Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates
Moderator: hocus2004
JWR1945
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Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
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by JWR1945 » Wed Mar 17, 2004 9:26 am
Here are the inflation rate, interest rate of commercial paper and dividend yields of stocks (as represented by the S&P500 index). I have included the overall composite of interest plus dividends for stock allocations of 25%, 50% and 75% stocks as well.
Code: Select all
Year Inflation Interest 25% 50% 75% Dividends
1871
1872 1.53 7.81 7.21 6.61 6.02 5.42
1873 2.26 8.35 7.74 7.13 6.53 5.92
1874 (4.41) 6.86 6.92 6.97 7.03 7.08
1875 (6.92) 4.96 5.52 6.09 6.65 7.21
1876 (5.79) 5.33 5.68 6.03 6.38 6.73
1877 0.88 5.03 5.82 6.61 7.40 8.19
1878 (15.65) 4.9 5.13 5.36 5.59 5.82
1879 (10.31) 4.25 4.46 4.66 4.87 5.08
1880 20.69 5.1 4.83 4.56 4.28 4.01
1881 (5.71) 4.79 4.66 4.54 4.41 4.28
1882 8.08 5.26 5.30 5.33 5.37 5.41
1883 (1.87) 5.35 5.39 5.44 5.48 5.52
1884 (7.62) 5.65 5.82 5.99 6.17 6.34
1885 (10.31) 4.22 4.96 5.70 6.44 7.17
1886 (3.45) 4.26 4.34 4.42 4.50 4.58
1887 0.00 6.11 5.58 5.05 4.52 3.99
1888 4.76 5.02 4.93 4.85 4.76 4.68
1889 (4.55) 4.68 4.60 4.53 4.45 4.37
1890 (4.76) 5.41 5.08 4.75 4.42 4.09
1891 2.50 5.97 5.61 5.26 4.90 4.55
1892 (6.10) 3.93 3.95 3.98 4.00 4.02
1893 7.79 8.52 7.46 6.41 5.35 4.29
1894 (13.25) 3.32 3.92 4.52 5.11 5.71
1895 (4.17) 3.09 3.54 4.00 4.45 4.90
1896 1.45 5.76 5.43 5.10 4.76 4.43
1897 (2.86) 3.44 3.65 3.85 4.06 4.27
1898 2.94 3.55 3.59 3.64 3.68 3.72
1899 1.43 3.36 3.35 3.33 3.32 3.30
1900 16.90 4.64 4.37 4.10 3.83 3.57
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Wed Mar 17, 2004 9:30 am
Code: Select all
Year Inflation Interest 25% 50% 75% Dividends
1901 (2.41) 4.3 4.29 4.28 4.28 4.27
1902 2.47 4.72 4.53 4.34 4.14 3.95
1903 9.64 5.5 5.11 4.71 4.32 3.92
1904 (4.40) 4.34 4.55 4.77 4.98 5.19
1905 2.30 4.17 4.05 3.93 3.82 3.70
1906 0.00 5.47 4.95 4.44 3.92 3.40
1907 4.49 6.23 5.73 5.22 4.72 4.22
1908 (2.15) 5.32 5.58 5.85 6.11 6.38
1909 3.30 3.65 3.85 4.05 4.25 4.45
1910 10.64 5.26 5.04 4.82 4.61 4.39
1911 (6.73) 4 4.27 4.54 4.80 5.07
1912 (1.03) 4.35 4.55 4.76 4.96 5.16
1913 7.29 5.65 5.53 5.41 5.28 5.16
1914 2.04 4.64 4.90 5.16 5.42 5.68
1915 1.00 3.65 4.14 4.64 5.13 5.63
1916 2.97 3.64 3.91 4.18 4.45 4.72
1917 12.50 4.25 4.68 5.11 5.54 5.96
1918 19.66 5.98 6.84 7.71 8.57 9.43
1919 17.86 5.56 5.97 6.39 6.80 7.22
1920 16.97 7.3 6.97 6.64 6.31 5.98
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Wed Mar 17, 2004 9:35 am
Code: Select all
Year Inflation Interest 25% 50% 75% Dividends
1921 (1.55) 7.44 7.36 7.28 7.20 7.11
1922 (11.05) 4.58 5.02 5.47 5.91 6.36
1923 (0.59) 4.96 5.16 5.35 5.55 5.75
1924 2.98 4.34 4.76 5.18 5.60 6.02
1925 0.00 3.87 4.21 4.55 4.90 5.24
1926 3.47 4.28 4.41 4.54 4.67 4.80
1927 (2.23) 4.26 4.49 4.73 4.96 5.20
1928 (1.14) 4.64 4.59 4.54 4.48 4.43
1929 (1.16) 6.01 5.37 4.73 4.10 3.46
1930 0.00 4.15 4.23 4.31 4.39 4.47
1931 (7.02) 2.43 3.33 4.24 5.14 6.05
1932 (10.06) 3.36 4.91 6.46 8.01 9.56
1933 (9.79) 1.46 2.84 4.22 5.60 6.98
1934 2.33 1.01 1.80 2.60 3.39 4.18
1935 3.03 0.75 1.78 2.80 3.83 4.86
1936 1.47 0.75 1.43 2.12 2.80 3.49
1937 2.17 0.88 1.70 2.52 3.33 4.15
1938 0.71 0.88 2.41 3.95 5.48 7.01
