New Year Projects 2004
Posted: Thu Jan 01, 2004 4:58 pm
Have a very Happy New Year.
There are lots of worthwhile tasks awaiting us.
All investigations into portfolio switching are guaranteed to be useful. They will all break new ground. Getting the calculator and making the necessary modifications are not difficult. In addition, I have posted the details on how to make additional, optional modifications to make data analysis easier.
Now that we have calculators that use a simplified form of JanSz's algorithm and the JanSz-Chips calculator, we have opened up an entirely new area of investigation for those individuals who are technically oriented. It has to do with the probability of the price component of Historical Database Rates as opposed to the combination of price and dividends. Today's market is out of the historical range both in terms of P/E10 and in terms of dividend yields. It is dangerous to rely on the historical record when it is stated in terms of price plus dividends. That is what historical sequence calculators currently use. An initial investigation has shown that there can be a penalty of 1% or so when you depend upon price appreciation alone. How should we react?
I still have my new approach in the background. It will still take several months of data intensive investigations to determine whether it will be useful. If it is, it may be a breakthrough. If not, I will still provide you with sufficient information so as to know what not to do.
I have just completed my initial review of Rob Bennett's final draft of Passion Savings. Those who have read his finished products (as opposed to his intermediate thoughts) are well aware of how powerful they can be. This is even better. He has turned what seems to be a dreary task, gathering wealth, into an exciting adventure. I had focused on the word Savings when I should have focused on Passion. I rate his book a couple of levels higher than your typical blockbuster. It really is that good. I have offered to buy a copy of the draft as-is for each of my daughters in addition to the published version when it comes out.
Have fun.
John R.
There are lots of worthwhile tasks awaiting us.
All investigations into portfolio switching are guaranteed to be useful. They will all break new ground. Getting the calculator and making the necessary modifications are not difficult. In addition, I have posted the details on how to make additional, optional modifications to make data analysis easier.
Now that we have calculators that use a simplified form of JanSz's algorithm and the JanSz-Chips calculator, we have opened up an entirely new area of investigation for those individuals who are technically oriented. It has to do with the probability of the price component of Historical Database Rates as opposed to the combination of price and dividends. Today's market is out of the historical range both in terms of P/E10 and in terms of dividend yields. It is dangerous to rely on the historical record when it is stated in terms of price plus dividends. That is what historical sequence calculators currently use. An initial investigation has shown that there can be a penalty of 1% or so when you depend upon price appreciation alone. How should we react?
I still have my new approach in the background. It will still take several months of data intensive investigations to determine whether it will be useful. If it is, it may be a breakthrough. If not, I will still provide you with sufficient information so as to know what not to do.
I have just completed my initial review of Rob Bennett's final draft of Passion Savings. Those who have read his finished products (as opposed to his intermediate thoughts) are well aware of how powerful they can be. This is even better. He has turned what seems to be a dreary task, gathering wealth, into an exciting adventure. I had focused on the word Savings when I should have focused on Passion. I rate his book a couple of levels higher than your typical blockbuster. It really is that good. I have offered to buy a copy of the draft as-is for each of my daughters in addition to the published version when it comes out.
Have fun.
John R.