Algorithm G2 with TIPS

Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

Moderator: hocus2004

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Algorithm G2 with TIPS

I have collected data using algorithm G2 with TIPS instead of commercial paper. These results are similar to those with commercial paper when the TIPS interest rate is 1%.

Algorithm G2 with TIPS

Gummy recently came up with an interesting withdrawal algorithm. It adjusts withdrawals according to the percentage earnings yield, 100E10/P or 100/ [P/E10], and an offset. I have included two algorithms of this sort in each of my Gummy series of calculators. Algorithm G1 makes an adjustment as a percentage of a portfolio's current balance. Algorithm G2 makes an adjustment as a percentage of a portfolio's initial balance.

My implementation is highly flexible.

I used my Gummy 02 calculator in this survey. It is similar to the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08 except that it includes Algorithms G1 and G2.

Algorithm G2 appears in row 9, columns A through H. It has the form:

Initial Withdrawal Rate = (the contents of cell B9)*(Initial Balance)+(special inflation term G2)*G3*(100E10/P-G4)*(Initial Balance)

Gummy's Inflation Term G2 (0=none,1=PPI, 2=CPI) is in cell I24.
Gummy's Multiplier G3 is in cell F25. This term should a negative number whenever withdrawals are to increase as the percentage earnings yield increases.
Gummy's Offset G4 is in cell I25.

To use the algorithm, set Gummy Algorithm 2? Y=1 equal to 1 in cell F23.

General Procedure

I examined two portfolio types: one consisting of 50% stocks and 50% TIPS and the other of 80% stocks and 20% TIPS. I looked at TIPS interest rates of 0%, 1% and 2%.

I decided to apply the algorithm to match inflation according to the CPI. That is, I set term G2 = 2 in all cases.

I decided to look at slopes of 0.25 and 0.50. That is, I set G3 equal to (0.25), which is minus 0.25, and to (0.50), which is minus 0.50.

I set the offset equal to 2.5%. That is, I set G4 = 2.5.

By setting the offset to 2.5%, there is no adjustment when the earnings yield 100E10/P is 2.5%. That is, there is no adjustment when P/E10 equals 40.

When P/E10 equals 20, the percentage earnings yield is 5.0%. The withdrawal rate adjustment is (slope)*(5%-2.5%) in real dollars. This is (0.25)*(2.5%) or (0.50)*(2.5%) depending upon the choice of the slope term G3. These adjustments increase the withdrawal rate by 0.625% or 1.250%.

When P/E10 equals 10, the percentage earnings yield is 10%. The withdrawal rate adjustment is (slope)*(10%-2.5%) in real dollars. This is (0.25)*(7.5%) or (0.50)*(7.5%), which is an increase of 1.875% or 3.75%.

My final step was to adjust the amount in cell B9, the regular input for the withdrawal rate, in increments of 0.1% as high as I could without any failures in 30 years.

I started with initial balances of \$100000. I set the expenses to 0.20%. I adjusted withdrawals (the term in cell B9) to match inflation according to the CPI. I rebalanced the portfolio annually.

I determined the five-year rolling averages of the amount withdrawn at years 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 for historical sequences starting in 1921-1980. That is, the five years used in these calculations end at years 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30.

Tables

Tables with all of these outputs follow this post.

Observations

Using a slope of 0.25 (that is, setting G3 equal to minus 0.25) was consistently better than using a slope of 0.50. This was true with all of the TIPS interest rates.

With a slope of 0.50, the withdrawal algorithm over-corrected during the bubble years in the late 1990s. We see this in the low withdrawal amounts at years 25 and 30. (Be careful when looking at sequences that extend beyond 2002 because they include dummy data. When the TIPS interest rate was 0%, there were some conditions with negative withdrawal amounts at year 30. Because of the dummy data and the high valuations with low levels of earnings yield, it was necessary to make deposits in order to implement the algorithm.)

WITH A TIPS INTEREST RATE OF 0%:

With a slope of 0.50 and a portfolio with 50% stocks, the (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts generally stayed above \$2100 with a few exceptions beginning in year 20. With 80% stocks, this lower limit was also \$2100 with exceptions.

In both cases, the maximum (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts are close to \$5800. Overall, a portfolio with 50% stocks seems to do better than a portfolio with 80% stocks.

With a slope of 0.25, the income floors were \$3000 in both cases. There were exceptions. The ceilings were close to \$4800 in both cases. Once again, the portfolio with 50% stocks generally did better than the portfolio with 80% stocks.

I determined the balances at years 10, 20 and 30 for both 50% stocks and 80% stocks when the slope was 0.25.

When the portfolio had 50% stocks, there were 21 times that the balance fell below \$40000. They occurred in 13 separate sequences. There were 9 times that the balance fell below \$30000. They occurred in 7 separate sequences. There were 5 times that the balance fell below \$20000. They occurred in 5 separate sequences.

When the portfolio had 80% stocks, there were 10 times that the balance fell below \$40000. They occurred in 6 separate sequences. There were 5 times that the balance fell below \$30000. They occurred in 3 separate sequences. There were 2 times that the balance fell below \$20000. They occurred in 2 separate sequences.

WITH A TIPS INTEREST RATE OF 1%:

With a slope of 0.50 and a portfolio with 50% stocks, the (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts generally stayed above \$2400 with a few exceptions beginning in year 20. With 80% stocks, this lower limit was \$2200 with exceptions.

The maximum (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts are close to \$6000 with 50% stocks and \$5700 with 80% stocks.

With a slope of 0.25, the income floors were \$3300 with 50% stocks and \$3100 with 80% stocks. There were exceptions. The ceilings were close to \$5000 in both cases. Once again, the portfolio with 50% stocks generally did better than the portfolio with 80% stocks.

I determined the balances at years 10, 20 and 30 for both 50% stocks and 80% stocks when the slope was 0.25.

When the portfolio had 50% stocks, there were 19 times that the balance fell below \$40000. They occurred in 13 separate sequences. There were 9 times that the balance fell below \$30000. They occurred in 7 separate sequences. There were 6 times that the balance fell below \$20000. They occurred in 6 separate sequences.

When the portfolio had 80% stocks, there were 10 times that the balance fell below \$40000. They occurred in 6 separate sequences. There were 5 times that the balance fell below \$30000. They occurred in 3 separate sequences. There were 2 times that the balance fell below \$20000. They occurred in 2 separate sequences.

WITH A TIPS INTEREST RATE OF 2%:

With a slope of 0.50 and a portfolio with 50% stocks, the (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts generally stayed above \$2700 with a few exceptions beginning in year 20. With 80% stocks, this lower limit was \$2300 with exceptions.

The maximum (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts are close to \$6300 with 50% stocks and \$6000 with 80% stocks.

With a slope of 0.25, the income floors were \$3500 with 50% stocks and \$3200 with 80% stocks. There were exceptions. The ceilings were close to \$5300 with 50% stocks and \$5000 with 80% stocks. Once again, the portfolio with 50% stocks generally did better than the portfolio with 80% stocks.

I determined the balances at years 10, 20 and 30 for both 50% stocks and 80% stocks when the slope was 0.25.

When the portfolio had 50% stocks, there were 12 times that the balance fell below \$40000. They occurred in 7 separate sequences. There were 7 times that the balance fell below \$30000. They occurred in 6 separate sequences. There were 2 times that the balance fell below \$20000. They occurred in 2 separate sequences.

When the portfolio had 80% stocks, there were 7 times that the balance fell below \$40000. They occurred in 4 separate sequences. There were 4 times that the balance fell below \$30000. They occurred in 2 separate sequences. There were 2 times that the balance fell below \$20000. They occurred in 2 separate sequences.

Algorithm G2 is one of the better variable withdrawal rate algorithms.

The portfolio with 50% stocks and 50% TIPS provides a better income stream. The portfolio with 80% stocks and 20% TIPS provides balances that did not fall as much.

