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Some people are jerks, but you never knew it ;-(
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hocus2004
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2004 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"I've have just begun to polarize!"

Those are encouraging words.

The good effects of a small amount of the right kind of polarization up front saves us from a the bad effects of a large amount of the bad kind of polarization down the line.

Each post that any of us puts up sends signals to other community members. If posters get a little out of line, and we send a signal that they had better rein themselves in, they usually do so. If we send a signal that there will be no consequences for their violations of our community standards, they go farther and farther out on a limb until it becomes almost impossible to pull them back.

We all need to work a lot harder on sending the right sorts of signals to our fellow community members so that they don't somewhere down the line end up losing out on the benefit of participation in our community and so that we don't somewhere down the line end up losing out on the benefit of their participation.

ES plays the lead role on board administration issues. But we all have an important role to play in steering the board in the direction in which we want to see it go.


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ElSupremo
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2004 6:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings hocus Smile
Quote:
But we all have an important role to play in steering the board in the direction in which we want to see it go.

Now that, is well said!



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ElSupremo
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2004 7:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings NFBers Smile

Despite the flood of recommendations coming in, this thread will not be the Post of the Week. Laughing



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Bookm
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2004 7:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings all. ES said:
Quote:
Despite the flood of recommendations coming in, this thread will not be the Post of the Week.

Laughing I had no misconceptions otherwise my friend. Wink

Bookm



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kathyet
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2004 7:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
ES plays the lead role on board administration issues. But we all have an important role to play in steering the board in the direction in which we want to see it go.


Okay, but have you ever seen 3 or 4 people in a row boat all rowing different ways at the same time....I think they go in circles.

Kathyet


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mickeyd
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2004 8:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As an uninterested observer- you all seem to be obsessed with this situation. I know that no one invited me into this thread and you would probably wish me to go away but I suggest you drop it and just get along.



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ataloss
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi mickeyd, it is pretty uninteresting as a matter of fact. I am amused that hocus wants it to be board policy that anyone who points out his trasgressions should be silenced as a matter of board policy. glad to see that es is not giving in. Wink



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hocus2004
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not helpful.


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unclemick
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2004 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1959 Dr. John C. Houbolt (lunar orbit rendezvous) vs the main cat Maxine Faget. Great polarization - screaming debate - in the end, the data won. And then there was that un - American, un - patriotic upstart Bogle and his index fund vs true Americans who don't accept average like Fidelity et al. In the end - data.


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ataloss
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2004 2:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi unclemick, I guess raddr would be the houbolt in this scenario. he is running a board inexpensively and successfully and put up a post to assuage concerns that the increased board volume was going to lead to problems. ES took offense at this. I want ES to be happy and I appreciate all the hard work and money he has put into this site. otoh, I am delighted for raddr that he has found a low effort, inexpensive way to run a board. Iow, it would have been a great technical achievement to return a massive rocket from the moon but better to find a more practical alternative.

the other thing about data at the hocus board is his take on it. he claims to have invented some sort of "data based swr" in the mid 90s but then the "data" was this stuff that jwr has been generating for the last couple of years. I went from trying to educate him to debating and now I am working on ignoring him like the successful posters on this forum Laughing



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ElSupremo
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2004 4:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings ataloss Smile

Any success he's had is due to his stealing members from NFB. Whatever message you are talking about is only one of many since he slimed out of here and I just got sick of hearing about it. And it's not just volume but time and I don't think he'll ever have to worry about that because he won't put the time into it that I do. Except perhaps in the stealing of other sites members. That's low cost, and doesn't take much time or effort. Rolling Eyes

I'm glad you want me to be happy and FYI I am extremely happy. Very Happy Life is going well and I'm in the company of my true friends. What more could anyone ask. Cool



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unclemick
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2004 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Other than being upset as to who ended up playing on which team - how about a cross forum game of skins and shirts:

Team 1. Bogle (with De Gaul and the Nowegian widow(shirts)). Buy his 'policy portfolio' and adjust as required thru 30 years of retirement.

Team 2. Bernstein. The 'best' slice and dice asset class portfolio using correlation, expected returns, rebalancing, SD, MPT stuff. 30 yrs of retirement.

Pick your best/worst historical 30 yr spans to illustrate your points.

Data Rules. Number on!


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ataloss
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2004 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

unclemick, don't think you will see much data. for my part I am skeptical about swr claims and the more strongly somone insists on their method the more suspicious I become. Will rogers may have said " It isn't what you don't know that hurts you. It's what you know for sure . . . that just ain't so."

Hocus wants to talk about how he has been mistreated, the truth has been suppressed and so forth. when you get right down to it he has nothing of importance to say about swr (unless you count the claim that some guy on another board is wrong)

es, posters come and go. many here came from tmf. I don't see this as stealing but more of a migration to a more agreeable place Very Happy



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bpp
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
unclemick, don't think you will see much data.


Yes, the issue is not Total Market vs Slice-and-Dice, or The-One-True-SWR-For-Fluffy-Kittens-and-Puppies vs The-Axis-of-Evil-of-the-False-SWR. It is really all just about personality conflicts. Nobody actually seems to disagree passionately enough about the technical issues to get into flamewars about them (the answers being essentially unknowable) -- they just dislike each other personally.

