7159
1952   5043    6090    6802
1953   5014    6220    6486
1954   5299    6364    6527
1955   4910    5265    5285
1956   4666    4866    4705
1957   4787    5001    4562
1958   5208    5252    4741
1959   4655    4515    4049
1960   4564    4444    3940
1961   4553    4352    3879
1962   4390    3995    3671
1963   4487    4061    3731
1964   4195    3782    3528
1965   4008    3607    3422
1966   3899    3534    3367
1967   3970    3652    3459
1968   3821    3543    3388
1969   3763    3514    3365
1970   3886    3655    3381
1971   3851    3605    3350
1972   3758    3537    3342
1973   3688    3486    3259
1974   3964    3602    3034
1975   4332    3573    2625
1976   3960    3422    2680
1977   3918    3437    2454
1978   4022    3077    2286
1979   3871    2754    2395
1980   3613    2518    2538``````

Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   232067    247485    316952
1922   151600    188092    315778
1923   123899    160172    270548
1924   174003    186405    280406
1925   132071    169687    304048
1926   154641    172446    282722
1927   172715    121438    254592
1928    94776     72213    133345
1929    66718     34566     47864
1930    73932     43015     63518
1931    82176     70932    123930
1932   109653    158673    361411
1933   122856    195986    413477
1934    92804    117516    267143
1935   118641    194164    379588
1936    96564    130727    206318
1937    55187     81351    100226
1938    78041    148373    263767
1939    69605    158977    224839
1940    77263    169126    206213
1941   107452    229875    289616
1942   148695    344728    419934
1943   150804    307580    423617
1944   129820    299830    288720
1945   154894    293153    189777
1946   146731    244240    175505
1947   204868    321872    267334
1948   206960    386824    257651
1949   254875    386053    250206
1950   239300    308977    223826
1951   207357    255982    190454
1952   211389    241786    140814
1953   187332    242453    145354
1954   218280    200996    162901
1955   170882    100320     95425
1956   146652     91387     73435
1957   134343     93022     89295
1958   164386     93481    105247
1959   126070     62003     58153
1960   107266     57278     60093
1961   104607     57541     52765
1962    95381     37665     38633
1963   111577     47859     52909
1964    75644     36881     27502
1965    49083     27052     10267
1966    53109     24795      3986
1967    61442     41781     33238
1968    46751     30442     21071
1969    44476     30258     25153
1970    52376     52304     88274
1971    54373     48480     84909
1972    41592     49200     59088
1973    41726     43340     41597
1974    65334     90697     98291
1975    97349    152481    156496
1976    85339    135610     88232
1977   101322    159973     73151
1978   119269    261135     87144
1979   129292    329479     73888
1980   147856    375781     62326``````
This completes the 80% stock data.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
New TIPS at 1% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.8%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.8%.
There were three failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.9%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   7288    4481    5984
1922   6902    5147    5671
1923   6132    5682    5251
1924   5396    6188    5274
1925   4833    6481    4960
1926   4478    5977    4810
1927   4864    5291    5150
1928   5057    4659    4752
1929   4910    4227    4346
1930   5135    4061    4385
1931   5255    4276    4507
1932   5295    5153    5117
1933   5465    5765    5704
1934   4961    5352    5084
1935   4931    5763    5392
1936   4678    5080    4849
1937   4746    4645    4406
1938   5180    5050    4829
1939   5213    4937    4656
1940   5421    5039    4593
1941   5854    5712    4985
1942   6092    6035    5251
1943   5900    5766    5167
1944   5755    5536    4829
1945   5686    5228    4738
1946   5869    5122    4829
1947   6155    5355    5024
1948   6037    5416    4821
1949   5904    5144    4688
1950   5854    5315    4701
1951   5377    5083    4348
1952   5114    4790    4274
1953   5126    4573    4198
1954   4973    4535    4271
1955   4634    4138    4157
1956   4520    3925    4189
1957   4450    3992    4292
1958   4386    4034    4487
1959   4104    3865    4380
1960   4013    4013    4667
1961   3908    4164    4766
1962   3880    4131    4738
1963   3892    4268    5135