Having TIPS in a portfolio is similar to having commercial paper when the TIPS interest rate is 1%. At higher interest rates, TIPS add more. At lower interest rates, commercial paper does better.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 0% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.50) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 0.9%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 0.9%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 1.0%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5823    2732    4436
1922   5014    3077    3869
1923   4314    3635    3445
1924   3487    4022    3349
1925   2916    4389    3061
1926   2614    4319    3130
1927   2925    3709    3619
1928   3481    3261    3776
1929   3818    3078    3965
1930   4229    2826    4187
1931   4225    2987    4132
1932   3691    3595    4118
1933   3350    3874    4157
1934   3161    4051    4131
1935   2940    4297    4260
1936   3009    4153    4372
1937   3490    4000    4253
1938   3769    4030    4139
1939   4011    4082    3982
1940   4233    4178    3696
1941   4193    4421    3511
1942   4119    4400    3436
1943   4079    4204    3384
1944   4128    4047    3085
1945   4205    3739    2996
1946   4388    3452    2975
1947   4357    3355    2990
1948   4185    3348    2832
1949   4047    3084    2738
1950   3764    3043    2658
1951   3459    2986    2462
1952   3257    2833    2435
1953   3218    2628    2368
1954   2965    2559    2401
1955   2839    2362    2428
1956   2812    2208    2556
1957   2696    2239    2645
1958   2524    2223    2747
1959   2388    2169    2930
1960   2279    2320    3447
1961   2162    2501    3716
1962   2165    2562    3976
1963   2130    2646    4520
1964   2119    2879    4822
1965   2259    3387    4810
1966   2439    3657    4983
1967   2544    3959    5469
1968   2469    4359    5438
1969   2862    4809    5433
1970   3410    4830    5321
1971   3685    5009    5090
1972   3852    5374    4323
1973   4327    5438    3907
1974   4859    5488    3688
1975   4912    5416    3376
1976   5057    5149    3106
1977   5528    4475    2952
1978   5616    4115    2813
1979   5555    3794    2657
1980   5432    3402    2588``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3307    4450    4739
1922   3827    4376    4717
1923   3979    4285    4476
1924   4243    4374    4398
1925   4414    4412    4060
1926   4274    4521    3687
1927   4144    4431    3495
1928   4038    4150    3281
1929   4024    3900    2808
1930   4119    3604    2747
1931   4345    3376    2845
1932   4398    3433    3114
1933   4307    3577    3191
1934   4053    3095    2754
1935   3825    3156    2821
1936   3423    2925    2373
1937   3157    2673    2206
1938   3261    2696    2462
1939   2962    2553    2394
1940   2917    2476    2574
1941   3075    2592    3009
1942   3120    2847    3325
1943   2888    2728    3298
1944   2739    2646    3421
1945   2591    2722    3837
1946   2446    2836    4034
1947   2661    3117    4489
1948   2651    3214    5008
1949   2644    3419    5270
1950   2808    3921    5274
1951   2855    4052    5345
1952   2865    4255    5744
1953   2905    4743    5769
1954   3169    5062    5711
1955   3551    4953    5463
1956   3768    5085    5183
1957   4052    5556    4513
1958   4607    5634    4143
1959   4865    5494    3699
1960   4862    5358    3284
1961   5038    5125    3068
1962   5484    4415    2860
1963   5548    4012    2661
1964   5448    3627    2412
1965   5298    3188    2285
1966   5058    2962    2030
1967   4393    2828    1925
1968   3906    2540    1676
1969   3603    2378    1486
1970   3225    2338    1322
1971   3013    2102    1203
1972   2763    1856    1026
1973   2541    1678     726
1974   2503    1692     806
1975   2551    1715     807
1976   2234    1460     302
1977   2108    1480    (73)
1978   2071    1392    (12)
1979   1948    1164    (46)
1980   1783     880    (90)``````
Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 0% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.25) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.3%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.3%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.4%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   4870    3422    4257
1922   4475    3599    3988
1923   4122    3845    3761
1924   3727    4028    3722
1925   3445    4182    3560
1926   3283    4119    3560
1927   3436    3815    3786
1928   3686    3571    3823
1929   3825    3453    3883
1930   4027    3333    3994
1931   4031    3427    3980
1932   3801    3768    4023
1933   3661    3922    4073
1934   3535    3967    4012
1935   3443    4101    4093
1936   3445    3998    4106
1937   3663    3906    4026
1938   3820    3949    4009
1939   3931    3966    3926
1940   4041    4016    3794
1941   4042    4161    3758
1942   4026    4175    3782
1943   3998    4075    3748
1944   4011    3989    3586
1945   4041    3833    3537
1946   4125    3695    3519
1947   4131    3698    3596
1948   4055    3710    3537
1949   3987    3582    3485
1950   3856    3578    3458
1951   3697    3522    3322
1952   3595    3431    3284
1953   3577    3328    3242
1954   3462    3303    3268
1955   3376    3164    3217
1956   3351    3073    3251
1957   3299    3094    3295
1958   3228    3104    3361
1959   3140    3045    3412
1960   3088    3119    3663
1961   3033    3204    3791
1962   3028    3221    3906
1963   3020    3270    4178
1964   3005    3370    4313
1965   3067    3612    4299
1966   3151    3740    4382
1967   3212    3897    4630
1968   3104    4029    4571
1969   3362    4306    4605
1970   3643    4325    4561
1971   3775    4413    4446
1972   3795    4536    4008
1973   3997    4572    3806
1974   4360    4664    3781
1975   4408    4657    3674
1976   4461    4505    3511
1977   4693    4175    3439
1978   4752    4027    3411
1979   4726    3878    3350
1980   4668    3692    3323``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3769    4321    4505
1922   4010    4292    4504
1923   4033    4207    4351
1924   4159    4253    4334
1925   4215    4240    4143
1926   4113    4248    3914
1927   4043    4196    3821
1928   3952    4013    3633
1929   3906    3840    3305
1930   3956    3700    3290
1931   4084    3622    3394
1932   4171    3774    3718
1933   4173    3933    3885
1934   3991    3589    3494
1935   3914    3686    3614
1936   3661    3461    3233
1937   3498    3278    3063
1938   3625    3404    3347
1939   3466    3310    3276
1940   3464    3293    3383
1941   3626    3473    3723
1942   3730    3713    3987
1943   3596    3614    3917
1944   3490    3522    3903
1945   3398    3517    4050
1946   3317    3539    4108
1947   3520    3772    4414
1948   3532    3828    4657
1949   3514    3894    4747
1950   3595    4126    4745
1951   3545    4114    4723
1952   3508    4171    4885
1953   3512    4386    4881
1954   3641    4537    4858
1955   3759    4426    4678
1956   3835    4468    4513
1957   3974    4702    4186
1958   4257    4752    4027
1959   4347    4650    3760
1960   4343    4581    3553
1961   4428    4464    3445
1962   4638    4098    3322
1963   4674    3910    3239
1964   4612    3701    3091
1965   4530    3472    3012
1966   4408    3355    2879
1967   4087    3306    2853
1968   3804    3121    2690
1969   3689    3074    2626
1970   3521    3081    2600
1971   3417    2966    2552
1972   3229    2775    2360
1973   3123    2693    2213
1974   3207    2848    2449
1975   3298    3000    2551
1976   3099    2811    2174
1977   3048    2841    1958
1978   3102    2895    2011
1979   3085    2781    1971
1980   3046    2600    1922``````

Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   249066    291618    426359
1922   163300    222382    424974
1923   133349    189156    362854
1924   187534    220796    376502
1925   142234    201031    407450
1926   166071    203939    378578
1927   184943    143691    339856
1928   101122     85079    179124
1929    70507     39243     65589
1930    78163     48531     84905
1931    87295     81919    163193
1932   117856    190155    473284
1933   132550    236150    536553
1934    99724    140377    346448
1935   127878    232515    486242
1936   103284    153802    264794
1937    58227     92875    128933
1938    83561    174625    331812
1939    73933    185057    280513
1940    82043    196242    255327
1941   115986    269378    357170
1942   162052    404223    515620
1943   163875    358200    517698
1944   140522    346523    352836
1945   166910    336237    233385
1946   157234    277904    216390
1947   220892    365014    329331
1948   223261    436438    319268
1949   274221    433618    312361
1950   256694    345799    281260
1951   221812    287177    241998
1952   225551    271836    181269
1953   199472    272464    188630
1954   231715    225722    212337
1955   182023    114997    126262
1956   156519    106130     98166
1957   143001    108009    119193
1958   174009    108058    139694
1959   134612     72622     78315
1960   114507     66873     80875
1961   111722     66932     70908
1962   102415     42998     52524
1963   119348     54447     70963
1964    81374     40381     37457
1965    52633     27853     14586
1966    56780     24078      6507
1967    65535     44076     44678
1968    50497     33421     38128
1969    46475     29475     32601
1970    54867     56592    112254
1971    56433     52087    105812
1972    42940     55128     81922
1973    42410     48397     58338
1974    68230    103616    119113
1975   105765    180540    187616
1976    90237    156401    105388
1977   107188    183434     86933
1978   129116    301440    101381
1979   140301    376785     85302
1980   160250    424751     71898``````
Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 0% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.50) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 0.9%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 0.9%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 1.0%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5795    2594    4306
1922   4985    2945    3731
1923   4291    3543    3324
1924   3444    3938    3214
1925   2872    4337    2951
1926   2577    4289    3050
1927   2894    3678    3561
1928   3475    3247    3756
1929   3832    3086    3973
1930   4242    2827    4190
1931   4232    2975    4121
1932   3665    3545    4056
1933   3308    3822    4078
1934   3147    4036    4098
1935   2911    4272    4210
1936   3006    4152    4359
1937   3501    4009    4255
1938   3765    4014    4104
1939   4015    4074    3954
1940   4238    4170    3660
1941   4190    4403    3429
1942   4095    4355    3281
1943   4059    4159    3231
1944   4117    4008    2946
1945   4202    3701    2865
1946   4399    3424    2872
1947   4347    3269    2796
1948   4161    3235    2600
1949   4019    2963    2505
1950   3735    2915    2422
1951   3432    2883    2264
1952   3228    2741    2261
1953   3189    2539    2204
1954   2926    2457    2224
1955   2820    2301    2323
1956   2803    2163    2487
1957   2684    2189    2578
1958   2496    2153    2662
1959   2377    2128    2885
1960   2266    2282    3411
1961   2145    2468    3687
1962   2155    2541    3961
1963   2112    2619    4507
1964   2109    2865    4822
1965   2255    3384    4816
1966   2440    3660    4993
1967   2539    3960    5474
1968   2468    4361    5438
1969   2865    4822    5445
1970   3408    4838    5326
1971   3686    5017    5094
1972   3849    5373    4324
1973   4327    5439    3906
1974   4867    5492    3674
1975   4899    5392    3307
1976   5058    5140    3065
1977   5532    4464    2909
1978   5610    4079    2728
1979   5550    3750    2559
1980   5423    3348    2480``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3072    4217    4435
1922   3625    4141    4409
1923   3841    4099    4207
1924   4105    4178    4086
1925   4311    4257    3775
1926   4195    4409    3439
1927   4073    4330    3243
1928   4004    4092    3131
1929   4025    3893    2772
1930   4113    3583    2688
1931   4323    3314    2715
1932   4310    3214    2721
1933   4182    3266    2642
1934   3985    2910    2436
1935   3713    2882    2380
1936   3365    2789    2144
1937   3130    2608    2093
1938   3149    2485    2138
1939   2864    2376    2126
1940   2803    2279    2297
1941   2879    2260    2594
1942   2813    2351    2752
1943   2595    2273    2788
1944   2483    2256    3015
1945   2358    2390    3516
1946   2250    2584    3799
1947   2330    2728    4139
1948   2279    2795    4667
1949   2282    3041    4980
1950   2464    3589    5006
1951   2599    3814    5140
1952   2655    4070    5580
1953   2716    4595    5625
1954   2982    4927    5556
1955   3451    4878    5369
1956   3705    5036    5116
1957   3996    5509    4436
1958   4545    5575    4032
1959   4840    5464    3636
1960   4841    5329    3221
1961   5018    5095    3004
1962   5476    4395    2819
1963   5536    3981    2604
1964   5445    3611    2382
1965   5301    3184    2274
1966   5066    2965    2030
1967   4393    2816    1900
1968   3905    2539    1674
1969   3611    2382    1484
1970   3216    2315    1259
1971   3002    2077    1131
1972   2764    1858    1028
1973   2540    1676     726
1974   2462    1595     648
1975   2428    1426     496
1976   2156    1251     150
1977   2019    1253    (186)
1978   1900    1035    (147)
1979   1729     816    (146)
1980   1503     577    (159)``````
Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 0% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.25) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.3%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.3%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.4%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   4841    3278    4121
1922   4445    3464    3846
1923   4097    3752    3638
1924   3683    3943    3587
1925   3401    4131    3450
1926   3246    4089    3481
1927   3405    3784    3728
1928   3679    3557    3803
1929   3839    3461    3890
1930   4040    3332    3996
1931   4038    3413    3968
1932   3776    3718    3961
1933   3619    3870    3994
1934   3521    3952    3978
1935   3413    4076    4043
1936   3442    3996    4093
1937   3674    3914    4029
1938   3816    3932    3974
1939   3934    3958    3896
1940   4046    4009    3757
1941   4038    4142    3674
1942   4002    4131    3625
1943   3978    4029    3594
1944   4000    3950    3446
1945   4038    3795    3404
1946   4136    3666    3414
1947   4121    3610    3399
1948   4030    3596    3303
1949   3959    3460    3252
1950   3827    3451    3224
1951   3670    3420    3127
1952   3567    3340    3112
1953   3548    3239    3081
1954   3423    3202    3094
1955   3357    3104    3115
1956   3343    3028    3184
1957   3287    3045    3230
1958   3202    3035    3278
1959   3129    3006    3368
1960   3076    3082    3628
1961   3017    3171    3762
1962   3018    3201    3891
1963   3002    3244    4164
1964   2995    3357    4312
1965   3063    3610    4304
1966   3152    3744    4390
1967   3207    3897    4635
1968   3104    4031    4571
1969   3365    4319    4617
1970   3640    4333    4565
1971   3775    4421    4449
1972   3793    4535    4010
1973   3997    4572    3805
1974   4368    4668    3763
1975   4395    4633    3601
1976   4462    4496    3465
1977   4697    4162    3391
1978   4746    3988    3322
1979   4721    3833    3248
1980   4659    3636    3211``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3524    4077    4187
1922   3803    4051    4188
1923   3892    4018    4077
1924   4020    4057    4022
1925   4112    4086    3860
1926   4035    4138    3669
1927   3971    4095    3572
1928   3917    3956    3484
1929   3906    3831    3267
1930   3949    3677    3226
1931   4061    3557    3258
1932   4083    3553    3322
1933   4048    3623    3339
1934   3922    3405    3180
1935   3803    3415    3178
1936   3604    3325    3006
1937   3471    3211    2949
1938   3511    3190    3020
1939   3366    3128    3004
1940   3346    3091    3099
1941   3425    3134    3300
1942   3420    3212    3409
1943   3300    3156    3406
1944   3233    3131    3496
1945   3164    3185    3729
1946   3119    3284    3871
1947   3187    3382    4063
1948   3160    3410    4316
1949   3154    3519    4457
1950   3255    3797    4478
1951   3292    3879    4520
1952   3302    3987    4722
1953   3327    4240    4738
1954   3458    4403    4705
1955   3661    4352    4585
1956   3774    4419    4447
1957   3919    4656    4111
1958   4196    4693    3919
1959   4322    4620    3698
1960   4321    4552    3491
1961   4408    4434    3382
1962   4629    4078    3281
1963   4662    3878    3181
1964   4609    3684    3058
1965   4533    3466    2998
1966   4414    3355    2875
1967   4085    3290    2822
1968   3804    3120    2687
1969   3695    3072    2613
1970   3508    3051    2522
1971   3402    2933    2462
1972   3231    2778    2363
1973   3122    2690    2213
1974   3159    2734    2266
1975   3168    2694    2221
1976   3013    2583    2005
1977   2951    2594    1831
1978   2922    2522    1865
1979   2857    2419    1863
1980   2758    2288    1845``````
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   153534    149155    153183
1922   121886    132031    166833
1923   107164    118735    149533
1924   134965    131680    154668
1925   113644    124162    163357
1926   125572    121871    144835
1927   135662     98167    135570
1928    92482     67318     80400
1929    73167     39991     34811
1930    76726     42580     35212
1931    81310     57826     59711
1932    97846    104711    153428
1933   108167    131430    195689
1934    88504     89195    134062
1935   103718    126277    175104
1936    89381     92065    105251
1937    62059     65052     59752
1938    76026     97351    121890
1939    69991    101225    107914
1940    75000    107718    106397
1941    95272    141698    150200
1942   117649    186889    196411
1943   117997    171824    193535
1944   106672    167754    149945
1945   120159    165004    114354
1946   118396    151676    113892
1947   145304    180432    150103
1948   145751    201174    144687
1949   167285    200425    139942
1950   163201    178913    135571
1951   147994    156244    116387
1952   149385    148915     91500
1953   138796    149559     92072
1954   153571    133928     98892
1955   130006     83916     61011
1956   117969     78271     47366
1957   111968     79090     54684
1958   127166     79068     63181
1959   106789     57995     34307
1960    96654     54218     34905
1961    94942     53065     30885
1962    89494     38613     21526
1963    98755     44612     30023
1964    77295     35425     14838
1965    58663     27779      5694
1966    61617     25981      3318
1967    67038     37313     19507
