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karma
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Joined: 31 Jul 2003
Posts: 65

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:16 am    Post subject: New intercst article Reply with quote

Unclemick was hoping for some conversation about intercst's latest article on his Retire Early Home Page. But since the first reference to this article is on hocus's SWR board, many who might want to comment, won't, because there is no sense in working up a response only to have it deleted because it doesn't agree with the the SWR honchos. I certainly won't.

intercst has examined the Monte Carlo and the actuarial methods for determining spending rates. He references gummy and the Society of Actuaries - I think they are probably both legit. Rather that offer an opinion, I'll let you all read it first.
http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/twoperc.html

I will say that if we all had to get our withdrawal rates down to 2%, we'd be working until we're 90 - and that's no fun.

karma


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ElSupremo
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Joined: 21 Nov 2002
Posts: 343
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings Karma Smile
Quote:
I will say that if we all had to get our withdrawal rates down to 2%, we'd be working until we're 90 - and that's no fun.

Still alive eh? Razz Thanks for the link! My projected SWR is around 3% right now and I'm hoping to get it down to 2% using RE. Of course, I could be dead by then. Laughing



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hocus2004
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Joined: 10 Jun 2004
Posts: 752

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 8:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"many who might want to comment, won't, because there is no sense in working up a response only to have it deleted because it doesn't agree with the the SWR honchos. I certainly won't. "

It is of course fine if people would prefer to comment on the intercst article here rather than on the thread I started on it at the SWR Research Group board. In fairness to the SWR board community (and, in particular, me!), I need to point out here that in the entire time in which I have served as moderator of that board, I have only had to delete one post.

Those who come to the SWR board with an intent to engage in reasoned discussion will be warmly welcomed into the community. I will of course do what I can to protect the community from any who pay us a visit with some other agenda in mind.


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karma
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Joined: 31 Jul 2003
Posts: 65

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 8:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
My projected SWR is around 3% right now


Wow! If you're ready, I say pull the plug. I retired in 1998, was stupid enough to buy some stocks at the height of 2000 (though some have come back and ahead very nicely) and I still live to tell the tale. I have taken out between 3 and 4% every year, and my asset base is still pretty much what it was - meaning it hasn't grown and it hasn't decreased.

I have a lot of slack in my budget, so I can easily do the gummy thing if things start looking bleak.

I am just not willing to torture myself working longer just to nudge some theoretical SWR down a tenth of a percent. And remember - SWR is supposed to represent the worst over a period of time. If you can stand a little risk (and it's there whether you can stand it or not), retiring at somthing less than 5% will mostly likely be OK. Not all the fancy number-crunching in the world can guarantee anything else.

karma - I've finished my Christmas shooping which is why you see me.


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ElSupremo
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Joined: 21 Nov 2002
Posts: 343
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2004 8:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings Karma Smile
Quote:
Wow! If you're ready, I say pull the plug.

I'm not quite ready yet. I still have a few more years to go. The SWR is not my only concern. I have to tie up a few thousand lose ends as well. Rolling Eyes



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