Christmas Projects
Posted: Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:44 am
It is always a good idea to have a couple of projects in the background during the Holiday Season. There will always be lulls between major events and such projects can come in handy.
The first set of projects is to upgrade the Retire Early Safe Withdrawal (Rate) Calculator. The data analysis modifications are especially helpful. See these threads for details.
Modifications to Improve Data Summaries dated Monday, Dec 15, 2003 at 5:56 pm CST. http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1841
More Data Summary Modifications dated Saturday, Dec 20, 2003 at 9:14 pm CST.
http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1885
Another set of projects is to upgrade the Retire Early Safe Withdrawal (Rate) Calculator to include the originally intended dual threshold switching capability and also to include TIPS and ibonds with switching as well as commercial paper.
See this post for details: http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic ... 176#p14176
It is on the Request for assistance (with Excel) thread started on Saturday, Sep 06, 2003 at 11:15 am Central Time. http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1358
There is a wealth of worthwhile investigations to be made with switching. This is new ground, lightly covered up until now. Everything along these lines is useful and important.
Mike has reported the single, most important finding: that there is no historically based justification for owning any stocks when P/E10 is above 20. But there is much more to discover. We need to look at sensitivities. We need to avoid being critically dependent upon specifics from the past. We need to be sure that our decisions will be close to being right, looking into the future, and that they will not be horribly wrong if we have made a mistake.
I am leaving everything about switching on the table for the next few months. You will not be competing against me.
I have been investigating a new approach. It may turn out spectacularly well. Or, just as likely, it could end up being a complete dud. It requires a tremendous amount of tedious detail. You have benefited from my efforts already. I have written several posts showing how to make number crunching (or data analysis) less difficult.
My new approach is not necessarily any more important than the switching investigations that you can do right now, using the tools that you have available. If I had to choose just one, I would choose to investigate switching. We know for a fact that it works. We know for a fact that such investigations will be useful. Fortunately, I do not have to choose. I can put off my own investigations into switching for now. I do not have to abandon them forever.
In the meantime, y'all have a great opportunity.
Merry Christmas. Have fun.
John R.
The first set of projects is to upgrade the Retire Early Safe Withdrawal (Rate) Calculator. The data analysis modifications are especially helpful. See these threads for details.
Modifications to Improve Data Summaries dated Monday, Dec 15, 2003 at 5:56 pm CST. http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1841
More Data Summary Modifications dated Saturday, Dec 20, 2003 at 9:14 pm CST.
http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1885
Another set of projects is to upgrade the Retire Early Safe Withdrawal (Rate) Calculator to include the originally intended dual threshold switching capability and also to include TIPS and ibonds with switching as well as commercial paper.
See this post for details: http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic ... 176#p14176
It is on the Request for assistance (with Excel) thread started on Saturday, Sep 06, 2003 at 11:15 am Central Time. http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1358
There is a wealth of worthwhile investigations to be made with switching. This is new ground, lightly covered up until now. Everything along these lines is useful and important.
Mike has reported the single, most important finding: that there is no historically based justification for owning any stocks when P/E10 is above 20. But there is much more to discover. We need to look at sensitivities. We need to avoid being critically dependent upon specifics from the past. We need to be sure that our decisions will be close to being right, looking into the future, and that they will not be horribly wrong if we have made a mistake.
I am leaving everything about switching on the table for the next few months. You will not be competing against me.
I have been investigating a new approach. It may turn out spectacularly well. Or, just as likely, it could end up being a complete dud. It requires a tremendous amount of tedious detail. You have benefited from my efforts already. I have written several posts showing how to make number crunching (or data analysis) less difficult.
My new approach is not necessarily any more important than the switching investigations that you can do right now, using the tools that you have available. If I had to choose just one, I would choose to investigate switching. We know for a fact that it works. We know for a fact that such investigations will be useful. Fortunately, I do not have to choose. I can put off my own investigations into switching for now. I do not have to abandon them forever.
In the meantime, y'all have a great opportunity.
Merry Christmas. Have fun.
John R.