1964   3834    4326    4948
1965   3923    4506    4686
1966   4052    4577    4638
1967   4211    4876    4932
1968   4226    5054    4726
1969   4438    5139    4641
1970   4923    5261    4794
1971   5059    5270    4645
1972   5174    5320    4272
1973   5519    5247    4120
1974   6188    5735    4366
1975   6626    6221    4519
1976   6264    5610    4147
1977   6578    5245    4102
1978   7074    5431    4244
1979   7222    5361    4234
1980   7168    5092    4221``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   4815    5275    5067
1922   5569    5599    5480
1923   5496    5404    5219
1924   5780    5540    5305
1925   5809    5439    4986
1926   5268    5058    4410
1927   5113    4933    4295
1928   4571    4303    3822
1929   4012    3662    3224
1930   3970    3546    3190
1931   4211    3665    3376
1932   4937    4299    4001
1933   5550    4969    4438
1934   4814    4211    3858
1935   4940    4473    4004
1936   4226    3936    3487
1937   3838    3555    3251
1938   4306    3871    3581
1939   4075    3738    3519
1940   4154    3741    3698
1941   4692    4054    4372
1942   4923    4384    4853
1943   4608    4229    4786
1944   4407    4150    4869
1945   4224    4257    5106
1946   4157    4518    5366
1947   4468    4973    6197
1948   4417    5075    6658
1949   4415    5323    6657
1950   4808    6097    6881
1951   4789    5824    6276
1952   4696    5717    6027
1953   4740    6025    5813
1954   5076    6234    5783
1955   4927    5267    4801
1956   4808    4941    4325
1957   5017    5115    4114
1958   5547    5278    4142
1959   5039    4536    3564
1960   4909    4426    3434
1961   4886    4271    3346
1962   4752    3833    3180
1963   4816    3811    3197
1964   4441    3501    3028
1965   4193    3293    2942
1966   4031    3202    2889
1967   3972    3271    2944
1968   3746    3155    2890
1969   3634    3114    2871
1970   3657    3200    2869
1971   3570    3128    2839
1972   3467    3067    2828
1973   3397    3029    2769
1974   3589    3090    2606
1975   3814    3024    2329
1976   3504    2905    2311
1977   3463    2908    2072
1978   3518    2621    1855
1979   3387    2318    1820
1980   3128    2052    1870``````
More data with 50% stocks follow.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
New TIPS at 1% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.4%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.4%.
There were two failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.5%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5746    4339    5266
1922   5526    4683    5048
1923   5114    4951    4790
1924   4723    5193    4781
1925   4429    5330    4592
1926   4244    5051    4493
1927   4436    4698    4673
1928   4536    4372    4454
1929   4467    4146    4229
1930   4589    4063    4258
1931   4655    4181    4337
1932   4672    4643    4689
1933   4753    4962    5020
1934   4493    4734    4661
1935   4475    4951    4839
1936   4346    4588    4525
1937   4383    4365    4279
1938   4606    4593    4537
1939   4626    4537    4444
1940   4738    4602    4419
1941   4965    4981    4661
1942   5086    5157    4812
1943   4984    5003    4750
1944   4908    4875    4546
1945   4873    4705    4485
1946   4973    4654    4537
1947   5122    4780    4645
1948   5059    4804    4521
1949   4987    4648    4433
1950   4958    4731    4432
1951   4710    4597    4228
1952   4573    4435    4179
1953   4578    4318    4133
1954   4496    4292    4165
1955   4324    4082    4095
1956   4266    3972    4107
1957   4231    4004    4159
1958   4197    4023    4258
1959   4054    3933    4193
1960   4007    4006    4341
1961   3954    4081    4394
1962   3940    4064    4381
1963   3945    4134    4597
1964   3916    4162    4504
1965   3960    4255    4378
1966   4026    4297    4366
1967   4106    4459    4549
1968   4115    4557    4452
1969   4223    4615    4425
1970   4471    4700    4540
1971   4543    4717    4468
1972   4606    4759    4264
1973   4791    4741    4187
1974   5144    5039    4354
1975   5371    5319    4446
1976   5186    4973    4211
1977   5358    4778    4180
1978   5621    4885    4259
1979   5700    4839    4243
1980   5671    4678    4222``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   4663    5070    5106
1922   5084    5237    5341
1923   5011    5080    5118
1924   5153    5142    5147
1925   5148    5060    4903
1926   4812    4795    4485
