Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

Moderator: hocus2004

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

I have successfully posted four of my modified calculators at Yahoo briefcase. I have checked everything out. These are memory hogs: they consume 5 MB each. I was unsuccessful in posting them as zip files. [I don't know where the problem is. I posted something but I was not able to recover the calculators when I tried to download them.]

BTW, it took me 5 hours to figure everything out. With computers, things always go a whole lot faster the second time.

I have attached a short description of the modifications below.

Have fun.

John R.

++++++

REHP Deluxe V1.0A is the basic Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator (Version 1.61 of November 7, 2002) with a fully functional switching capability and with a variety of data analysis enhancements.

Switching is limited to portfolios of stocks and commercial paper.

The unmodified Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator did not include its intended switching capabilities because of Excel programming limitations. I have added row 2550, which calculates the total stock return. Its calculation is exactly the same as was originally made in row 182. By making this calculation separately, I have been able to implement the full switching logic that was originally intended. Excel does not allow enough code to do everything in row 182 by itself. The modified logic in row 182 now uses both P/E10 switching thresholds and all three portfolio allocations. [Previously, the only cells F19, B20 and I20 were functional. Cells I19 and F20 were not used.]

[I have included rows 2560-2562, which summarize the more stable portion of returns: dividends and dividends plus interest.]

There are two data analysis groups.

The first is in columns L through T and rows 1 through 9 and in columns BA through BJ and rows 1 through 144. This area makes determining which portfolios would have survived as a function of withdrawal rates much easier. In particular, it allows you to select the retirement start years that you are interested in. I usually examine 30-year retirements from 1871-1980 and 1921-1980. Notice that I include some partially completed sequences (which are subjected to dummy data after 2002) but not all.

I have put the instructions for using the other area of data analysis in columns F through I and in rows 12 through 17. Simply press function key F5 (Go To) and enter the proper location.

Here is another helpful hint. Use the shortcut CTRL+HOME to return to the beginning of the spreadsheet (at cell A1). It saves a lot of time.

JanSz-Chips Deluxe V1.0B includes three additional enhancements.
1) The JanSz feature reduces the portfolio balance by a specified percentage of any increase from six years earlier. It leaves the balance untouched when there is a decrease. It should normally be set to 0%.
2) The Chips feature allows you to specify what fraction of the dividend amount that you reinvest. It should normally be set to 100%.
3) The B feature expands the switching capabilities. It introduces four P/E10 thresholds with five allocations. However, the stock allocation below the lowest threshold is fixed at 100% and the stock allocation above the highest threshold is fixed at 0%. You can choose any combination of percentages for the intermediate allocations. In version V1.0B, switching is limited to portfolios of stocks and commercial paper.

JanSz-Chips Deluxe V2.0B TIPS is identical except that switching is with portfolios of stocks and TIPS.

JanSz-Chips Deluxe V3.0B ibond is identical except that switching is with portfolios of stocks and ibonds.

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
From Yahoo Briefcase Help

Yes, you can access someone's Briefcase if the person has created a folder or album and has granted access to you specifically. This means the account owner has entered your Yahoo! ID in their list of friends to share with.
*For Premium accounts only - If a Yahoo! Briefcase Premium account owner has created a folder or album and made the contents public or specifically granted you access, then you can view that person's Briefcase.
Simply go to the person's Briefcase. If, for example, his Yahoo! ID is "Yahoo_JoeUser," you would go to:
http://briefcase.yahoo.com/Yahoo_JoeUser
You can then download and view the files in that person's folder.
You can also easily access someone's Briefcase from their public profile. If that person has chosen to list their Briefcase on their profile, click on the link to access their public files.
*Please note: If you are a member of the free Yahoo! Briefcase service, public access to your uploaded files will no longer be available. However, you will still be able to share your files with people with Yahoo! IDs and via email.

I copied these addresses from the top and bottom of the main page.

http://briefcase.yahoo.com/jwr19452000

For quick access, bookmark: http://f2.pg.briefcase.yahoo.com/jwr19452000

Have fun.

John R.

JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/jwr1945.html