New HDBR Tables

Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

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JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

New HDBR Tables

Post by JWR1945 »

These were run on the JanSz-Chips Deluxe V1.0 modified version of the Retire Early Safe Withdrawal [Rate] Calculator, Version 1.61, 7 November 2002. It could have been run on any version, including the original.

The HDBR50 portfolio consisted of 50% stocks and 50% commercial paper. The HDBR80 portfolio consisted of 80% stocks and 20% commercial paper.

Both portfolios were re-balanced annually. The Historical Database Rates (as a percentage of the portfolio's initial balance) are shown under HDBR50 and HDBR80. All portfolios survived for 30 years at the withdrawal rates in the tables. At a withdrawal rate of 0.1% more than what is listed they would have failed. Withdrawal amounts were adjusted each year to match inflation. That is, the real dollar buying power remained constant. Inflation was measured by CPI-U. The expense ratio was 0.20%. The initial balance was set at $100000 to keep the effects of rounding and truncation errors to a minimum. All interest and dividends were reinvested. Other values were left at their default settings.

The values of P/E10 were taken from the calculator. They are identical to Professor Shiller's numbers internally, but they are rounded to a single decimal value for the table. The source of P/E10 values from 1871-1880 was not explained.

These values differ somewhat from the earlier results that I got from FIRECalc. That is due, in part, to slight differences in how withdrawal amounts are applied.

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Year  P/E10  HDBR50  HDBR80
1871   13.3   9.3   9.4
1872   14.5   9.3   9.3
1873   15.3   8.8   8.7
1874   13.9   8.7   8.8
1875   13.6   8.4   8.6
1876   13.3   8.7   9.0
1877   10.6   8.3   9.1
1878    9.7   7.9   9.0
1879   10.7   9.3  10.4
1880   15.3   7.5   7.7
1881   18.5   7.5   7.3
1882   15.7   7.6   7.5
1883   15.3   7.2   7.1
1884   14.4   6.8   6.9
1885   13.1   7.2   7.7
1886   16.7   6.6   6.7
1887   17.5   6.6   6.7
1888   15.4   6.5   6.7
1889   15.8   6.2   6.4
1890   17.2   6.2   6.4
1891   15.4   6.0   6.5
1892   19.0   6.1   6.3
1893   17.7   5.1   5.4
1894   15.7   5.4   6.2
1895   16.5   5.5   6.3
1896   16.6   5.3   6.1
1897   17.0   5.4   6.4
1898   19.2   5.1   5.9
1899   22.9   5.4   5.9
1900   18.7   5.3   5.8

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Year  P/E10  HDBR50  HDBR80
1901   21.0   5.0   5.3
1902   22.3   5.1   5.2
1903   20.3   4.7   4.8
1904   15.9   5.3   5.9
1905   18.5   4.7   4.9
1906   20.1   4.5   4.5
1907   17.2   4.4   4.5
1908   11.9   5.2   5.8
1909   14.8   5.0   5.2
1910   14.5   4.3   4.4
1911   14.0   4.4   4.6
1912   13.8   4.7   4.9
1913   13.1   4.6   4.9
1914   11.6   4.8   5.3
1915   10.4   5.2   5.9
1916   12.5   5.2   5.5
1917   11.0   6.1   6.4
1918    6.6   7.9   9.1
1919    6.1   8.9  10.0
1920    6.0   8.3   9.3

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Year  P/E10  HDBR50  HDBR80
1921    5.1   8.1   9.8
1922    6.3   8.0   9.9
1923    8.2   7.5   8.9
1924    8.1   7.6   9.2
1925    9.7   7.3   8.5
1926   11.3   6.6   7.5
1927   13.2   6.4   7.2
1928   18.8   5.5   5.8
1929   27.1   4.5   4.4
1930   22.3   4.4   4.5
1931   16.7   4.5   5.0
1932    9.3   5.1   6.9
1933    8.7   5.7   8.0
1934   13.0   4.8   6.2
1935   11.5   5.2   7.1
1936   17.1   4.3   5.4
1937   21.6   3.9   4.5
1938   13.5   4.6   6.0
1939   15.6   4.4   5.6
1940   16.4   4.5   5.8
1941   13.9   5.4   7.3
1942   10.1   6.2   9.0
1943   10.2   6.1   8.7
1944   11.1   5.9   8.1
1945   12.0   5.7   7.7
1946   15.6   5.9   7.4
1947   11.5   7.1   9.5
1948   10.4   7.4  10.2
1949   10.2   7.3  10.0
1950   10.7   7.6  10.3

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Year  P/E10  HDBR50  HDBR80
1951   11.9   7.1   9.2
1952   12.5   6.7   8.5
1953   13.0   6.5   8.2
1954   12.0   6.6   8.4
1955   16.0   5.6   6.6
1956   18.3   5.2   5.7
1957   16.7   5.3   5.9
1958   13.8   5.7   6.5
1959   18.0   4.9   5.2
1960   18.3   4.9   5.1
1961   18.5   4.8   5.1
1962   21.2   4.6   4.6
1963   19.3   4.8   4.9
1964   21.6   4.4   4.4
1965   23.3   4.2   4.0
1966   24.1   4.1   3.9
1967   20.4   4.4   4.4
1968   21.5   4.3   4.1
1969   21.2   4.3   4.1
1970   17.1   4.7   4.8
1971   16.5   4.8   4.8
1972   17.3   4.7   4.6
1973   18.7   4.7   4.6
1974   13.5   5.6   5.9
1975    8.9   6.7   7.8
1976   11.2   6.0   6.6
1977   11.4   6.2   6.6
1978    9.2   7.0   7.9
1979    9.3   7.3   8.2
1980    8.9   7.4   8.2
Have fun.

