Annualized Real Total Returns 100% stocks

Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

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JWR1945
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Annualized Real Total Returns 100% stocks

Post by JWR1945 »

Here are some tables of annualized real rates of returns for the S&P500 index after 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years.

This is for 100% stocks.

Dividends are reinvested. Expenses are 0.20%. I have listed P/E10 as well.

Code: Select all

Year  PE10    1     5     10     15     20     25     30
1871  13.3  12.92   9.40  12.47  10.18   8.40   7.79   8.31
1872  14.5   8.40   3.80  10.34  10.06   8.96   7.51   8.40
1873  15.3   2.61   5.07  10.04   9.10   8.43   7.79   8.05
1874  13.9  12.20   9.86  10.10   9.46   8.02   8.68   7.49
1875  13.6  11.19  11.60   8.73   9.44   7.79   7.66   7.93
1876  13.3 (13.15) 15.63  10.57   8.07   7.39   8.09   8.21
1877  10.6  15.21  17.30  13.33  10.74   8.46   9.34   8.59
1878   9.7  28.22  15.23  11.17   9.57   8.48   8.65   7.26
1879  10.7  21.35  10.33   9.25   7.40   8.37   7.00   7.34
1880  15.3  32.75   5.94   8.37   6.55   6.70   7.21   6.83
1881  18.5  (6.70)  5.74   4.47   4.78   6.29   6.78   5.95
1882  15.7   5.43   9.49   7.60   5.67   7.44   6.93   6.35
1883  15.3   3.16   7.26   6.84   6.32   7.07   5.73   6.15
1884  14.4  (0.94)  8.20   5.98   7.74   6.21   6.78   5.81
1885  13.1  31.50  10.86   6.86   6.95   7.53   7.00   5.62
1886  16.7  11.07   3.22   4.30   6.47   7.05   6.00   5.45
1887  17.5  (4.89)  5.73   3.80   6.76   6.30   5.74   4.95
1888  15.4   7.75   6.42   5.86   7.00   5.35   5.93   3.92
1889  15.8  11.87   3.81   7.52   5.56   6.43   5.34   3.60
1890  17.2  (7.98)  3.00   5.05   6.44   6.06   4.60   3.25
1891  15.4  25.27   5.39   8.13   8.35   6.70   5.91   3.13
1892  19.0  (1.76)  1.91   7.28   6.49   5.74   4.80   3.05
1893  17.7  (4.84)  5.30   7.29   5.00   5.81   3.43   3.97
1894  15.7   7.56  11.35   6.44   7.32   5.72   3.56   4.21
1895  16.5   3.20   7.14   8.20   7.10   5.01   3.30   4.73
1896  16.6   5.91  10.95   9.87   7.15   6.04   2.69   5.25
1897  17.0  15.72  12.93   8.85   7.04   5.53   3.28   5.49
1898  19.2  25.84   9.33   4.85   5.98   2.96   3.70   6.08
1899  22.9 (11.30)  1.74   5.36   3.91   1.70   2.84   6.62
1900  18.7  22.89   9.27   7.08   4.30   2.37   4.25   6.74
JWR1945
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Year  PE10    1      5       10      15     20     25   30
1901  21.0  15.71    8.79   5.29    4.45   0.72  4.15  5.45
1902  22.3  (1.59)   4.92   4.22    3.18   1.00  4.07  3.61
1903  20.3 (12.16)   0.56   4.35    0.93   2.34  5.44  3.75
1904  15.9  26.72    9.11   5.01    1.69   3.11  7.63  5.59
1905  18.5  20.24    4.94   1.91    0.17   3.03  6.24  4.39
1906  20.1  (3.46)   1.91   2.34   (1.83)  3.02  4.80  5.15
1907  17.2 (20.42)   3.52   2.31   (0.27)  3.86  3.35  6.17
1908  11.9  32.09    8.28   1.11    2.95   6.70  4.39  5.75
1909  14.8   4.32    1.07  (1.83)   1.19   7.26  4.90  5.29
1910  14.5   3.83   (1.04) (2.15)   2.39   6.54  4.25  5.25
1911  14.0   4.41    2.78  (3.65)   3.39   5.53  5.81  4.81
1912  13.8  (0.35)   1.12  (2.12)   3.97   3.31  6.70  4.00
1913  13.1  (6.43)  (5.59)  0.38    6.17   3.44  5.25  4.35
1914  11.6  (6.14)  (4.65)  1.25    9.40   5.88  6.16  5.19
1915  10.4  25.47   (3.23)  4.17    9.23   5.65  6.59  5.92
1916  12.5  (3.72)  (9.68)  3.71    6.47   6.58  5.22  6.16
1917  11.0 (29.30)  (5.25)  5.40    4.02   8.12  4.56  5.26
1918   6.6  (1.69)   6.72  12.59    6.64   8.14  6.46  6.27
1919   6.1   1.08    7.51  17.19    9.64   9.04  7.27  6.61
1920   6.0 (11.16)  12.14  16.04    8.78   9.20  7.86  7.19
JWR1945
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Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Code: Select all