1939 (1.41) 0.56 1.45 2.33 3.22 4.11
1940 (0.71) 0.56 1.69 2.81 3.94 5.07
1941 1.44 0.53 1.99 3.46 4.92 6.38
1942 11.35 0.63 2.44 4.25 6.06 7.88
1943 7.64 0.69 1.98 3.27 4.56 5.85
1944 2.96 0.72 1.83 2.95 4.06 5.18
1945 2.30 0.75 1.75 2.76 3.76 4.77
1946 2.25 0.76 1.49 2.23 2.96 3.70
1947 18.13 1.01 1.93 2.85 3.77 4.69
1948 10.23 1.35 2.43 3.52 4.60 5.69
1949 1.27 1.58 2.73 3.87 5.02 6.16
1950 (2.08) 1.32 2.69 4.07 5.44 6.81
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Wed Mar 17, 2004 9:38 am
Code: Select all
Year Inflation Interest 25% 50% 75% Dividends
1951 8.09 2.12 3.34 4.56 5.79 7.01
1952 4.33 2.39 3.25 4.12 4.98 5.84
1953 0.38 2.58 3.28 3.98 4.68 5.39
1954 1.13 1.8 2.78 3.76 4.74 5.72
1955 (0.74) 1.81 2.44 3.08 3.71 4.34
1956 0.37 3.21 3.35 3.50 3.64 3.78
1957 2.99 3.86 3.85 3.84 3.83 3.82
1958 3.62 2.54 2.99 3.44 3.89 4.34
1959 1.40 3.74 3.59 3.45 3.30 3.16
1960 1.03 4.28 4.01 3.75 3.48 3.22
1961 1.71 2.91 3.00 3.08 3.17 3.26
1962 0.67 3.39 3.28 3.16 3.05 2.93
1963 1.33 3.5 3.45 3.39 3.34 3.28
1964 1.64 4.09 3.82 3.55 3.28 3.00
1965 0.97 4.46 4.08 3.69 3.31 2.92
1966 1.92 5.44 4.81 4.19 3.56 2.94
1967 3.46 5.55 5.02 4.48 3.95 3.41
1968 3.65 6.17 5.40 4.63 3.85 3.08
1969 4.40 8.05 6.79 5.53 4.28 3.02
1970 6.18 9.11 7.71 6.31 4.90 3.50
1971 5.29 5.66 5.08 4.50 3.93 3.35
1972 3.27 4.62 4.21 3.80 3.38 2.97
1973 3.65 7.93 6.61 5.30 3.98 2.67
1974 9.39 11.03 9.16 7.28 5.41 3.54
1975 11.80 7.24 6.68 6.12 5.56 4.99
1976 6.72 5.7 5.23 4.75 4.28 3.80
1977 5.22 5.28 4.95 4.61 4.28 3.95
1978 6.84 7.78 7.14 6.50 5.86 5.22
1979 9.28 10.88 9.44 8.00 6.57 5.13
1980 13.91 11.37 9.81 8.25 6.70 5.14
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Wed Mar 17, 2004 9:45 am
Code: Select all
Year Inflation Interest 25% 50% 75% Dividends
1981 11.83 17.63 14.39 11.15 7.90 4.66
1982 8.39 14.6 12.37 10.14 7.91 5.68
1983 3.71 9.37 8.22 7.07 5.92 4.77
1984 4.19 11.11 9.40 7.69 5.99 4.28
1985 3.53 8.35 7.37 6.38 5.40 4.41
1986 3.89 7.31 6.44 5.56 4.69 3.81
1987 1.46 6.25 5.47 4.69 3.92 3.14
1988 4.05 7.63 6.61 5.58 4.56 3.54
1989 4.67 9.29 7.83 6.36 4.90 3.44
1990 5.20 8.43 7.14 5.85 4.57 3.28
1991 5.65 6.92 6.12 5.32 4.52 3.72
1992 2.60 3.91 3.67 3.43 3.18 2.94
1993 3.26 3.44 3.29 3.15 3.00 2.85
1994 2.52 4.35 3.93 3.51 3.09 2.67
1995 2.80 6.45 5.55 4.64 3.74 2.83
1996 2.73 5.68 4.83 3.97 3.12 2.26
1997 3.04 5.78 4.82 3.87 2.91 1.95
1998 1.57 5.49 4.52 3.55 2.58 1.61
1999 1.67 5.14 4.18 3.22 2.26 1.30
2000 2.68 6.22 4.96 3.70 2.43 1.17
2001 3.14 3.95 3.27 2.59 1.90 1.22
2002 1.78 1.76 1.67 1.57 1.48 1.38
These tables help you place stock market behavior into context. Notice that commercial paper interest rates stayed high long after inflation had peaked.
Have fun.
John R.
Mike
*** Veteran
Posts: 278 Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 4:00 am
Post
by Mike » Wed Mar 17, 2004 8:01 pm
Notice that commercial paper interest rates stayed high long after inflation had peaked.
I notice also that rates stayed too low long after inflation had risen. This may be a bit ominious if the inflation that the fed is deliberately trying to engineer gets a bit out of control. I remember reading that Weimar Republic officials were only trying to engineer a small amount of inflation, but wound up competely destroying their currency.