1968    57147     32839     20468
1969    53752     30421     18888
1970    58751     44313     46921
1971    59239     41560     45564
1972    50089     45154     42597
1973    50712     44794     40283
1974    66313     70054     66018
1975    85775    100632     94117
1976    76745     89368     62046
1977    86634    101746     57478
1978    98726    147066     69217
1979   105796    176582     65448
1980   115940    193705     59992``````
This completes the data at a 0% interest rate.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 1% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.50) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 1.0%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 1.0%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 1.1%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5923    2835    4542
1922   5115    3180    3976
1923   4415    3738    3551
1924   3588    4125    3456
1925   3017    4491    3168
1926   2715    4421    3235
1927   3026    3811    3723
1928   3582    3363    3879
1929   3918    3179    4067
1930   4330    2927    4288
1931   4325    3088    4233
1932   3791    3697    4221
1933   3450    3977    4263
1934   3262    4152    4235
1935   3041    4399    4364
1936   3109    4255    4474
1937   3590    4101    4354
1938   3870    4131    4241
1939   4111    4183    4084
1940   4333    4279    3798
1941   4294    4523    3615
1942   4220    4502    3543
1943   4180    4306    3490
1944   4228    4149    3191
1945   4306    3841    3102
1946   4489    3554    3080
1947   4458    3458    3098
1948   4286    3451    2941
1949   4148    3188    2847
1950   3865    3147    2768
1951   3559    3089    2571
1952   3357    2936    2543
1953   3318    2731    2476
1954   3066    2662    2509
1955   2940    2465    2533
1956   2912    2310    2660
1957   2797    2341    2749
1958   2624    2325    2852
1959   2488    2271    3033
1960   2379    2422    3550
1961   2262    2603    3819
1962   2265    2664    4078
1963   2230    2747    4622
1964   2220    2980    4924
1965   2359    3488    4912
1966   2539    3758    5085
1967   2644    4060    5570
1968   2569    4459    5538
1969   2962    4909    5534
1970   3511    4931    5423
1971   3786    5110    5191
1972   3952    5474    4423
1973   4427    5539    4007
1974   4959    5589    3790
1975   5012    5517    3480
1976   5158    5250    3208
1977   5629    4576    3054
1978   5717    4217    2917
1979   5656    3896    2762
1980   5532    3504    2694``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3419    4566    4863
1922   3939    4494    4845
1923   4089    4401    4601
1924   4353    4490    4526
1925   4524    4526    4187
1926   4381    4632    3810
1927   4251    4541    3618
1928   4142    4256    3395
1929   4126    4002    2911
1930   4220    3706    2850
1931   4448    3480    2953
1932   4504    3547    3242
1933   4417    3700    3334
1934   4159    3209    2879
1935   3933    3275    2955
1936   3527    3034    2489
1937   3259    2777    2313
1938   3367    2809    2584
1939   3067    2663    2511
1940   3023    2587    2692
1941   3186    2713    3139
1942   3236    2977    3467
1943   3003    2856    3436
1944   2852    2770    3552
1945   2703    2842    3962
1946   2557    2954    4155
1947   2778    3243    4619
1948   2770    3341    5137
1949   2763    3544    5396
1950   2927    4045    5401
1951   2970    4171    5467
1952   2977    4371    5862
1953   3017    4857    5886
1954   3281    5176    5829
1955   3659    5062    5575
1956   3874    5192    5292
1957   4158    5662    4623
1958   4713    5742    4256
1959   4969    5599    3807
1960   4966    5463    3392
1961   5141    5230    3176
1962   5587    4518    2966
1963   5651    4117    2768
1964   5550    3730    2517
1965   5399    3290    2387
1966   5160    3063    2131
1967   4495    2930    2028
1968   4006    2640    1776
1969   3704    2479    1586
1970   3327    2440    1426
1971   3114    2204    1307
1972   2863    1956    1125
1973   2641    1778     826
1974   2606    1799     917
1975   2659    1833     930
1976   2339    1571     414
1977   2212    1592      37
1978   2180    1512     101
1979   2060    1286      66
1980   1898    1000      20
``````
Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 1% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.25) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.4%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.4%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.5%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   4971    3525    4364
1922   4576    3703    4095
1923   4222    3948    3867
1924   3827    4131    3829
1925   3546    4285    3667
1926   3384    4222    3666
1927   3537    3917    3890
1928   3786    3673    3926
1929   3926    3554    3984
1930   4128    3433    4095
1931   4131    3528    4082
1932   3902    3870    4127
1933   3762    4025    4178
1934   3636    4069    4115
1935   3543    4203    4197
1936   3545    4099    4208
1937   3763    4007    4127
1938   3921    4050    4112
1939   4031    4067    4028
1940   4142    4117    3897
1941   4143    4262    3863
1942   4127    4278    3889
1943   4099    4177    3855
1944   4111    4091    3692
1945   4142    3935    3642
1946   4226    3797    3624
1947   4232    3801    3704
1948   4155    3814    3646
1949   4088    3686    3594
1950   3957    3682    3568
1951   3798    3626    3431
1952   3695    3535    3392
1953   3678    3431    3350
1954   3563    3407    3376
1955   3476    3267    3323
1956   3452    3175    3355
1957   3400    3196    3399
1958   3329    3206    3466
1959   3240    3147    3515
1960   3188    3221    3766
1961   3134    3306    3894
1962   3128    3322    4008
1963   3120    3372    4281
1964   3105    3472    4415
1965   3167    3714    4400
1966   3251    3841    4483
1967   3312    3998    4731
1968   3205    4129    4671
1969   3462    4407    4706
1970   3743    4426    4662
1971   3875    4514    4547
1972   3895    4636    4108
1973   4097    4672    3906
1974   4460    4765    3883
1975   4508    4759    3778
1976   4561    4606    3613
1977   4794    4276    3542
1978   4852    4129    3516
1979   4827    3981    3455
1980   4769    3794    3429``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3882    4438    4631
1922   4123    4411    4633
1923   4143    4323    4476
1924   4269    4370    4463
1925   4324    4355    4270
1926   4220    4359    4036
1927   4150    4306    3943
1928   4056    4120    3746
1929   4007    3941    3408
1930   4057    3802    3393
1931   4186    3726    3503
1932   4278    3889    3846
1933   4283    4055    4027
1934   4096    3702    3618
1935   4022    3805    3747
1936   3766    3570    3349
1937   3600    3381    3170
1938   3731    3516    3468
1939   3572    3420    3394
1940   3571    3405    3502
1941   3737    3595    3855
1942   3846    3843    4130
1943   3711    3742    4055
1944   3604    3645    4034
1945   3510    3638    4175
1946   3429    3657    4230
1947   3637    3898    4544
1948   3650    3955    4787
1949   3632    4019    4873
1950   3714    4250    4871
1951   3659    4232    4844
1952   3620    4286    5002
1953   3624    4500    4997
1954   3753    4650    4975
1955   3866    4534    4789
1956   3940    4574    4622
1957   4080    4808    4295
1958   4363    4860    4140
1959   4451    4755    3867
1960   4446    4686    3661
1961   4531    4568    3553
1962   4740    4202    3427
1963   4777    4014    3345
1964   4714    3804    3194
1965   4632    3574    3114
1966   4509    3456    2979
1967   4189    3408    2956
1968   3905    3221    2790
1969   3790    3174    2727
1970   3623    3184    2705
1971   3519    3069    2658
1972   3329    2875    2460
1973   3223    2794    2313
1974   3311    2956    2562
1975   3406    3119    2676
1976   3204    2924    2287
1977   3154    2954    2069
1978   3212    3017    2125
1979   3198    2904    2084
1980   3161    2721    2033``````
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   252073    300682    449083
1922   165533    229621    448000
1923   135181    195287    382529
1924   190088    228047    397134
1925   144218    207608    429677
1926   168203    210329    398889
1927   187270    148278    358071
1928   102321     87576    188332
1929    71059     39953     67750
1930    78739     49364     87591
1931    88079     83751    169890
1932   119351    195868    496848
1933   134419    243754    564498
1934   100966    144533    363458
1935   129559    239622    510713
1936   104364    157693    276630
1937    58675     94377    133149
1938    84489    179184    346851
1939    74663    189416    292512
1940    82836    200936    266461
1941   117337    276942    374442
1942   164098    416244    541525
1943   165883    368763    543448
1944   142187    356431    370360
1945   168739    345602    245078
1946   158894    285555    227182
1947   223527    375915    346462
1948   226043    449610    336201
1949   277582    446777    329111
1950   260021    356703    296713
1951   224631    296111    255356
1952   228347    280192    191485
1953   202018    280862    199423
1954   234743    232958    224666
1955   184225    118620    133790
1956   158320    109348    104158
1957   144732    111352    126458
1958   176231    111603    148181
1959   136186     74880     83291
1960   115898     68992     86001
1961   113092     69071     75411
1962   103603     44361     55935
1963   120788     56240     75342
1964    82330     41615     39782
1965    53244     28604     15438
1966    57373     24605      6674
1967    66269     45200     46725
1968    51029    34102     39300
1969    46921     29907     32937
1970    55456     57856    116495
1971    56991     53146    109462
1972    43315     55963     84148
1973    42702     48921     59540
1974    68923    106076    124154
1975   107065    185731    196785
1976    91151    160271    110099
1977   108227    187926     90844
1978   130619    309758    106406
1979   141991    387378     89640
1980   162187    436797     75602``````
Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 1% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.50) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 1.2%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 1.2%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 1.3%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   6096    2897    4612
1922   5286    3249    4040
1923   4592    3848    3633
1924   3745    4243    3524
1925   3173    4642    3261
1926   2878    4593    3358
1927   3196    3982    3868
1928   3776    3550    4061
1929   4133    3387    4275
1930   4542    3128    4491
1931   4533    3276    4423
1932   3966    3848    4361
1933   3609    4127    4386
1934   3448    4339    4403
1935   3212    4576    4517
1936   3307    4454    4662
1937   3802    4310    4557
1938   4066    4316    4407
1939   4315    4375    4256
1940   4539    4472    3963
1941   4491    4706    3736
1942   4396    4659    3590
1943   4360    4462    3539
1944   4418    4311    3254
1945   4502    4004    3172
1946   4700    3727    3180
1947   4648    3573    3106
1948   4462    3539    2910
1949   4320    3267    2815