ES has put a lot of effort and resources into creating a forum for (originally) TMF refugees. I'm not one of the way-old-timers, but I appreciate what he has done, and intend to keep posting here as long as it stands. I'll also occasionally post elsewhere.

Bpp


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hocus2004
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Nobody actually seems to disagree passionately enough about the technical issues to get into flamewars about them (the answers being essentially unknowable) -- they just dislike each other personally. "

You are right that few care enough about the substance issues to get into flame wars about them, bpp. There are many who care enough about the substance issues to want to engage in reasoned discussions of them, however. The Post Archives at three different boards show that to be so.

You are not right to say that the flame wars are because people dislike each other personally. Me and Wanderer got to know each other from posting we both did on the Motley Fool board, and we grew to like each other enough so that we met for lunch when he visited the United Stares. There is no personal dislike between me and Wanderer or any other poster on any other board.

The problem is that these posters do not want me to tell the truth about what the historical data says re SWRs. The historical data says one thing and the intercst study says something very different and intercst has made it clear that he will do all that is in his power to destory any poster who tells the community what the historical data says. The three lead posters at this board made clear to me that I was not to say that intercst got the number wrong in his study or there would be consequences. I went ahead and said he got the number wrong. The roof caved in on me.

The problem we (and the other boards) face is a problem of board integrity. Intercst will stop at nothing and no one in his efforts to block reasoned discussions of SWRs. The historical data says what it says and there is nothing that anyone can ever do to change it. Sooner or later either intercst or the historical data has to go. I believe very strongly that it is going to be the historical data that is going to remain with us for the long run and that it is going to be intercst who will depart.

Raddr knows perfectly well that intercst got the number wrong in his study. Raddr has looked at the same data that I did and that Bernstein did and that JWR1945 did and come to roughly the same conclusions, conclusions nowhere remotely in the ballpark of the findings of the intercst study. No one has ever looked at the data and come to a finding even remotely in the ballpark of the intercst findings for the valuation levels that have applied since the late 1990s. Raddr has referred to the intercst findings as "bogus" and he was right to do so.

The friction developed because Ataloss made a decision that he was going to use his influence as a board leader to block me from telling the truth re SWRs. Raddr joined in because he is friends with Ataloss. It was impossible for raddr to offer reasoned arguments in favor of the conventional methodology, so he was forced to engage in deceptions and word games and smears to make his case. He now does not want his posting history exposed. He has painted himself into a corner.

I have no desire to have raddr stuck in a corner. If he could see his way to begin posting in an honest and informed way again, he could again be one of our best posters on SWRs and other questions. My focus is on restoring the integrity of the board experience. I want people to be able to come to these boards and find honest and informed posting on the subject of how to achieve financial independence early in life. Providing that sort of information is my Life Project. It is the reason why I built up the first board (the REHP board) into the most successful finance-related board in the history of the Motley Fool site in the first place.

You are overstating things when you say that no one cares enough about the SWR issue to engage in flame wars about it. There is one among us who cares enough to burn entire board communities to the ground over it. That's intercst. He will not permit us to post in peace on this question. His influence extends even to boards at which he does not post. He has never posted here, but ataloss has followed the same practices to block reasoned debate here that intercst employed at the Motley Fool board.

The intercst effort to keep us all living in the past cannot succeed long term. At some point people are going to learn what the data says whether intercst wants them to or not. So intercst is not going to be with us for the long term. Our question today is, How much more damage do we want to permit intercst to do before we pull the plug? I think it would be a great kindness for every member of the community (including intercst, by the way) if we pulled the plug today.


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ben
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Hocus! Very Happy
You know I admire the energy you put into this. You also know that we do not agree on a couple of items - but never any fire wars between us. (When you get TOO exited about this I can't help laughing as you know Laughing).
Personally I will NEVER base my FIRE on a set % no. Just plain stupid in my book.

The main thing I think you misunderstand:
Quote:
The problem is that these posters do not want me to tell the truth about what the historical data says re SWRs.

They really do not mind. As long as it is done resonably short and to the point - and has a real tool attached besides "please read 10000 posts of JWR and me" then they don't mind. (well; NOW they might do - but you get the point Very Happy)

I believe JWR have developed a tool (spreadsheet) and Intercst has kindly enough allowed same posted on his homepage! I.e. proves my point: something concrete and factual and suddenly Intercst does NOT block the "truth". Very Happy



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hocus2004
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2004 2:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"I believe JWR have developed a tool (spreadsheet) and Intercst has kindly enough allowed same posted on his homepage! I.e. proves my point: something concrete and factual and suddenly Intercst does NOT block the "truth"."

The Post Archives do not support you on this, Ben.

JWR1945 developed that downloadable spreadsheet a long time before it was posted at the intercst site. He told intercst that he was having trouble sending it and asked for help. Intercst did not even respond to the e-mail. Does that sound like someone lookiing to spread "concrete and factual" information?