Year  PE10    1       5       10    15      20     25      30
1921  5.1  22.33   19.08   15.60 12.63   9.31   9.64   8.34
1922  6.3  28.17   17.29    9.04 13.02   7.21   7.53   8.11
1923  8.2   1.99   18.79    6.60  8.62   6.40   6.18   7.66
1924  8.1  24.81   27.74   10.73  9.56   7.22   6.43   7.64
1925  9.7  19.96   20.08    7.14  8.24   6.81   6.23   8.18   
1926 11.3  13.44   12.22    9.53  6.24   7.40   6.32   8.39
1927 13.2  36.54    1.37   10.94  4.04   5.22   6.36   8.06
1928 18.8  46.68   (4.33)   3.87  2.56   3.25   5.56   6.62
1929 27.1  (8.38)  (4.02)   1.47  1.14   1.68   4.02   6.36
1930 22.3 (14.50)  (4.40)   2.76  2.72   3.02   5.95   6.88
1931 16.7 (31.76)   6.92    3.37  5.85   4.89   7.64   7.59
1932  9.3   2.23   21.42    5.40  6.54   7.65   9.45   9.56
1933  8.7  49.07   12.78    6.19  5.90   8.19   8.95   9.33
1934 13.0 (10.19)   7.27    3.82  3.66   6.13   8.56   8.49
1935 11.5  49.58   10.46    6.48  5.62   8.71   9.29   9.36
1936 17.1  28.92   (0.06)   5.31  4.22   7.82   7.72   8.21
1937 21.6 (29.33)  (8.50)  (0.20) 3.41   6.64   7.33   6.95
1938 13.5  16.03   (0.01)   2.62  6.70   8.02   8.65   8.58
1939 15.6   4.00    0.48    1.90  5.76   8.89   8.74   8.24
1940 16.4  (9.33)   2.64    3.28  8.13   9.00   9.15   7.58
1941 13.9 (17.07)  10.98    6.44 10.59   9.76   9.95   7.97
1942 10.1  10.18    8.85    9.94 12.23  11.70  10.34   8.98
1943 10.2  18.86    5.32   10.22 10.83  10.93  10.39   9.07
1944 11.1  15.71    3.35    8.50 11.85  10.91   9.86   7.52
1945 12.0  33.99    3.92   10.98 11.21  10.83   8.59   5.83
1946 15.6 (24.73)   2.07   10.39  9.36   9.69   7.38   5.67
1947 11.5  (6.58)  11.04   13.95 12.66  10.72   9.01   6.87
1948 10.4   8.15   15.34   13.70 12.87  11.69   9.84   6.58
1949 10.2  18.95   13.91   16.35 13.54  11.55   8.37   6.49
1950 10.7  22.49   18.51   15.05 13.24   9.79   6.21   5.95
Last edited by JWR1945 on Sat Mar 27, 2004 9:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
JWR1945
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Post by JWR1945 »

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Year  PE10    1       5      10      15       20     25    30
1951  11.9  14.69  19.38   13.20    12.36    8.75   6.41  5.60
1952  12.5  12.96  16.94   13.48    10.61    8.51   6.05  4.61
1953  13.0   1.62  12.08   11.65    10.50    8.51   4.91  4.91
1954  12.0  44.96  18.85   13.36    10.77    7.03   5.07  5.33
1955  16.0  27.07  11.68   10.69     7.03    3.34   3.60  4.16
1956  18.3   3.42   7.33    9.00     5.42    3.39   3.05  3.97 
1957  16.7  (8.65) 10.12    7.57     5.83    3.49   2.31  4.71
1958  13.8  36.24  11.22    9.72     7.34    3.19   3.53  4.82
1959  18.0   6.24   8.13    6.95     3.36    1.88   2.82  4.13
1960  18.3   4.18   9.71    4.77     0.70    1.67   2.72  4.44
1961  18.5  17.56  10.70    4.48     2.11    2.00   3.31  4.08
1962  21.2  (4.00)  5.08    3.75     1.37    0.44   3.66  4.36
1963  19.3  18.32   8.24    5.45     0.64    1.69   3.58  4.63
1964  21.6  14.23   5.78    1.05    (0.12)   1.53   3.35  4.32
1965  23.3   8.98   0.06   (3.52)   (0.88)   1.04   3.42  3.80
1966  24.1  (9.42) (1.39)  (1.93)   (0.75)   1.54   2.81  4.43
1967  20.4  11.33   2.45   (0.43)   (1.06)   3.31   4.21  5.49
1968  21.5   5.48   2.74   (2.96)   (0.40)   2.45   3.92  5.90
1969  21.2 (13.49) (3.46)  (2.95)    0.15    2.75   4.04  6.60
1970  17.1   1.30  (6.98)  (1.34)    1.37    4.28   4.57  7.52
1971  16.5   9.66  (2.46)  (0.42)    2.53    3.88   5.63  7.17
1972  17.3  12.93  (3.23)  (2.76)    3.60    4.66   6.11  6.27
1973  18.7 (22.71) (8.34)  (1.93)    2.35    4.22   6.54    
1974  13.5 (28.15) (2.44)   2.01     4.91    6.00   8.73    
1975   8.9  28.39   4.63    5.82     8.32    7.67  10.68    
1976  11.2   5.39   1.66    5.12     6.09    7.76   9.21    
1977  11.4 (13.90) (2.29)   7.19     7.43    8.58   8.28    
1978   9.2   5.58   4.93    8.16     8.78    10.63       
1979   9.3   1.95   6.66    8.79     8.97    11.72       
1980   8.9  11.19   7.01   10.22     8.70    12.25

Notice that there have been several instances with negative overall real returns (annualized, with dividends reinvested) lasting 15 years. Notice that throughout most of the 1960s, the 20-year real return was less than 3% (annualized, with dividends reinvested).

Have fun.

John R.
Last edited by JWR1945 on Sat Mar 27, 2004 9:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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BenSolar
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Post by BenSolar »

These tables are great, John! Very interesting and useful to have them collected here like this. The relationship between PE-10 and long term returns is laid out very nicely indeed.

:D :great: :great:
"Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things only hoped for." - Epicurus
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