1927   4727    4719    4405
1928   4410    4320    4079
1929   4079    3912    3670
1930   4065    3852    3655
1931   4222    3943    3792
1932   4674    4362    4221
1933   5047    4792    4510
1934   4588    4285    4097
1935   4669    4450    4191
1936   4230    4093    3837
1937   3996    3849    3677
1938   4293    4063    3902
1939   4154    3976    3858
1940   4206    3982    3976
1941   4545    4188    4424
1942   4677    4387    4724
1943   4472    4273    4654
1944   4338    4209    4683
1945   4221    4260    4817
1946   4182    4415    4987
1947   4359    4683    5512
1948   4317    4725    5780
1949   4301    4847    5759
1950   4511    5287    5916
1951   4483    5107    5522
1952   4418    5028    5362
1953   4433    5196    5243
1954   4605    5316    5238
1955   4509    4756    4605
1956   4440    4571    4310
1957   4556    4687    4203
1958   4845    4808    4240
1959   4560    4362    3857
1960   4507    4316    3785
1961   4505    4239    3735
1962   4437    3988    3628
1963   4501    3997    3651
1964   4296    3808    3539
1965   4167    3687    3484
1966   4089    3638    3455
1967   4084    3695    3499
1968   3959    3624    3463
1969   3903    3604    3451
1970   3933    3667    3449
1971   3883    3621    3428
1972   3820    3580    3421
1973   3781    3556    3376
1974   3912    3597    3261
1975   4050    3548    3082
1976   3843    3468    3080
1977   3813    3469    2938
1978   3841    3289    2821
1979   3754    3108    2820
1980   3593    2962    2871``````

Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   146430    132929    123118
1922   115869    117335    133870
1923   101941    105629    120231
1924   128227    116979    124351
1925   108067    110319    131439
1926   119508    108232    115998
1927   129280     87253    108754
1928    88280     60026     63549
1929    70003     36347     25668
1930    73368     39075     25788
1931    77640     52524     45880
1932    93087     92622    123268
1933   102768    115539    160477
1934    84298     79002    108472
1935    98633    111480    143908
1936    85293     82078     84082
1937    59669     58733     45332
1938    72683     86711     99162
1939    67265     90507     87426
1940    72049     96329     87257
1941    90390    126067    126771
1942   110957    166505    167757
1943   111530    153697    165210
1944   101095    150567    127490
1945   114077    148625     96744
1946   112503    137430     96643
1947   137736    164564    128468
1948   138203    184080    123420
1949   158827    183828    118779
1950   155373    165238    115354
1951   141097    143570     98042
1952   142557    136204     76566
1953   132680    136842     76940
1954   147133    122837     82650
1955   124052     75602     50670
1956   112362     69841     39280
1957   106920     70803     45331
1958   121953     71372     52488
1959   101611     51882     28328
1960    92061     48909     28684
1961    90417     48241     25302
1962    84897     35946     17219
1963    93975     41868     24036
1964    73285     34364     11093
1965    55852     28077      3248
1966    58789     26946       592
1967    64122     36901     13339
1968    53853     30398      8209
1969    52104     30748     11223
1970    57010     42388     34328
1971    57867     39800     33316
1972    48702     40388     25861
1973    49330     39172     24238
1974    64434     63134     52830
1975    81557     88935     78705
1976    74283     79884     49852
1977    83550     90940     46323
1978    93645    131364     58769
1979    99943    158931     56485
1980   109541    175953     51761``````
This completes the data with 50% stocks.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
New TIPS at 2% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.8%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.8%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.9%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   7860    5334    7699
1922   7390    6189    6973
1923   6401    6556    6314
1924   5719    7171    6422
1925   5087    7214    5829
1926   4708    6392    5489
1927   5108    5550    5766
1928   5045    4775    4966
1929   4657    4146    4245
1930   4899    4067    4356
1931   5115    4403    4643
1932   5519    5727    5862
1933   5887    6396    6667
1934   5085    5532    5491
1935   5204    6119    6030
1936   4702    5063    5013
1937   4592    4505    4356
1938   5218    5257    5247
1939   5140    5039    5002