1950   4036    3221    2735
1951   3733    3188    2576
1952   3530    3046    2571
1953   3490    2843    2515
1954   3227    2762    2535
1955   3121    2605    2631
1956   3104    2466    2794
1957   2985    2492    2885
1958   2798    2457    2970
1959   2678    2432    3191
1960   2567    2586    3717
1961   2446    2771    3992
1962   2456    2844    4266
1963   2413    2922    4811
1964   2410    3168    5126
1965   2556    3687    5119
1966   2741    3962    5295
1967   2840    4262    5777
1968   2769    4661    5738
1969   3166    5124    5747
1970   3709    5140    5628
1971   3987    5319    5396
1972   4149    5673    4624
1973   4627    5739    4206
1974   5167    5794    3977
1975   5200    5695    3612
1976   5359    5442    3368
1977   5833    4765    3212
1978   5911    4381    3034
1979   5851    4054    2866
1980   5724    3652    2787``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3384    4533    4756
1922   3940    4461    4737
1923   4154    4418    4534
1924   4419    4499    4416
1925   4625    4576    4104
1926   4506    4724    3762
1927   4383    4643    3566
1928   4310    4401    3445
1929   4327    4194    3073
1930   4414    3883    2987
1931   4625    3616    3018
1932   4618    3526    3041
1933   4495    3589    2979
1934   4293    3225    2758
1935   4023    3201    2709
1936   3671    3098    2458
1937   3432    2911    2397
1938   3455    2795    2454
1939   3169    2684    2438
1940   3108    2589    2612
1941   3192    2580    2923
1942   3130    2680    3090
1943   2910    2599    3122
1944   2797    2579    3344
1945   2671    2710    3841
1946   2565    2905    4125
1947   2649    3056    4472
1948   2599    3122    4998
1949   2602    3367    5309
1950   2786    3917    5338
1951   2917    4137    5466
1952   2971    4389    5903
1953   3032    4913    5946
1954   3298    5245    5879
1955   3762    5191    5685
1956   4015    5346    5428
1957   4305    5820    4749
1958   4855    5887    4348
1959   5146    5771    3945
1960   5148    5636    3530
1961   5325    5402    3312
1962   5781    4700    3124
1963   5841    4287    2910
1964   5749    3915    2684
1965   5604    3485    2574
1966   5368    3265    2328
1967   4695    3117    2200
1968   4205    2839    1974
1969   3912    2681    1781
1970   3518    2616    1560
1971   3303    2378    1430
1972   3064    2158    1328
1973   2840    1976    1026
1974   2765    1900     956
1975   2736    1740     814
1976   2460    1559     459
1977   2324    1563     123
1978   2210    1353     168
1979   2042    1137     171
1980   1818     898     157``````
Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 1% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.25) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.6%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.6%.
There were two failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.7%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5142    3582    4428
1922   4746    3769    4155
1923   4399    4056    3947
1924   3984    4248    3897
1925   3702    4435    3760
1926   3548    4392    3788
1927   3706    4088    4035
1928   3980    3860    4107
1929   4140    3762    4192
1930   4340    3634    4297
1931   4338    3715    4270
1932   4077    4021    4266
1933   3920    4175    4302
1934   3822    4255    4283
1935   3715    4379    4349
1936   3743    4299    4397
1937   3975    4216    4330
1938   4117    4235    4277
1939   4235    4260    4199
1940   4347    4310    4060
1941   4339    4445    3981
1942   4303    4434    3934
1943   4279    4332    3902
1944   4301    4253    3754
1945   4339    4098    3711
1946   4437    3970    3722
1947   4422    3915    3710
1948   4331    3901    3614
1949   4260    3765    3562
1950   4128    3756    3536
1951   3972    3725    3438
1952   3868    3645    3422
1953   3850    3544    3391
1954   3724    3507    3405
1955   3658    3408    3423
1956   3644    3332    3490
1957   3588    3349    3536
1958   3503    3339    3586
1959   3430    3309    3674
1960   3377    3385    3933
1961   3318    3475    4067
1962   3319    3504    4195
1963   3303    3547    4469
1964   3296    3660    4615
1965   3364    3912    4607
1966   3453    4046    4692
1967   3508    4199    4937
1968   3404    4331    4871
1969   3666    4621    4918
1970   3941    4635    4867
1971   4076    4722    4751
1972   4093    4835    4310
1973   4297    4872    4105
1974   4669    4970    4066
1975   4696    4936    3907
1976   4762    4798    3769
1977   4998    4464    3694
1978   5047    4291    3628
1979   5022    4137    3556
1980   4960    3940    3519
``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3837    4394    4510
1922   4118    4372    4517
1923   4205    4337    4404
1924   4334    4377    4351
1925   4425    4404    4188
1926   4345    4451    3990
1927   4281    4408    3893
1928   4224    4264    3797
1929   4208    4133    3568
1930   4250    3978    3526
1931   4363    3859    3562
1932   4391    3866    3643
1933   4361    3945    3676
1934   4230    3719    3500
1935   4113    3733    3506
1936   3909    3634    3319
1937   3773    3513    3252
1938   3818    3500    3336
1939   3671    3437    3317
1940   3652    3401    3414
1941   3738    3455    3629
1942   3737    3541    3747
1943   3616    3482    3739
1944   3547    3454    3824
1945   3477    3505    4053
1946   3434    3605    4196
1947   3506    3709    4395
1948   3479    3736    4646
1949   3473    3844    4784
1950   3576    4124    4809
1951   3610    4201    4844
1952   3617    4305    5042
1953   3642    4557    5057
1954   3773    4719    5025
1955   3971    4663    4898
1956   4082    4728    4757
1957   4227    4964    4422
1958   4505    5004    4233
1959   4628    4926    4005
1960   4627    4858    3798
1961   4713    4740    3689
1962   4933    4382    3584
1963   4966    4183    3486
1964   4912    3987    3360
1965   4835    3767    3297
1966   4716    3655    3172
1967   4388    3592    3122
1968   4104    3420    2987
1969   3996    3371    2911
1970   3811    3353    2824
1971   3704    3235    2763
1972   3531    3078    2663
1973   3422    2990    2513
1974   3464    3041    2577
1975   3476    3010    2541
1976   3318    2893    2316
1977   3257    2905    2142
1978   3233    2842    2182
1979   3171    2742    2180
1980   3074    2610    2161``````
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   157061    158443    171372
1922   125236    141123    187809
1923   110133    126845    168202
1924   138700    140863    174309
1925   116865    132771    183882
1926   128729    129559    161842
1927   139036    104430    151343
1928    94539     70888     88233
1929    74199     40873     34854
1930    77643     43136     34328
1931    82492     59299     61847
1932   100114    110479    168804
1933   111242    140318    218812
1934    90621     94223    147627
1935   106397    133999    194212
1936    91099     95980    113712
1937    62853     66166     61516
1938    77496    101670    132165
1939    71149    105017    115945
1940    76246    112104    115016
1941    97446    149883    166228
1942   120625    198768    218970
1943   120825    182412    215182
1944   109094    177600    166383
1945   122666    174354    126883
1946   121002    160675    126826
1947   148910    192213    168308
1948   149448    214331    162531
1949   171442    213518    157383
1950   167695    191450    153350
1951   151897    166780    131491
1952   153160    158632    103486
1953   142416    159364    104376
1954   157710    143087    112444
1955   133134     89228     69138
1956   120651     82894     53503
1957   114668     83916     61820
1958   130449     84296     71700
1959   109213     61287     38392
1960    98931     57327     38937
1961    97186     56064     34290
1962    91462     40569     23190
1963   101056     47067     32790
1964    78976     36879     15006
1965    59876     28496      4296
1966    62753     26310       943
1967    68387     38331     18889
1968    58211     33377     18931
1969    54657     30573     16305
1970    59860     45422     47643
1971    60227     42344     45812
1972    50805     45598     42326
1973    51341     45228     40385
1974    67548     72823     70737
1975    87762    106128    103282
1976    78094     93018     66775
1977    88127    106042     62034
1978   100934    155097     76124
1979   108351    186917     72385
1980   118769    205272     66420``````
This completes the 1% interest rate data.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 2% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.50) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 1.1%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 1.1%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 1.2%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   6024    2938    4648
1922   5215    3284    4083
1923   4516    3841    3658
1924   3688    4229    3563
1925   3118    4594    3274
1926   2816    4524    3340
1927   3127    3914    3828
1928   3682    3464    3982
1929   4019    3280    4168
1930   4430    3028    4389
1931   4426    3189    4335
1932   3892    3799    4325
1933   3551    4079    4368
1934   3362    4254    4338
1935   3141    4501    4469
1936   3210    4356    4576
1937   3690    4202    4455
1938   3970    4233    4344
1939   4212    4284    4186
1940   4434    4380    3901
1941   4394    4625    3720
1942   4320    4604    3650
1943   4281    4409    3597
1944   4329    4252    3297
1945   4406    3943    3208
1946   4589    3656    3186
1947   4558    3561    3207
1948   4386    3555    3051
1949   4248    3291    2956
1950   3965    3251    2878
1951   3660    3193    2680
1952   3458    3039    2651
1953   3419    2835    2583
1954   3167    2766    2618
1955   3040    2567    2639
1956   3013    2412    2765
1957   2897    2444    2854
1958   2725    2428    2958
1959   2589    2373    3137
1960   2480    2524    3654
1961   2363    2705    3922
1962   2366    2765    4181
1963   2331    2849    4725
1964   2320    3082    5026
1965   2460    3590    5013
1966   2640    3859    5186
1967   2745    4162    5672
1968   2669    4559    5638
1969   3063    5010    5635
1970   3611    5032    5524
1971   3886    5211    5293
1972   4052    5574    4523
1973   4527    5639    4107
1974   5059    5690    3892
1975   5113    5619    3584
1976   5258    5351    3311
1977   5729    4677    3157
1978   5817    4319    3022
1979   5756    3998    2867
1980   5633    3607    2799``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3532    4683    4988
1922   4052    4613    4974
1923   4200    4517    4728
1924   4464    4608    4657
1925   4633    4642    4316
1926   4488    4743    3935
1927   4358    4652    3743
1928   4247    4363    3510
1929   4227    4104    3014
1930   4321    3808    2954
1931   4550    3585    3062
1932   4610    3662    3371
1933   4527    3823    3479
1934   4265    3323    3005
1935   4042    3395    3091
1936   3632    3144    2607
1937   3361    2881    2420
1938   3474    2922    2707
1939   3172    2774    2629
1940   3129    2698    2811
1941   3297    2835    3272
1942   3352    3108    3612
1943   3118    2984    3575
