PART FIVE
Baseline: 100%-30%-0% with P/E10 thresholds of 11 and 24 produces 0 failures at a withdrawal rate of 5.2% and 4 failures at 5.3%. The TIPS interest rate is set to 2.00%.
JanSz-Chips Deluxe V2.0B TIPS
Starting point:
Both 9-12-21-24 and 9-13-21-04, produce these results at a withdrawal rate of 5.2%. Both have many failures at a 5.3% withdrawal Rate.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
40% 30% 20% 0
50% 30% 20% 0
50% 30% 30% 0
60% 30% 30% 0
To be examined at that time were:
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12 or 13, varies and 24.
Allocations: 100%-low-30%-High%-0%.
Examination of 9-12-varies-24 thresholds with 100%-50%-[30% or 40%]-varies-0% conditions suggested that one of the thresholds should be eliminated. In most circumstances, 100%-50%-30%-30%-0% was the best condition examined.
I now proceed to optimize three threshold and two adjustable stock allocations (for a total of four allocations). In what follows, the highest P/E10 threshold (at 30) is a dummy threshold because the allocation just below it is 0% and the allocation above it is 0% as well.
SURVEY FOURTEEN
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 24 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 11
50% 20% 0% 5
50% 30% 0% 0
50% 40% 0% 3
50% 50% 0% 6
50% 60% 0% 9
50% 70% 0% 12
50% 80% 0% 15
50% 90% 0% 16
50% 100% 0% 20
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 23 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 11
50% 20% 0% 8
50% 30% 0% 4
50% 40% 0% 5
50% 50% 0% 8
50% 60% 0% 10
50% 70% 0% 13
50% 80% 0% 16
50% 90% 0% 17
50% 100% 0% 20
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 22 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 11
50% 20% 0% 8
50% 30% 0% 4
50% 40% 0% 5
50% 50% 0% 8
50% 60% 0% 8
50% 70% 0% 12
50% 80% 0% 16
50% 90% 0% 17
50% 100% 0% 19
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 21 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 11
50% 20% 0% 7
50% 30% 0% 3
50% 40% 0% 3
50% 50% 0% 3
50% 60% 0% 3
50% 70% 0% 5
50% 80% 0% 11
50% 90% 0% 12
50% 100% 0% 16
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 20 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 13
50% 20% 0% 9
50% 30% 0% 7
50% 40% 0% 6
50% 50% 0% 6
50% 60% 0% 7
50% 70% 0% 10
50% 80% 0% 12
50% 90% 0% 13
50% 100% 0% 16
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 19 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 13
50% 20% 0% 10
50% 30% 0% 9
50% 40% 0% 9
50% 50% 0% 9
50% 60% 0% 10
50% 70% 0% 13
50% 80% 0% 15
50% 90% 0% 16
50% 100% 0% 19
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 18 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 12
50% 20% 0% 12
50% 30% 0% 8
50% 40% 0% 8
50% 50% 0% 7
50% 60% 0% 6
50% 70% 0% 6
50% 80% 0% 8
50% 90% 0% 9
50% 100% 0% 12
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 17 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 13
50% 20% 0% 13
50% 30% 0% 10
50% 40% 0% 9
50% 50% 0% 9
50% 60% 0% 9
50% 70% 0% 10
50% 80% 0% 15
50% 90% 0% 17
50% 100% 0% 18
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 16 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 13
50% 20% 0% 13
50% 30% 0% 11
50% 40% 0% 10
50% 50% 0% 9
50% 60% 0% 8
50% 70% 0% 9
50% 80% 0% 10
50% 90% 0% 11
50% 100% 0% 13
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 15 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 14
50% 20% 0% 13
50% 30% 0% 11
50% 40% 0% 11
50% 50% 0% 10
50% 60% 0% 10
50% 70% 0% 11
50% 80% 0% 15
