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hocus2004
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Joined: 10 Jun 2004
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"As I see it you guys are trying to figure out the FUTURE SWR (FSWR) while the conventional studies calculated the HISTORICAL SWR (HSWR).
(and never claimed it to be safe in the FUTURE). "

Ben:

Would you be willing to put up a post at the Motley Fool board asking intercst whether he agrees that the the REHP study does not provide guidance on what withdrawal rate is safe for a retirement beginning today?


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ben
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Location: The world is not enough

PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Hocus Very Happy,
but it DOES provide GUIDANCE. Historically 4% was safe for all 30 year periods covered by the study. Pretty good guidance for me. Now; how I/others decide to USE this historical information (HSWR) is then a different story. I will personally NOT translate it directly into FSWR and neither does the studies.
Cheers!



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JWR1945
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Joined: 26 Nov 2002
Posts: 1697
Location: Crestview, Florida

PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ben
Quote:
As I see it you guys are trying to figure out the FUTURE SWR (FSWR) while the conventional studies calculated the HISTORICAL SWR (HSWR).
(and never claimed it to be safe in the FUTURE).

This is demonstrably untrue when it comes to what intercst claims and has claimed.
Quote:
Now; how I/others decide to USE this historical information (HSWR) is then a different story.

This shows that we have made real progress.
Quote:
I will personally NOT translate it directly into FSWR and neither does the studies.

The problem is that advocates do make that translation. intercst uses the caveat assuming that the future is no worse than the past both to imply that safety is virtually certain and to provide an excuse if any actual outcome is unsuccessful, no matter how likely or unlikely.

The conventional methodology is improperly set up as a statistical problem. Any outcome that happens to fail automatically becomes a case in which the future turns out to be worse than the past. The caveat guarantees that the rates identified by the study will be safe unless they fail. If they fail, it will mean that the future has turned out to be worse than the past. It is a meaningless tautology.

Have fun.

John R.


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hocus2004
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 14, 2004 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"but it DOES provide GUIDANCE."

Extremely poor guidance. Extremely dangerous guidance. Raddr did a standard deviation analysis to determine how likely it is that we will see the core assumption of the REHP study--that for the first time in history changes in valuation will have zero effect on long-term returns--will play out. He determined that the odds of this happening are only 1 in 740. Intercst rarely (if ever) makes note of how great the odds are against his core assumption. He stresses the "100 percent safe" claim, giving people the impression that it is prudent to take a 4 percent withdrawal from a 74 percent S&P portfolio. And that is something that is not prudent at all, according to the historical data. The historical data shows that anyone following that strategy at today's valuations is taking a 50 percent chance of seeing a busted retirement. People need to know that.

How about this? Would you be willing to go to the Motley Fool board and put up a post asking that intercst call off the Campaign of Terror? If he were to ask his supporters to stop the Smear Campaigns and stop the death threats and stop the word games and the other nonsense, then we all could have reasoned discussions as to whether the conventional SWR methodology or the data-based SWR methodology provides the better guidance. Each community member could hear the case for both sides and make up his or her mind as to how to proceed for himself or herself.

How does that sound to you, Ben?


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ben
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 14, 2004 4:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Quote:
Now; how I/others decide to USE this historical information (HSWR) is then a different story.

This shows that we have made real progress.


No JWR - while I find your calculations/discussions interesting it is none of that discussion that make me decide for myself how to use the study results - it is simply common sense.

Hocus;
1. I think that you will never be welcome at REHP again - you burned that bridge yourself I am afraid.
2. Thanks for the credit you give me that I should be able to change the attitude at the REHP board with a post Laughing

You had you chances there - forget about that board and move on using this/other boards. The lost souls there that you think will have busted retirements due to confusing the HSWR with the FSWR you must just let burn in retirement-hell.

Cheers! Very Happy



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hocus2004
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 14, 2004 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"forget about that board and move on using this/other boards. "

The 51 percent vote against on-topic debate made an impression on me, Ben. I am less optimistic about the Motley Fool board today than I have been at any time in the past.

But I am not as pessimistic as you. Things go up and down and around in time. A board that can go from being one of the most thought-provoking on the face of the internet into being a Clown Board can also go from being a Clown Board into being one of the most thought-provoking on the face of the internet. It may not happen. It may.. We will just have to wait and see.

I do agree with you that no one person can get that board back on the right track. It needs to be a group effort. In my optimistic moments, I focus on the fact that there is still 49 percent there with an interest in on-topic debate and tell myself that all hope is not lost.

Perhaps it's Gods plan that other boards become what the REHP board once was. If that is the way it is to be, then I need to accept it, regardless of how much it saddens me to do so. That board is my first true love and it will always hold a special place in my heart. No one can take away from me the memories of the many wonderful times that I had at that board in better days.

I have not given up on that board as of today. But I am probably about 50 percent of the way there. I'm just going to wait and see how things go and make my decisions based on how the cards play out.

"The lost souls there that you think will have busted retirements due to confusing the HSWR with the FSWR you must just let burn in retirement-hell. "

The many community members there that many times expressed a desire to hold reasoned discussions re SWRs do not deserve to burn in retirement hell, Ben. It is the small number who engaged in abusive posting practices to block the discussions that should take the blame for the board's current troubles. It is only a small fraction of the board community that engaged in aggresive pursuit of an agenda of disruption. Most people in that board community are like most people everywhere. They enjoy learning about new ideas and they love the idea of achieving financial freedom early in life. The board is now a Clown Board, but it is not a Clown Board because that is what the majority of the community that congregates there wished for it to become.

Free the REHP 49 (percent)!


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ben
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 14, 2004 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Free the REHP 49 (percent)!


He,he - good one! Reminds me of The Matrix! Cheers!



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