1944   2965    2894    3684
1945   2815    2964    4089
1946   2669    3073    4278
1947   2896    3370    4750
1948   2889    3469    5268
1949   2881    3671    5524
1950   3047    4171    5529
1951   3086    4290    5589
1952   3091    4487    5981
1953   3130    4971    6003
1954   3394    5290    5948
1955   3767    5171    5688
1956   3980    5299    5402
1957   4264    5769    4734
1958   4820    5850    4370
1959   5073    5705    3916
1960   5070    5568    3501
1961   5245    5335    3285
1962   5690    4623    3072
1963   5754    4222    2876
1964   5652    3833    2621
1965   5501    3392    2489
1966   5261    3164    2232
1967   4597    3032    2131
1968   4106    2740    1876
1969   3805    2579    1686
1970   3429    2543    1531
1971   3216    2306    1411
1972   2963    2056    1225
1973   2741    1878     926
1974   2709    1905    1028
1975   2766    1950    1053
1976   2443    1683     525
1977   2317    1705     147
1978   2289    1633     215
1979   2172    1408     179
1980   2012    1121     132``````
Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 2% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.25) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.5%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.5.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.6%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5071    3628    4470
1922   4676    3806    4202
1923   4323    4051    3974
1924   3928    4235    3937
1925   3647    4388    3774
1926   3485    4324    3771
1927   3637    4020    3995
1928   3887    3774    4028
1929   4026    3655    4085
1930   4228    3534    4196
1931   4232    3629    4183
1932   4003    3972    4231
1933   3862    4127    4283
1934   3737    4171    4218
1935   3644    4305    4301
1936   3646    4201    4310
1937   3864    4107    4228
1938   4021    4152    4214
1939   4132    4168    4130
1940   4242    4218    3999
1941   4243    4364    3967
1942   4228    4380    3996
1943   4200    4279    3962
1944   4212    4193    3798
1945   4242    4037    3748
1946   4326    3899    3730
1947   4332    3904    3812
1948   4256    3917    3755
1949   4188    3789    3703
1950   4057    3786    3679
1951   3898    3729    3539
1952   3796    3638    3500
1953   3778    3535    3457
1954   3663    3510    3484
1955   3577    3369    3428
1956   3552    3277    3459
1957   3500    3299    3504
1958   3430    3309    3572
1959   3341    3249    3619
1960   3289    3323    3869
1961   3234    3408    3997
1962   3229    3424    4110
1963   3221    3474    4383
1964   3206    3573    4516
1965   3268    3815    4501
1966   3352    3942    4584
1967   3413    4099    4833
1968   3305    4229    4771
1969   3563    4508    4807
1970   3844    4527    4764
1971   3976    4615    4649
1972   3995    4736    4208
1973   4197    4772    4006
1974   4561    4866    3985
1975   4609    4860    3882
1976   4662    4707    3716
1977   4894    4377    3644
1978   4953    4231    3621
1979   4928    4083    3561
1980   4869    3896    3535
``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3996    4556    4759
1922   4236    4531    4763
1923   4254    4440    4603
1924   4380    4487    4593
1925   4433    4470    4398
1926   4327    4470    4160
1927   4257    4417    4067
1928   4160    4226    3861
1929   4108    4043    3511
1930   4158    3904    3497
1931   4289    3831    3612
1932   4384    4004    3976
1933   4392    4178    4171
1934   4202    3816    3744
1935   4130    3924    3882
1936   3870    3680    3466
1937   3702    3485    3277
1938   3838    3629    3591
1939   3677    3531    3513
1940   3677    3517    3621
1941   3849    3717    3988
1942   3963    3975    4275
1943   3827    3870    4195
1944   3717    3770    4166
1945   3622    3759    4302
1946   3540    3776    4352
1947   3755    4024    4676
1948   3769    4083    4917
1949   3750    4145    5000
1950   3833    4375    4999
1951   3774    4351    4966
1952   3733    4401    5119
1953   3736    4613    5113
1954   3865    4763    5092
1955   3974    4643    4900
1956   4046    4681    4730
1957   4185    4914    4405
1958   4469    4967    4253
1959   4555    4859    3975
1960   4550    4790    3768
1961   4634    4673    3660
1962   4843    4305    3533
1963   4880    4118    3452
1964   4816    3907    3298
1965   4733    3675    3216
1966   4610    3557    3080
1967   4291    3510    3059
1968   4005    3321    2890
1969   3891    3275    2827
1970   3725    3287    2811
1971   3621    3172    2764
1972   3429    2975    2559
1973   3323    2894    2413
1974   3415    3064    2676
1975   3515    3238    2801
1976   3310    3037    2400
1977   3260    3069    2181
1978   3322    3140    2240
1979   3311    3027    2198
1980   3276    2842    2144``````
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   255120    310054    473072
1922   167799    237116    472322
1923   137040    201639    403329
1924   192681    235562    418954
1925   146234    214428    453200
1926   170370    216961    420412
1927   189635    153044    377387
1928   103541     90179    198140
1929    71620     40703     70130
1930    79325     50240     90509
1931    88874     85660    177019
1932   120869    201794    521745
1933   136318    251642    594018
1934   102230    148853    381457
1935   131269    247001    536571
1936   105463    161744    289164
1937    59131     95951    137626
1938    85432    183911    362715
1939    75406    193932    305157
1940    83643    205794    278186
1941   118709    284764    392634
1942   166176    428667    568806
1943   167923    379678    570562
1944   143879    366667    388819
1945   170597    355274    257402
1946   160580    293455    238558
1947   226199    387172    364518
1948   228864    463211    354057
1949   280990    460365    346782
1950   263394    367974    313030
1951   227490    305346    269472
1952   231183    288832    202294
1953   204601    289548    210852
1954   237816    240450    237728
1955   186460    122376    141792
1956   160148    112686    110550
1957   146489    114824    134209
1958   178486    115284    157223
1959   137785     77231     88636
1960   117311     71201     91515
1961   114484     71304     80264
1962   104810     45790     59653
1963   122253     58120     80080
1964    83303     42917     42356
1965    53866     29407     16448
1966    57977     25178      6974
1967    67018     46398     49019
1968    51572     34836     40677
1969    47377     30383     33437
1970    56057     59192    121100
1971    57560     54265    113413
1972    43698     56851     86563
1973    43001     49481     60844
1974    69628    108634    129492
1975   108388    191111    206471
1976    92082    164283    115077
1977   109284    192577     94977
1978   132145    318358    111718
1979   143706    398324     94230
1980   164154    449240     79525``````
Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 2% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.50) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 1.5%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 1.5%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 1.6%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   6396    3201    4919
1922   5587    3554    4350
1923   4893    4152    3943
1924   4046    4547    3835
1925   3475    4947    3571
1926   3180    4897    3666
1927   3497    4286    4176
1928   4077    3853    4366
1929   4433    3689    4577
1930   4843    3429    4793
1931   4833    3578    4725
1932   4267    4151    4666
1933   3910    4431    4695
1934   3749    4642    4709
1935   3513    4879    4823
1936   3608    4756    4966
1937   4102    4612    4859
1938   4367    4618    4711
1939   4616    4677    4559
1940   4840    4774    4266
1941   4792    5009    4042
1942   4697    4963    3900
1943   4661    4766    3848
1944   4719    4615    3562
1945   4803    4307    3479
1946   5001    4031    3488
1947   4949    3878    3417
1948   4763    3844    3222
1949   4621    3572    3126
1950   4337    3526    3048
1951   4034    3493    2887
1952   3831    3351    2882
1953   3791    3148    2825
1954   3528    3067    2847
1955   3422    2909    2939
1956   3405    2770    3101
1957   3286    2796    3192
1958   3099    2762    3278
1959   2979    2735    3497
1960   2869    2889    4022
1961   2747    3075    4298
1962   2757    3148    4571
1963   2714    3226    5116
1964   2711    3471    5429
1965   2857    3989    5422
1966   3042    4265    5598
1967   3142    4564    6080
1968   3069    4961    6038
1969   3467    5426    6049
1970   4010    5442    5930
1971   4287    5621    5697
1972   4449    5973    4924
1973   4927    6039    4506
1974   5468    6096    4279
1975   5501    5998    3917
1976   5659    5744    3671
1977   6134    5067    3515
1978   6212    4684    3339
1979   6152    4357    3173
1980   6025    3956    3095``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   3697    4850    5079
1922   4256    4784    5068
1923   4468    4739    4865
1924   4734    4821    4750
1925   4939    4897    4438
1926   4817    5039    4089
1927   4694    4959    3893
1928   4617    4710    3760
1929   4630    4496    3375
1930   4716    4184    3287
1931   4928    3919    3322
1932   4926    3840    3364
1933   4809    3915    3322
1934   4601    3540    3083
1935   4335    3523    3043
1936   3977    3408    2774
1937   3734    3214    2701
1938   3762    3107    2772
1939   3474    2993    2752
1940   3415    2900    2927
1941   3505    2903    3255
1942   3449    3011    3433
1943   3227    2927    3461
1944   3112    2904    3676
1945   2985    3033    4170
1946   2880    3229    4454
1947   2969    3386    4809
1948   2920    3453    5334
1949   2922    3696    5641
1950   3110    4249    5675
1951   3237    4462    5797
1952   3288    4711    6228
1953   3348    5234    6271
1954   3615    5565    6204
1955   4074    5505    6002
1956   4324    5658    5742
1957   4615    6131    5064
1958   5166    6200    4667
1959   5454    6080    4257
1960   5455    5944    3841
1961   5631    5710    3623
1962   6086    5006    3431
1963   6147    4594    3219
1964   6053    4219    2988
1965   5907    3787    2874
1966   5670    3566    2627
1967   4998    3419    2501
1968   4505    3139    2274
1969   4213    2981    2077
1970   3820    2918    1861
1971   3605    2678    1730
1972   3364    2458    1628
1973   3140    2276    1326
1974   3069    2206    1265
1975   3044    2056    1135
1976   2765    1868     769
1977   2629    1873     433
1978   2520    1673     486
1979   2356    1461     490
1980   2135    1222     475``````
Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
TIPS at 2% Interest

Conditions
1921-1980
\$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 2 is set for Yes (cell F23 equals 1)
Gummy Inflation Term G2 is set for CPI (cell I24 equals 2)
Gummy's Multiplier G3 = (0.25) in cell F25
Gummy's Offset G4 is 2.50 in cell I25

Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.8%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.8%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.9%.
Expenses = 0.20%
With Rebalancing

Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15

Code: Select all