50% 90% 0% 15
50% 100% 0% 15
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 14 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 14
50% 20% 0% 13
50% 30% 0% 11
50% 40% 0% 11
50% 50% 0% 10
50% 60% 0% 10
50% 70% 0% 11
50% 80% 0% 13
50% 90% 0% 15
50% 100% 0% 14
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 12, 13 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 13
50% 10% 0% 13
50% 20% 0% 12
50% 30% 0% 12
50% 40% 0% 11
50% 50% 0% 9
50% 60% 0% 9
50% 70% 0% 9
50% 80% 0% 9
50% 90% 0% 9
50% 100% 0% 9
SURVEY FIFTEEN
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 24 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 8
50% 20% 0% 5
50% 30% 0% 0
50% 40% 0% 2
50% 50% 0% 6
50% 60% 0% 9
50% 70% 0% 12
50% 80% 0% 16
50% 90% 0% 18
50% 100% 0% 20
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 23 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 8
50% 20% 0% 8
50% 30% 0% 4
50% 40% 0% 4
50% 50% 0% 8
50% 60% 0% 10
50% 70% 0% 13
50% 80% 0% 17
50% 90% 0% 19
50% 100% 0% 20
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 22 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 8
50% 20% 0% 8
50% 30% 0% 4
50% 40% 0% 4
50% 50% 0% 8
50% 60% 0% 8
50% 70% 0% 12
50% 80% 0% 17
50% 90% 0% 19
50% 100% 0% 19
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 21 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 8
50% 20% 0% 7
50% 30% 0% 3
50% 40% 0% 3
50% 50% 0% 3
50% 60% 0% 3
50% 70% 0% 5
50% 80% 0% 12
50% 90% 0% 14
50% 100% 0% 17
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 20 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 10
50% 20% 0% 9
50% 30% 0% 7
50% 40% 0% 6
50% 50% 0% 6
50% 60% 0% 7
50% 70% 0% 10
50% 80% 0% 13
50% 90% 0% 15
50% 100% 0% 17
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 19 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 10
50% 20% 0% 10
50% 30% 0% 9
50% 40% 0% 9
50% 50% 0% 9
50% 60% 0% 10
50% 70% 0% 13
50% 80% 0% 16
50% 90% 0% 18
50% 100% 0% 22
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 18 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 9
50% 20% 0% 9
50% 30% 0% 8
50% 40% 0% 8
50% 50% 0% 7
50% 60% 0% 6
50% 70% 0% 7
50% 80% 0% 9
50% 90% 0% 10
50% 100% 0% 15
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 17 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 9
50% 20% 0% 10
50% 30% 0% 10
50% 40% 0% 9
50% 50% 0% 9
50% 60% 0% 9
50% 70% 0% 12
50% 80% 0% 16
50% 90% 0% 17
50% 100% 0% 21
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 16 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 10
50% 20% 0% 10
50% 30% 0% 11
50% 40% 0% 10
50% 50% 0% 9
50% 60% 0% 8
50% 70% 0% 9
50% 80% 0% 10
50% 90% 0% 11
50% 100% 0% 14
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 15 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 10
50% 20% 0% 10
50% 30% 0% 11
50% 40% 0% 11
50% 50% 0% 10
50% 60% 0% 10
50% 70% 0% 11
50% 80% 0% 15
50% 90% 0% 15
50% 100% 0% 15
Withdrawal Rate = 5.2%.
Thresholds = 9, 13, 14 and 30.
Allocations: 100%-50%-varies-0%-0%.
Code: Select all
Low Threshold Medium High Failures
50% 0% 0% 9
50% 10% 0% 10
50% 20% 0% 10
50% 30% 0% 11
50% 40% 0% 11
50% 50% 0% 10
50% 60% 0% 10
50% 70% 0% 11
50% 80% 0% 13
50% 90% 0% 15
50% 100% 0% 14
REMARKS
The only allocation that produced zero failures was 100%-50%-30%-0%-0%. It did so when the thresholds were 9-12-24-30 and 9-13-24-30. [In this case the P/E10 threshold of 30 is meaningless since the allocation above it and the allocation just below are both 0%].
Have fun.
John R.