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ElSupremo
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 1:03 pm    Post subject: So there was this post on another board... Reply with quote

Greetings NFBers Smile

I'm compelled to at least say something in response to a post about me on another board that has been referenced here in another thread. All I can say is I've never seen such a pile of confused and manipulated information in all my born days! :shock:And the ONLY part of that post that is accurate (In regard to this board or myself.) is that I truly did not want to ban the poster in question. Just like I would not want to ban any other poster here.

So that's all I have to say about that. Rolling Eyes



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raddr
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 1:33 pm    Post subject: Re: So there was this post on another board... Reply with quote

ElSupremo wrote:
Greetings NFBers Smile

I'm compelled to at least say something in response to a post about me on another board that has been referenced here in another thread. All I can say is I've never seen such a pile of confused and manipulated information in all my born days! :shock:And the ONLY part of that post that is accurate (In regard to this board or myself.) is that I truly did not want to ban the poster in question. Just like I would not want to ban any other poster here.

So that's all I have to say about that. Rolling Eyes


ES,

You showed great restraint. I defy anyone to tell me that it isn't way more pleasant here with hocus gone. You did the right thing, my friend. Hocus needs help before it is too late, IMHO.


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ChocoKitty
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 2:10 pm    Post subject: Re: So there was this post on another board... Reply with quote

ElSupremo wrote:
Greetings NFBers Smile

I'm compelled to at least say something in response to a post about me on another board that has been referenced here in another thread. All I can say is I've never seen such a pile of confused and manipulated information in all my born days! :shock:And the ONLY part of that post that is accurate (In regard to this board or myself.) is that I truly did not want to ban the poster in question. Just like I would not want to ban any other poster here.

So that's all I have to say about that. Rolling Eyes


Welcome to hocus-world, ES. Some of us have seen this for many, many, many (many, many.....) months. I just find it amusing when a new person doubts that his word-twisting, confusion and misrepresentations could be that bad.

Yeah, they were THAT bad. And I consider myself a pretty objective, laid-back person. *shrug*


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raddr
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 2:21 pm    Post subject: Re: So there was this post on another board... Reply with quote

ChocoKitty wrote:

Some of us have seen this for many, many, many (many, many.....) months. I just find it amusing when a new person doubts that he could be that bad.

Yeah, he could be THAT bad. *shrug*


Hi ChocoKitty,

The "new person" said he was here to learn about the banning and "not to stir anything up" but he has insulted ES and the rest of us here on the "groupthink" board and, in typical fashion, has pronounced the banning a "big mistake" when he clearly has zero knowledge about what went on. Rolling Eyes Maybe he'll go back to his new board now where he can discuss the finer points of SWR's with YKW. LOL! Laughing


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ElSupremo
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings ChocoKitty Smile
Quote:
And I consider myself a pretty objective, laid-back person.

As do I. At least I thought I was. Confused Ahh wait, yea, I still am! Wink



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ElSupremo
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings raddr Smile

If you want to call an overwhelming majority decision "group think" then I guess it is. This was all more about disruption than anything else. There comes a point when hard decisions must be made for the good of the whole vs. the individual. That applies to large corporations or for smaller concerns such as NFB. In the final analysis you do what is best for company, or the site etc.

It's not easy being a fearless leader. Wink



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raddr
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ElSupremo wrote:
Greetings raddr Smile

If you want to call an overwhelming majority decision "group think" then I guess it is. This was all more about disruption than anything else. There comes a point when hard decisions must be made for the good of the whole vs. the individual. That applies to large corporations or for smaller concerns such as NFB. In the final analysis you do what is best for company, or the site etc.

It's not easy being a fearless leader. Wink


ES,

You handled it wonderfully. I do resent it when an outsider comes in and pronounces your decision a "big mistake" and then accuses us of "groupthink".


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ataloss
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 3:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I saw a small fraction of the ykw events at TMF, I wondered why people didn't listen politely and dispute his "insights" but I didn't realized that this had been done a dozen times in the past with no apparent understanding on the part of ykw



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ChocoKitty
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ElSupremo wrote:


If you want to call an overwhelming majority decision "group think" then I guess it is.