``````1921   5344    3788    4639
1922   4948    3976    4369
1923   4600    4263    4160
1924   4186    4454    4110
1925   3904    4641    3973
1926   3749    4598    3999
1927   3908    4293    4245
1928   4182    4064    4315
1929   4341    3965    4397
1930   4541    3837    4502
1931   4540    3918    4475
1932   4278    4226    4474
1933   4122    4381    4513
1934   4024    4460    4492
1935   3916    4584    4558
1936   3944    4502    4603
1937   4176    4418    4535
1938   4318    4438    4484
1939   4436    4463    4405
1940   4548    4514    4267
1941   4541    4649    4191
1942   4505    4640    4147
1943   4481    4538    4115
1944   4502    4458    3966
1945   4540    4303    3922
1946   4639    4175    3934
1947   4624    4121    3925
1948   4533    4107    3829
1949   4462    3972    3777
1950   4330    3964    3753
1951   4173    3932    3653
1952   4069    3851    3636
1953   4051    3751    3605
1954   3926    3714    3619
1955   3859    3614    3633
1956   3845    3537    3699
1957   3789    3554    3746
1958   3704    3545    3796
1959   3632    3514    3882
1960   3578    3590    4141
1961   3520    3679    4274
1962   3520    3708    4401
1963   3505    3752    4675
1964   3497    3864    4821
1965   3565    4115    4811
1966   3655    4249    4897
1967   3710    4403    5142
1968   3604    4531    5071
1969   3868    4824    5123
1970   4143    4838    5072
1971   4278    4926    4955
1972   4292    5035    4509
1973   4497    5073    4305
1974   4870    5174    4273
1975   4898    5141    4116
1976   4964    5001    3976
1977   5199    4668    3902
1978   5249    4496    3838
1979   5223    4342    3767
1980   5162    4146    3731``````
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   4057    4620    4745
1922   4340    4602    4759
1923   4424    4564    4644
1924   4553    4605    4594
1925   4642    4631    4430
1926   4559    4672    4226
1927   4496    4629    4130
1928   4434    4479    4022
1929   4415    4341    3781
1930   4456    4186    3738
1931   4570    4070    3779
1932   4603    4089    3878
1933   4579    4179    3930
1934   4443    3943    3737
1935   4329    3963    3751
1936   4120    3853    3547
1937   3981    3725    3469
1938   4030    3721    3567
1939   3883    3655    3544
1940   3865    3622    3643
1941   3958    3688    3875
1942   3962    3782    4001
1943   3840    3719    3988
1944   3769    3688    4067
1945   3697    3736    4291
1946   3656    3837    4434
1947   3733    3947    4640
1948   3706    3974    4888
1949   3698    4078    5023
1950   3804    4361    5051
1951   3833    4430    5079
1952   3837    4531    5272
1953   3862    4781    5286
1954   3993    4943    5255
1955   4185    4880    5120
1956   4294    4942    4976
1957   4439    5179    4642
1958   4718    5219    4456
1959   4837    5137    4222
1960   4836    5069    4015
1961   4922    4951    3905
1962   5141    4592    3797
1963   5175    4394    3701
1964   5118    4196    3571
1965   5041    3974    3506
1966   4921    3862    3380
1967   4594    3800    3333
1968   4304    3621    3188
1969   4201    3578    3120
1970   4018    3563    3039
1971   3911    3444    2977
1972   3730    3277    2863
1973   3622    3191    2714
1974   3674    3258    2801
1975   3691    3237    2776
1976   3529    3114    2539
1977   3469    3128    2363
1978   3451    3074    2408
1979   3392    2976    2406
1980   3298    2842    2385``````
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30