1940   5320    5136    4992
1941   5871    5983    5721
1942   6428    6659    6529
1943   6192    6362    6469
1944   5907    6046    5912
1945   5728    5663    5734
1946   5667    5388    5613
1947   6298    6143    6346
1948   6381    6491    6258
1949   6307    6192    6043
1950   6220    6369    5950
1951   5640    5918    5288
1952   5372    5465    5136
1953   5410    5176    4983
1954   5344    5180    5141
1955   4800    4481    4745
1956   4585    4148    4631
1957   4531    4251    4753
1958   4578    4391    5106
1959   4169    4072    4753
1960   4080    4235    5011
1961   3989    4390    5063
1962   3931    4274    4882
1963   3986    4465    5317
1964   3889    4436    4929
1965   3944    4502    4558
1966   4037    4489    4448
1967   4242    4828    4802
1968   4218    4881    4507
1969   4400    4871    4398
1970   4919    5102    4705
1971   5009    5110    4577
1972   5032    5061    4189
1973   5218    4882    4008
1974   6023    5630    4536
1975   6870    6629    5122
1976   6242    5734    4516
1977   6486    5389    4461
1978   7193    5882    4819
1979   7336    5847    4822
1980   7335    5621    4843``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   6600    7724    8209
1922   7508    7990    8530
1923   6944    7324    7712
1924   7365    7601    8083
1925   7088    7112    7230
1926   6166    6338    6094
1927   5907    6036    5861
1928   4955    4887    4781
1929   4008    3763    3474
1930   4058    3773    3576
1931   4508    4169    4139
1932   5981    5803    5958
1933   6928    7118    6885
1934   5545    5377    5214
1935   6004    6123    5720
1936   4700    4781    4316
1937   4061    3968    3719
1938   5193    4959    4768
1939   4797    4624    4553
1940   4968    4638    4946
1941   6016    5372    6487
1942   6788    6388    7946
1943   6236    6035    7709
1944   5759    5753    7661
1945   5355    5860    7858
1946   5027    5964    7626
1947   5970    7321    9919
1948   6056    7743   11099
1949   6054    8182   10832
1950   6617    9185   10672
1951   6360    8270    9262
1952   6075    7859    8657
1953   6044    8103    8091
1954   6603    8344    8113
1955   5906    6391    6107
1956   5455    5678    5158
1957   5673    5876    4876
1958   6448    6250    5118
1959   5428    4994    4047
1960   5223    4836    3854
1961   5180    4648    3745
1962   4870    4028    3421
1963   4992    4097    3490
1964   4460    3637    3179
1965   4113    3342    3012
1966   3900    3214    2918
1967   3970    3376    3046
1968   3705    3198    2936
1969   3589    3144    2898
1970   3761    3349    2919
1971   3695    3269    2874
1972   3543    3164    2861
1973   3424    3084    2741
1974   3847    3262    2397
1975   4442    3226    1738
1976   3869    2995    1798
1977   3813    3023    1405
1978   3998    2430    1078
1979   3765    1868    1213
1980   3339    1426    1415``````
More follows.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
New TIPS at 2% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.4%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.4%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.5%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   6053    4823    6293
1922   5784    5260    5815
1923   5255    5428    5409
1924   4890    5724    5441
1925   4559    5724    5086
1926   4361    5275    4875
1927   4560    4839    5019
1928   4531    4434    4573
1929   4337    4098    4166
1930   4467    4063    4236
1931   4582    4246    4412
1932   4789    4954    5122
1933   4970    5302    5577
1934   4557    4832    4893
1935   4614    5144    5207
1936   4358    4580    4616
1937   4304    4287    4243
1938   4626    4705    4780
1939   4589    4590    4641
1940   4686    4652    4647
1941   4975    5130    5092
1942   5261    5505    5565
1943   5135    5335    5509
1944   4986    5156    5169
1945   4895    4943    5051
1946   4868    4795    4978
1947   5198    5211    5397
1948   5238    5392    5335
1949   5197    5216    5192
1950   5147    5297    5125
1951   4845    5042    4744
1952   4706    4793    4648
1953   4723    4636    4557
1954   4686    4631    4632
1955   4408    4261    4408
1956   4299    4086    4340
1957   4272    4138    4404
1958   4294    4208    4587
1959   4086    4039    4391
1960   4041    4120    4526
1961   3995    4197    4556
1962   3965    4137    4462
1963   3993    4236    4701
1964   3943    4220    4499
1965   3971    4254    4311