Hardly. That's like saying it's group-think when an overwhelming majority finds pissing in public unacceptable. Sometimes fact is fact -- there are some behaviors that are just disruptive by any objective measure.

But some things just have to be experienced to be believed. Getting kicked out for disruption at one board, OK, I can accept it as being a fluke. Two boards? And the complaints are the same, just by different people? Well, at that point, if you're encountering the same problem over and over, the common element is YOU (generic you), so maybe the problem *isn't* everyone else.

But that takes self-examination, and I don't think hocus is ready for that.

You handled that whole mess gracefully, ES. Nice work.


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ataloss
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
You handled that whole mess gracefully, ES. Nice work.


Definitely. I think ES and TMF management prefer to let the matter rest, in contrast to ykw who wants the world to know he was banned.



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raddr
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ChocoKitty wrote:
ElSupremo wrote:


If you want to call an overwhelming majority decision "group think" then I guess it is.


Hardly. That's like saying it's group-think when an overwhelming majority finds pissing in public unacceptable. Sometimes fact is fact -- there are some behaviors that are just disruptive by any objective measure.

But some things just have to be experienced to be believed. Getting kicked out for disruption at one board, OK, I can accept it as being a fluke. Two boards? And the complaints are the same, just by different people? Well, at that point, if you're encountering the same problem over and over, the common element is YOU (generic you), so maybe the problem *isn't* everyone else.

But that takes self-examination, and I don't think hocus is ready for that.

You handled that whole mess gracefully, ES. Nice work.


Well said!


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datasnooper
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I saw a small fraction of the ykw events at TMF, I wondered why people didn't listen politely and dispute his "insights" but I didn't realized that this had been done a dozen times in the past with no apparent understanding on the part of ykw

I and others (and you ataloss) tried to point out countless times that the Foolish Four was a piece of snit. People resorted to all sorts of nasty stuff to no apparent understanding for us. It was certainly more than a dozen times. Fortunately this coincided with a string of lean years for the strategy - I'm convinced that if it was successful by chance the groupthink would have resulted in us (well not you) being driven off the site and banned for life. I don't regret any of this (except that I bothered in the first place), not even if I was all misguided. The climate changed from "How do I find the current picks" to "let's try to understand the strategy" which was very useful. Similarly I credit hocus for casting well deserved doubt on intercest's work. Invaluable and worth being repeated ad libitum. Ironically, I have similar doubts regarding hocus' proposed strategy but he's the underdog. Intercest had (has?) an army of illinformed supporters that drove hocus off the Fool to great loss for the site. End of intelligent debate.

Datasnooper.


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KenM
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ES has put in all the time,effort and money to set up and run nfb - and he administers it in a very unassuming manner - if it was me I'd not be able to resist my autocratic streak taking over Twisted Evil

So, thanks, ES for giving all of us the opportunity to exchange information, give opinions, think aloud, debate, argue, banter, fight in a civilised, friendly environment. It ain't easy being the fearless leader and, even though I might not always agree, I fully support whatever decisions you make - so long as I'm allowed to mention the words "market timing" now and again Wink



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peteyperson
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 7:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi datasnooper,

You are talking way past tense. Back in the day, hocus was indeed a good poster at the Fool.

Since that time however he has posted many argumentative threads and particularly here, highjacked other threads on FIRE subjects in order to restart old debates. The debates would be about people with lengthly intercst said this, ataloss said that, hocus said this, intercst said that. It grew tiresome quickly despite the patience of many here. Even after being given his own board to administer he would highjack threads I started on FIRE subjects and effectively close them by a barrage of 2 page texts, not a word relating to the topic. He chose later to invite a welcome professional investor to the forum but insisted on having in at his own forum despite most who refused to join in simply because hocus had become so disagreeable. He would speak of community but his actions suggested otherwise on several occasions.

So while it is unfortunate to see anyone leave, his behaviour had become so erratic & illogical that it was stopping people have reasonable discussions (which was after all the purpose of the new board). Many moved here to get away from the one sided one solution view put forth by intercst, the political posts where FIRE posts were hard to locate and
the daily battles with hocus & others. Time is just too precious.