Code: Select all

``````1921   162351    172234    199669
1922   129868    153917    218708
1923   114283    138491    196356
1924   143873    153897    203534
1925   121338    145179    215018
1926   133419    141520    190089
1927   144052    114267    177889
1928    97912     77615    105045
1929    76560     44692     43754
1930    79980     47036     42783
1931    85054     64604     73915
1932   103663    120600    196377
1933   115516    153478    253538
1934    93954    103048    171725
1935   110384    146407    224981
1936    94236    104567    132255
1937    64866     71681     71782
1938    80190    110431    152454
1939    73540    113711    133476
1940    78793    121298    132189
1941   100946    162731    191003
1942   125033    215879    251401
1943   125146    197974    246930
1944   112949    192507    191149
1945   126829    188776    146154
1946   125168    174133    146349
1947   154145    208565    194110
1948   154728    232451    187766
1949   177387    231555    182257
1950   173775    208136    178063
1951   157334    181246    153384
1952   158536    172313    121544
1953   147505    173168    123135
1954   163390    155775    132927
1955   137759     97260     83328
1956   124773     90379     65669
1957   118687     91627     75689
1958   135111     92288     86986
1959   112968     67209     48827
1960   102412     63044     49613
1961   100626     61796     44011
1962    94638     44974     31532
1963   104619     52258     42363
1964    81756     41153     21768
1965    62026     31968      9017
1966    64950     29564      5247
1967    70834     42689     25794
1968    60298     37099     25679
1969    56594     33900     22361
1970    62039     50007     57784
1971    62363     46463     54885
1972    52594     49757     50090
1973    53105     49165     47132
1974    69981     79208     81587
1975    91020    115479    118696
1976    80789    100763     76509
1977    91083    114687     70962
1978   104513    168004     87217
1979   112255    202489     83020
1980   123013    222259     76208``````
This completes the data at a 2% interest rate.

This completes the data.

Have fun.

John R.