1966   4018    4251    4261
1967   4122    4435    4477
1968   4111    4467    4326
1969   4204    4472    4280
1970   4469    4615    4486
1971   4517    4629    4425
1972   4532    4613    4208
1973   4634    4532    4111
1974   5058    4977    4455
1975   5498    5554    4818
1976   5174    5045    4434
1977   5309    4860    4395
1978   5684    5144    4606
1979   5761    5116    4593
1980   5759    4976    4588``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   5799    6738    7422
1922   6289    6837    7549
1923   5900    6348    6900
1924   6118    6492    7116
1925   5923    6148    6475
1926   5353    5622    5650
1927   5206    5435    5483
1928   4637    4693    4725
1929   4065    3957    3810
1930   4108    3982    3893
1931   4398    4263    4301
1932   5325    5358    5572
1933   5905    6206    6186
1934   5035    5032    4998
1935   5325    5511    5333
1936   4510    4615    4366
1937   4114    4085    3955
1938   4831    4749    4672
1939   4586    4525    4517
1940   4694    4539    4773
1941   5355    5022    5800
1942   5820    5653    6738
1943   5458    5396    6529
1944   5143    5190    6451
1945   4886    5228    6547
1946   4688    5279    6400
1947   5240    6101    7878
1948   5271    6323    8608
1949   5243    6546    8423
1950   5541    7119    8352
1951   5367    6551    7444
1952   5189    6292    7071
1953   5159    6428    6741
1954   5453    6580    6787
1955   5052    5437    5480
1956   4800    5021    4871
1957   4925    5162    4722
1958   5359    5424    4911
1959   4788    4656    4184
1960   4695    4582    4069
1961   4683    4487    4005
1962   4514    4116    3787
1963   4615    4185    3849
1964   4312    3894    3636
1965   4119    3712    3524
1966   4006    3636    3466
1967   4081    3758    3563
1968   3927    3645    3489
1969   3866    3615    3465
1970   3995    3762    3483
1971   3958    3711    3451
1972   3862    3639    3443
1973   3790    3587    3359
1974   4075    3709    3124
1975   4455    3681    2694
1976   4073    3525    2755
1977   4030    3541    2522
1978   4138    3169    2343
1979   3984    2834    2455
1980   3719    2589    2603``````

Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   234795    254958    333297
1922   153624    194047    332382
1923   125549    165194    284727
1924   176304    192328    295285
1925   133854    175030    320046
1926   156551    177594    297189
1927   174811    125114    267565
1928    95846     74142    139603
1929    67194     35015     48714
1930    74436     43546     64783
1931    82876     72254    128294
1932   110999    163118    378639
1933   124536    201992    434410
1934    93901    120712    279644
1935   120132    199730    398060
1936    97499    133652    214928
1937    55560     82356    102971
1938    78847    151926    275222
1939    70232    162377    234018
1940    77944    172863    214885
1941   108627    236051    303366
1942   150486    354685    440795
1943   152565    316403    444482
1944   131280    308174    302921
1945   156504    301118    199165
1946   148206    250824    184140
1947   207241    331376    281113
1948   209477    398410    271177
1949   257935    397710    263455
1950   242353    318692    235943
1951   209953    263926    200742
1952   213975    249208    148494
1953   189697    249926    153340
1954   221112    207438    171967
1955   172931    103442    100709
1956   148324     94089     77465
1957   135959     95818     94208
1958   166480     96449    111134
1959   127536     63798     61324
1960   108560     58931     63342
1961   105879     59180     55600
1962    96472     38649     40565
1963   112909     49164     55613
1964    76513     37705     28654
1965    49623     27488     10362
1966    53621     25039      3493
1967    62081     42478     34141
1968    47188     30739     20901
1969    44847     30450     24686
1970    52870     53150     90893
1971    54834     49199     87253
1972    41884     49662     60136
1973    41939     43584     42048
1974    65907     92606    102317
1975    98437    156608    164105
1976    86106    138735     92223
1977   102208    163683     76555
1978   120568    268128     91639
1979   130768    338559     77858
1980   149569    386307     65787``````
This completes the 80% stock data.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
New TIPS at 2% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.0%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.0%.