John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Here are the HDBR50 Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates (previously called Historical Database Rates) in a form easy to copy onto a spreadsheet. They are listed by years.

1871-1920

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9.3
9.3
8.8
8.7
8.4
8.7
8.3
7.9
9.3
7.5
7.5
7.6
7.2
6.8
7.2
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.2
6.2
6.0
6.1
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.1
5.4
5.3
5.0
5.1
4.7
5.3
4.7
4.5
4.4
5.2
5.0
4.3
4.4
4.7
4.6
4.8
5.2
5.2
6.1
7.9
8.9
8.3
1921-1980

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8.1
8.0
7.5
7.6
7.3
6.6
6.4
5.5
4.5
4.4
4.5
5.1
5.7
4.8
5.2
4.3
3.9
4.6
4.4
4.5
5.4
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.7
5.9
7.1
7.4
7.3
7.6
7.1
6.7
6.5
6.6
5.6
5.2
5.3
5.7
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.6
4.8
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
5.6
6.7
6.0
6.2
7.0
7.3
7.4
HDBR80 rates follow.

John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Here are the HDBR80 Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates (previously called Historical Database Rates) in a form easy to copy onto a spreadsheet. They are listed by years.

1871-1920

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9.4
9.3
8.7
8.8
8.6
9.0
9.1
9.0
10.4
7.7
7.3
7.5
7.1
6.9
7.7
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.3
5.4
6.2
6.3
6.1
6.4
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.3
5.2
4.8
5.9
4.9
4.5
4.5
5.8
5.2
4.4
4.6
4.9
4.9
5.3
5.9
5.5
6.4
9.1
10.0
9.3
1921-1980

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9.8
9.9
8.9
9.2
8.5
7.5
7.2
5.8
4.4
4.5
5.0
6.9
8.0
6.2
7.1
5.4
4.5
6.0
5.6
5.8
7.3
9.0
8.7
8.1
7.7
7.4
9.5
10.2
10.0
10.3
9.2
8.5
8.2
8.4
6.6
5.7
5.9
6.5
5.2
5.1
5.1
4.6
4.9
4.4
4.0
3.9
4.4
4.1
4.1
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.6
5.9
7.8
6.6
6.6
7.9
8.2
8.2
100E10/P percentages follow.

John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Here are the percentage earnings yield 100E10/P in a form easy to copy onto a spreadsheet. They are listed by years.

1871-1920

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7.52
6.90
6.54
7.19
7.35
7.52
9.43
10.31
9.35
6.54
5.41
6.37
6.54
6.94
7.63
5.99
5.71
6.49
6.33
5.81
6.49
5.26
5.65
6.37
6.06
6.02
5.88
5.21
4.37
5.35
4.76
4.48
4.93
6.29
5.41
4.98
5.81
8.40
6.76
6.90
7.14
7.25
7.63
8.62
9.62
8.00
9.09
15.15
16.39
16.67
1921-1980

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19.61
15.87
12.20
12.35
10.31
8.85
7.58
5.32
3.69
4.48
5.99
10.75
11.49
7.69
8.70
5.85
4.63
7.41
6.41
6.10
7.19
9.90
9.80
9.01
8.33
6.41
8.70
9.62
9.80
9.35
8.40
8.00
7.69
8.33
6.25
5.46
5.99
7.25
5.56
5.46
5.41
4.72
5.18
4.63
4.29
4.15
4.90
4.65
4.72
5.85
6.06
5.78
5.35
7.41
11.24
8.93
8.77
10.87
10.75
11.24
P/E10 listings follow.

John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida

Post by JWR1945 »

Here are the values of P/E10 that are found on the Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator, version 1.61, dated November 7, 2002 in a form that is easy to copy onto a spreadsheet. I do not know the source of these numbers for 1871-1880. The source for 1881-1980 is Professor Robert Shiller's database. They are the January values.

These values of P/E10 are listed by years.
1871-1920

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13.3
14.5
15.3
13.9
13.6
13.3
10.6
9.7
10.7
15.3
18.5
15.7
15.3
14.4
13.1
16.7
17.5
15.4
15.8
17.2
15.4
19.0
17.7
15.7
16.5
16.6
17.0
19.2
22.9
18.7
21.0
22.3
20.3
15.9
18.5
20.1
17.2
11.9
14.8
14.5
14.0
13.8
13.1
11.6
10.4
12.5
11.0
6.6
6.1
6.0
1921-1980

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5.1
6.3
8.2
8.1
9.7
11.3
13.2
18.8
27.1
22.3
16.7
9.3
8.7
13.0
11.5
17.1
21.6
13.5
15.6
16.4
13.9
10.1
10.2
11.1
12.0
15.6
11.5
10.4
10.2
10.7
11.9
12.5
13.0
12.0
16.0
18.3
16.7
13.8
18.0
18.3
18.5
21.2
19.3
21.6
23.3
24.1
20.4
21.5
21.2
17.1
16.5
17.3
18.7
13.5
8.9
11.2
11.4
9.2
9.3
8.9
Have fun.

John R.
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