JWR1945 has been putting forward concrete and factual information on this since the very first days. His early posts were wildly popular, often getting 30, 40, 50, or 60 recs at the Motley Fool board. What was intercst's response to the community's clear desire to see more of JWR1945's research? He took to disrupting every thread in which JWR1945 put forward his research, calling JWR1945 a "dimwit" and a "meatball" and other names, and encouraging his goon squad to join in the disruptions.

Why do you think it is that JWR1945 doesn't post at Motley Fool anymore? It is because intercst has made it clear for 26 months running that he will do everything in his power to block reasoned debate.

Why would intercst encourage posters to put forward threats of physical violence against anyone who posted honestly what the historical data says if he had a desire for "concrete and factual" posts? Have you ever heard of any competent researcher who announced his findings and then added "by the way, if you ask questions about my methodology, I will kill you." It is just not done.

Intercst's only qualification to produce a "study" on SWRs is that he is a guy who learned how to post stuff on the internet. That is it. JWR1945 is qualified to do research. William Bernstein is qualified to do research. That's why Bernstein and JWR1945 have come to findings nowhere in the ballpark of the intercst "findings."

Why has intercst never put up a response to the Bernstein claims, if he has any genuine belief that his findings are supported by the data? If he thought that Bernstein was being unfair to refer to the intercst methodology as "highly misleading," wouldn't the expected thing to do be to put up an article on his site saying where Bernstein got it wrong? No such article has ever been published at the intercst site. Why?

The guy lacks the qualifications to tell us what the historical data says re SWRs. That's not a big deal. There is no law that says that he must possess such qualifications. The big deal is that he will not shoort striaght with us, he will not acknowledge that he made a mistake.

There are still people to this day who refer others to the intercst study as if it were a legitimate piece of research. To the extent that anyone believes that it is, those who recommened the study are putting those people at risk of suffering busted retirements. That should stop.

It is not "rude" to point out that a study that someone posted at an internet site got a number wrong. That is the sort of thing that all of us are supposed to be doing. If we are going to talk about what the data says re SWRs, we should report what the data says accurately. Those not willing or able to report accurately what the data says should not post on this question at all.


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ataloss
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2004 3:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The problem we (and the other boards) face is a problem of board integrity.


I would agree with hocus on this one. To keep hocus from going ballistic (as es desires) you have to ignore the fact that he really doesn't make much sense. few are willing to wade through all the verbiage. (and I think this is part of the plan) To a greater or lesser extent many agree that future returns from a s&p based stock portfolio are likely to be lower and a reasonable person would not count on the same withdrawal rate as in the past. past safe withdrawal rates may have even been the result of a lucky sequence (link) as raddr has pointed out.

All hocus has is his indignation about intercst. his claim the rehp study ( http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/ ) and the trinity study are "wrong." if you look through the post archives you can find me correcting his misquotes of bernstein and his inconsistencies (although some of those threads got a little flamey and were deleted by es) I think I put more effort into understanding his "insights" than anyone else but ultimately I found nothing there. In the first hocusian period at this board he was free to share his "insights" but he really didn't have any. In the interest of board harmony he was banned. In this second hocusian period it seems that he has been free to divulge the secrets of his "insights" but he has really failed to come up with anything. I am continually amused that he developed the "data based swr" in the mid 90s, announced a great debate in 2002, and has had jwr working on the data since then. (he keeps pointing at recent jwr posts apparently not getting the point Laughing)

the problem with nfb as I see it is that you have someone making bizarre claims that can't be challenged and to post here harmoniously you have to ignore him.

hocus and jwr are currently trying to convince es that he, along with them, is the victim of a grand conspiracy to suppress the truth about swr orchestrated by intercst and supported by me, dory, raddr, wanderer, th and who knows who else.

so I do have an issue with board integrity although I have retired from detailed responses to the misleading/wrong aspects of the hocus posts.

does anyone wonder why I find it more pleasant to post on hocus free boards?



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Last edited by ataloss on Mon Aug 02, 2004 6:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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hocus2004
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2004 3:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's substance:

http://www.nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2837


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hocus2004
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's nonsense:

Hyperborea: " I finally gave up on the composite creature that includes the alias h@cus and probably quite a few more (e.g. jwr1945).  Who knows whether the h@cus story is closer to the real one (guy who tried to RE with way too llittle and went mad with the worry) or the jwr1945 story (REd guy who is ~60 - i.e. b.1945 - and gets his jollies by causing mayhem on internet boards). "

Raddr commented on this recent post to the Early Retirement Forum approvingly, suggesting that he sees nothing deceptive about the claim put forward here that JWR1945 "gets his jollies by causing mayhem on internet boards."

Raddr's first deception post was the one in which he claimed that my quote from Bernstein re the Gordon Equation was "out of context." I said at the time that other community members had a responsibility to rein in raddr before he did more damage to himself and to other community members. Considering where the failure to rein him in has led him, are there any today who would say that we did a favor to raddr by sitting on out hands while he continued further and further down the dark road of deception?

I say that we have let raddr and a lot of other posters (and ourselves) down in a serious way by our failure to insist on minimal standards of veracity at these boards. I say that it is time to put an end to the nonsense and begin the rebuilding process. Once we turn that corner, things begin to look a lot brighter in a lot of different ways.


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