There were three failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.1%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   7514    4716    6310
1922   7128    5409    5993
1923   6352    5961    5559
1924   5610    6477    5585
1925   5045    6776    5260
1926   4690    6253    5100
1927   5085    5551    5456
1928   5282    4903    5037
1929   5129    4456    4603
1930   5353    4285    4639
1931   5470    4506    4766
1932   5508    5408    5412
1933   5684    6045    6038
1934   5177    5617    5383
1935   5149    6040    5709
1936   4894    5332    5131
1937   4962    4883    4660
1938   5400    5300    5107
1939   5433    5183    4923
1940   5641    5287    4858
1941   6076    5981    5273
1942   6316    6313    5554
1943   6124    6036    5466
1944   5979    5799    5112
1945   5910    5482    5016
1946   6094    5375    5112
1947   6380    5614    5318
1948   6260    5677    5108
1949   6127    5400    4969
1950   6077    5577    4986
1951   5595    5338    4617
1952   5330    5037    4539
1953   5344    4816    4462
1954   5189    4778    4539
1955   4848    4370    4419
1956   4733    4152    4451
1957   4662    4221    4560
1958   4598    4265    4764
1959   4314    4091    4650
1960   4222    4243    4954
1961   4116    4398    5056
1962   4088    4364    5024
1963   4101    4505    5439
1964   4042    4564    5240
1965   4132    4749    4964
1966   4263    4821    4910
1967   4423    5128    5219
1968   4437    5307    4999
1969   4651    5393    4907
1970   5143    5520    5069
1971   5279    5526    4909
1972   5395    5574    4519
1973   5741    5497    4360
1974   6415    6000    4622
1975   6857    6500    4787
1976   6491    5868    4395
1977   6807    5494    4349
1978   7307    5688    4501
1979   7456    5618    4492
1980   7401    5344    4480``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   5144    5696    5547
1922   5957    6064    6022
1923   5884    5854    5731
1924   6190    6009    5831
1925   6220    5900    5472
1926   5633    5474    4817
1927   5469    5336    4688
1928   4884    4638    4151
1929   4277    3926    3471
1930   4228    3797    3428
1931   4484    3928    3636
1932   5270    4629    4342
1933   5939    5375    4843
1934   5143    4538    4185
1935   5281    4826    4351
1936   4509    4229    3764
1937   4088    3806    3495
1938   4592    4158    3868
1939   4345    4010    3797
1940   4428    4014    3998
1941   5008    4364    4760
1942   5259    4728    5305
1943   4923    4559    5227
1944   4708    4472    5319
1945   4512    4588    5588
1946   4444    4876    5886
1947   4778    5378    6826
1948   4725    5489    7345
1949   4724    5762    7346
1950   5150    6626    7616
1951   5128    6324    6930
1952   5027    6202    6652
1953   5074    6541    6415
1954   5438    6775    6386
1955   5277    5710    5272
1956   5147    5348    4732
1957   5371    5543    4494
1958   5941    5726    4528
1959   5390    4904    3872
1960   5253    4783    3724
1961   5226    4611    3625
1962   5079    4128    3434
1963   5150    4105    3453
1964   4743    3762    3260
1965   4474    3533    3161
1966   4297    3432    3101
1967   4238    3508    3162
1968   3994    3380    3099
1969   3874    3334    3077
1970   3901    3429    3075
1971   3807    3350    3043
1972   3696    3282    3030
1973   3622    3242    2966
1974   3831    3311    2783
1975   4074    3242    2469
1976   3742    3112    2455
1977   3699    3117    2192
1978   3761    2804    1944
1979   3622    2470    1900
1980   3346    2178    1954``````
More data with 50% stocks follow.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
New TIPS at 2% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.6%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.6%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.7%.