I like Rob and had spoken to him many times over e-mail. It just got to the point where, like a teenager, most things were disagreements and a reasoned discussion becomes virtually impossible. I don't think ES had much choice in the end. I was just surprised it took as long as it did. Hocus had me almost pulling my hair out in frustration and made me very angry on several occasions. And it takes quite a bit to that!

Petey
datasnooper wrote:
I saw a small fraction of the ykw events at TMF, I wondered why people didn't listen politely and dispute his "insights" but I didn't realized that this had been done a dozen times in the past with no apparent understanding on the part of ykw

I and others (and you ataloss) tried to point out countless times that the Foolish Four was a piece of snit. People resorted to all sorts of nasty stuff to no apparent understanding for us. It was certainly more than a dozen times. Fortunately this coincided with a string of lean years for the strategy - I'm convinced that if it was successful by chance the groupthink would have resulted in us (well not you) being driven off the site and banned for life. I don't regret any of this (except that I bothered in the first place), not even if I was all misguided. The climate changed from "How do I find the current picks" to "let's try to understand the strategy" which was very useful. Similarly I credit hocus for casting well deserved doubt on intercest's work. Invaluable and worth being repeated ad libitum. Ironically, I have similar doubts regarding hocus' proposed strategy but he's the underdog. Intercest had (has?) an army of illinformed supporters that drove hocus off the Fool to great loss for the site. End of intelligent debate.

Datasnooper.


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wanderer
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2003 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well said, petey.

I was a (the?) person who solicited hocus posting here. He wore out his welcome even with me.

I wasn't for banning, but I'm not clear how our community is poorer for his absence given his recent posting practices. What was I getting from his presence recently? If I sat down and attached some $ value to what I have gotten from other posters here and from hocus, it would be 'no contest'.

Besides, internet 'banning' is not like shunning or throwing someone outside the gates of a medieval town to starve or be eaten by wolves. There's plenty of room on the internet for all. Any fantastic insights he might have will make their way here, I'm sure.



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raddr
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2003 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wanderer wrote:
Well said, petey.

I was a (the?) person who solicited hocus posting here. He wore out his welcome even with me.

I wasn't for banning, but I'm not clear how our community is poorer for his absence given his recent posting practices. What was I getting from his presence recently? If I sat down and attached some $ value to what I have gotten from other posters here and from hocus, it would be 'no contest'.

Besides, internet 'banning' is not like shunning or throwing someone outside the gates of a medieval town to starve or be eaten by wolves. There's plenty of room on the internet for all. Any fantastic insights he might have will make their way here, I'm sure.


I wouldn't hold your breath. It is clear that hocus had no great insights even though he was convinced that he did. It's hard (and dangerous) to diagnose someone over the internet but he clearly has delusions of grandeur and persecution as well as a developing sense of paranoia. These are serious warning signs of mental illness, probably a borderline psychosis. He really needs to find professional help ASAP. I'm not kidding about this.




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WiseNLucky
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2003 4:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Datasnooper:
Quote:
Similarly I credit hocus for casting well deserved doubt on intercest's work. Invaluable and worth being repeated ad libitum.


What you are not understanding here is that the concepts hocus espoused were mostly agreed with here. It wasn't his concepts or ideas that were a problem, it was his insistance that people were after him that was a problem. And then, finally, his self fulfilling prophecy fulfilled itself.

I have a cousin who is clinically paranoid. I am not a doctor, but hocus displays very similar behavior. I feel very sorry for the man and hope he gets some professional help soon.

Take some time and read some of the threads he hijacked. You don't need any of the deleted threads to get a sense of the man. THEN come back and offer comment on whether ES did the right thing.



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NeuroFool
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2003 5:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What you are not understanding here is that the concepts hocus espoused were mostly agreed with here.

Exactly! That's what I find the most bizarre. I first "met" hocus over here on NFB (although I was vaguely familiar with some issues at TMF). I am no fan of the 4% SWR religion. 99% of us share the same ideas as hocus, i.e. that the REHP study (or whatever it is called or based on) is not rigid enough to be a "rule" and that there are times, such as now, that indicate the future WILL be worse than the past.

