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FMO
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2004 3:37 am    Post subject: Home Appreciation Rates Reply with quote

See how average existing-home prices have increased where you live and compare one-, three- and five-year appreciation rates for more than 300 metropolitan areas across the United States.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/P70715.asp



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MaiPenRai
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2004 6:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Egads: Phoenix AZ $210,161 12.4% 55.0% 80.8%

Appreciation is great but this makes me worry about a big popping sound someday in the future. The newspaper here says continued strong migration into the state (I mean legal, interstate migration Wink ) are helping us not be a bubble risk, but no way we can hold huge gains forever.


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TRyan
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2004 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm right behind you ...

Boston MA $321,108 5.8% 30.6% 65.9%

Certiainly not seeing wage increases any where near this trend. Just evicted a restaurant owner who lost his bussiness back in May and has been unable to find suitable employment. He reminded me (as he was packing the day after Christmas) that working for $200-300 per week just doesn't cut it any more.



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BenSolar
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 02, 2004 11:53 am    Post subject: Re: Home Appreciation Rates Reply with quote

FMO wrote:
See how average existing-home prices have increased where you live and compare one-, three- and five-year appreciation rates for more than 300 metropolitan areas across the United States.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/P70715.asp


Asheville NC $140,333 4.4% 18.0% 34.2%

Asheville's been pretty brisk, but nothing like Boston or Phoenix. I think Asheville's got room for continued growth. You can still find relatively affordable housing, but jobs are scarce and not high paying, so that will keep things in check. Some areas of the market here are a little frothy, but others aren't bad. I've seen an attractively priced and well located fixer-upper recently for under $80k - 1400 sq ft two story.



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MaiPenRai
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2004 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

When I've got a chance I'd like to dig into this a little, because using MSAs like "Phoenix" or "Boston" just doesn't give the granularity one needs.

Boston numbers are up, but from previous articles I've seen areas like Worcester (what do they call it wooster?) have been absolutely skyrocketing into orbit.

Same with Phoenix, areas in outlying cities like Chandler and Gilbert that are all built out are really smoking compared to other spots without much development.

I know it's on the web, I just need to find it. The local newspaper usually has a big article once a year that breaks it down by zipcode, that should have the 2003 numbers in it.


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MaiPenRai
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2004 5:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I think Asheville's got room for continued growth.

I believe one of the large scale migration trends is indeed to the SE and SW. Cities like Pittsburgh are actually shrinking (at least I think that's one of them) and although places like Atlanta are mentioned more often as destinatinos it's supposed to be a pretty wide-scale trend.


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BenSolar
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2004 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MaiPenRai wrote:
I believe one of the large scale migration trends is indeed to the SE and SW. Cities like Pittsburgh are actually shrinking (at least I think that's one of them) and although places like Atlanta are mentioned more often as destinatinos it's supposed to be a pretty wide-scale trend.


Atlanta has the jobs, as do the other big cities, but Asheville will continue to benefit from the migration. We enjoy a steady stream of people who have made their money in the big cities, but want the better climate and quality of life they can find in Asheville. Lots of small businesses here as these professionals come and have to go about making a living despite lack of a lot of big employers. I'm sure we'll have our slow spots and downturns as always, but I'm very bullish on the region in the long term.



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SiddFinch1
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2004 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Nassau NY $315,240 10.4% 40.2% 74.7%


I just bought my house a year ago. I refinanced over the summer and it appraised at 10% more than I had paid 6 months previously.

From what I hear from friends still looking in the area prices have been stablizing somewhat in the last few months.



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wanderer
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2004 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FMO linked to this at another board:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49857-2004Jan2.html

The logic detailed there (with one exception - we still believe the economy has a lot more stops and starts left in it) is why we continued to hold thru the interest rate bottom of 2002 (and near bottom of 2003). Our house price increased 20% in the last year. And it was 50% leveraged so you can make that a 40% return.

It seems like real estate in a portfolio is an emotional subject (on both sides). Maybe it's a matter of personality.



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salaryguru
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 03, 2004 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does anyone know what exactly "average existing home price" means?

I think this is a measurement of the average price of every home sold. So in a city that is building lots of larger, newer homes each year, the average existing home price is going up simply because the average home that is being sold is bigger and nicer with each passing year. The actual appreciation in value on a particular home may not be nearly so great as these numbers imply.



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wanderer
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2004 1:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SG -

I agree. They should have used 'median'. 'Average' is confusing.

IIRC, the data from the OFHEO (which I think is where this data came from) tracks resales of same dwelling. FMO will know offhand.



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FMO
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2004 2:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wanderer wrote:
SG -

I agree. They should have used 'median'. 'Average' is confusing.

IIRC, the data from the OFHEO (which I think is where this data came from) tracks resales of same dwelling. FMO will know offhand.


Yes, this is true. IMO this makes the OFHEO data the best available. One caveat: The OFHEO data is developed from houses which were financed using conforming loans later purchased by Freddie-Mac or Fannie-Mae. Homes that are financed at levels in excess of the conforming loan limits therefore do not find theeir way into the results. This could affect the data somewhat in the higher-priced markets. The detailed OFHEO methodolgy can be seen here:

http://www.ofheo.gov/Media/Archive/house/hpi_tech.pdf



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kathyet
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2004 7:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This just in on Las Vegas about our home appreciations at this time, right now it is turning into a sellers market and every new home being built is already sold.


Kathyet

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Feb-22-Sun-2004/business/23275806.html


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MaiPenRai
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2004 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That doesn't surprise me. Las Vegas is always on top of those "fastest growing cities" lists.

It's funny because everytime I drive there (from Phoenix) I pass more suburbs. They'll probably be building them with Hoover Dam views pretty soon.


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