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5961    4560    5546
1922   5740    4918    5321
1923   5324    5195    5055
1924   4930    5442    5046
1925   4635    5581    4850
1926   4450    5291    4745
1927   4646    4930    4934
1928   4749    4596    4703
1929   4677    4362    4462
1930   4798    4277    4491
1931   4863    4397    4574
1932   4879    4874    4946
1933   4963    5205    5299
1934   4702    4970    4920
1935   4683    5192    5108
1936   4554    4817    4774
1937   4591    4586    4512
1938   4817    4821    4785
1939   4837    4763    4686
1940   4949    4830    4659
1941   5177    5220    4916
1942   5299    5402    5076
1943   5196    5243    5010
1944   5120    5111    4796
1945   5086    4936    4732
1946   5186    4883    4787
1947   5336    5013    4900
1948   5271    5039    4772
1949   5199    4879    4679
1950   5170    4965    4680
1951   4920    4826    4467
1952   4781    4660    4415
1953   4787    4541    4368
1954   4705    4515    4402
1955   4531    4299    4328
1956   4473    4185    4340
1957   4437    4219    4395
1958   4403    4239    4499
1959   4258    4146    4430
1960   4212    4222    4586
1961   4158    4298    4642
1962   4144    4281    4626
1963   4150    4353    4853
1964   4120    4382    4754
1965   4165    4477    4622
1966   4231    4520    4607
1967   4313    4686    4800
1968   4321    4786    4697
1969   4430    4844    4667
1970   4681    4933    4788
1971   4753    4948    4710
1972   4816    4990    4496
1973   5002    4971    4416
1974   5359    5278    4593
1975   5587    5566    4691
1976   5400    5209    4444
1977   5573    5008    4411
1978   5839    5119    4496
1979   5919    5074    4481
1980   5888    4909    4459``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   4951    5434    5538
1922   5407    5624    5808
1923   5331    5454    5557
1924   5484    5525    5592
1925   5479    5436    5315
1926   5113    5141    4839
1927   5023    5057    4748
1928   4681    4615    4380
1929   4322    4161    3913
1930   4305    4093    3893
1931   4473    4193    4046
1932   4961    4657    4530
1933   5367    5135    4860
1934   4872    4574    4391
1935   4960    4756    4496
1936   4484    4359    4095
1937   4230    4087    3913
1938   4550    4325    4167
1939   4401    4227    4116
1940   4456    4234    4249
1941   4822    4463    4757
1942   4965    4683    5098
1943   4746    4558    5017
1944   4601    4488    5051
1945   4475    4544    5205
1946   4436    4716    5401
1947   4626    5012    5996
1948   4582    5056    6299
1949   4565    5192    6277
1950   4793    5685    6464
1951   4762    5486    6018
1952   4692    5397    5841
1953   4708    5583    5709
1954   4894    5718    5705
1955   4791    5101    4988
1956   4717    4895    4652
1957   4841    5027    4528
1958   5153    5162    4571
1959   4844    4667    4134
1960   4788    4616    4051
1961   4786    4531    3994
1962   4712    4252    3870
1963   4782    4263    3895
1964   4559    4052    3766
1965   4418    3917    3703
1966   4333    3863    3668
1967   4329    3925    3716
1968   4194    3846    3674
1969   4133    3823    3659
1970   4166    3893    3656
1971   4113    3841    3632
1972   4044    3796    3624
1973   4003    3769    3572
1974   4144    3814    3441
1975   4293    3761    3237
1976   4071    3673    3237
1977   4039    3675    3079
1978   4070    3476    2945
1979   3977    3277    2942
1980   3805    3115    2999``````
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   151225    144035    142422
1922   120040    127577    154985
1923   105653    114909    139467
1924   132853    127326    144305
1925   112056    120132    152710
1926   123691    117648    135147
1927   133779     94960    126787
1928    91296     65200     74682
1929    72110     39189     31120
1930    75468     41964     30987
1931    79954     56507     53780
1932    96271    100358    142446
1933   106582    125690    185209
1934    87246     85731    125486
1935   102156    121029    166055
1936    88052     88634     97229
1937    61431     62919     52441
1938    75044     93519    113985
1939    69353     97325    100343
1940    74273    103636    100080
1941    93446    136373    145544
1942   114812    180366    192547
1943   115321    166406    189606
1944   104481    162851    146501
1945   117756    160630    111379
1946   116218    148750    111440
1947   142434    178429    148054
1948   142958    199556    142394
1949   164212    199322    137265
1950   160913    179636    133586
1951   146070    156028    113892
1952   147497    147963     89306
1953   137372    148725     89975
1954   152394    133732     96774
1955   128332     82308     60070
1956   116182     75982     47115
1957   110656     77097     54305
1958   126307     77857     62521
1959   105098     56520     34815
1960    95288     53320     35326
1961    93595     52599     31325
1962    87815     39187     22198
1963    97257     45672     29969
1964    75817     37405     15040
1965    57774     30491      5820
1966    60730     29184      2848
1967    66282     39981     17496
1968    55625     32821     11539
1969    53777     33121     14885
1970    58881     45746     41136
1971    59690     42858     39557
1972    50177     43299     30596
1973    50764     41940     28429
1974    66489     68112     61151
1975    84305     96280     90857
1976    76582     86101     57680
1977    86104     98001     53672
1978    96751    142015     68126
1979   103357    171987     65648
1980   113292    190438     60349``````
This completes the data with 50% stocks.

Have fun.

John R.