I started a thread down below on the SWR research page attempting to find out where hocus' ideas split from others. It was going rather well, I though, and hocus sounded entirely reasonable and responded to my questions in a very informative way. He didn't say anything that seemed it could be controversial, especially HERE. But after the "banning" I read some of his other posts more closely, and he seemed like he was contradicting himself in several places. One example is that he kept saying that the SWR was some mathematical certainty, ONE number that could somehow be calculated exactly, given the right inputs. Well, sure, but those inputs would be just as uncertain as anything else I guess. But when asked HOW we could figure out if we had all the right inputs, he said that it was not for us to know, or he couldn't reveal it now, or something like that. That kind of think rubbed people the wrong way it seemed. In my skimming of past posts, I got the impression that when hocus was presented with a challenging, legit question, he just assumed the question was an attempt to undermine his research. Even when that question came from someone like raddr, whose research is what helped convince ME that the REHP stuff is likely to get you into trouble. You would think hocus and raddr would be allies. But although hocus seemed to want "healthy debate", I read in several places where every critisism, even friendly devil's advocate type stuff, seemed to cause him to go on for multiple paragraphs about intercst and the "great debate". For someone like me who didn't know who intercst was, it was very strange. I wasn't interested in the "great debate" I was interested in having hocus help me understand his thoughts. But his continued references to TMF and REHP went far beyond what was necessary to explain his ideas, such that his ideas never GOT explained, and questions posed to him never got answers, at least in my opinion.

I have no dog in this fight. I feel like I came across a street scuffle and simply am curious as to what started it. But I've read many of hocus posts now, and some good ones of JWRs, but I STILL don't feel like I understand many many of hocus insistant comments about "calculating a number" for SWR. In fact, I'm not even sure if that's what hocus intends to DO or not.

As far as I know, all hocus wants to say is that excessively high valuations, like we may have now, render the 4% number dangerously high, and that maybe a if we had a model that took valuations into account we would be able to predict a SWR even if we had a time where the present was was worse than the past. This hardly seems controversial to people here, does it? But coming up with such a model, especially one where he claims will give an SWR number with certainty, is certainly not an easy task, and one subject to near infinite variables.

Suppose hocus had said (and I hope I'm not exposing my ignorance about ecomomics!), "I believe we can get a much better estimate of SWR if we use the gordon equation on the retirement start date to predict future returns...I'm currently working this out and backtesting it". Hey, this would be great. We could all pitch in to help (well, those who are good at that kind of thing). But I can't find any real details, provided by hocus, as to any kind of real-world solution to determining SWR, other than saying that "valuations matter". On this board, it seems people agree with that. On TMF, they think it's built into the past data and so all bases are covered.

Anyway, I'm rambling at this point. In summary, I still think it's entirely strange what happened, because it seems hocus and other posters here at NFB are in much more agreement than disagreement. But at risk of sounding biased, I will admit that I had a terribly difficult time in deciphering some of hocus' posts, and in attempting to find an answer within certain posts to questions posed to him. For a long while I assumed I didn't have a firm enough grasp on the issues, but now I'm not so sure. But I got very frustrated after reading through post after post (and many times I felt like I was the only one reading EVERY WORD) and feeling like I hadn't gotten any closer to understanding what hocus was trying to say. It got to the point where I almost wished someone would say "try to answer me WITHOUT using the words INTERCST or GREAT DEBATE".

If anyone has read this far in MY post, I'm impressed.

Good day! Very Happy




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ElSupremo
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2003 6:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings Ken Smile
Quote:
I fully support whatever decisions you make - so long as I'm allowed to mention the words "market timing" now and again

Oh alright go ahead. Wink Seriously, I am never critical of those who make major investment mistakes. Laughing After all it's not my money. And no one path is right for everyone. Cool



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ElSupremo
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 26, 2003 6:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings NeuroFool Smile
Quote:
If anyone has read this far in MY post, I'm impressed.

Then be impressed. Wink



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