An Alternative Presentation of Data

Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates

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JWR1945
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An Alternative Presentation of Data

Post by JWR1945 » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:49 pm

In my A Second Survey using Minimum Balances post I used a compact method of presenting data. This shows an alternative method.

In all of the conditions that follow, the initial balance was $100000. The allocation was 50% stocks and 50% commercial paper. Investment expenses were set at 0.20%. An amount was withdrawn annually that was equal to 2% of the initial balance (plus inflation as measured by the CPI). A varying percentage of dividends were withdrawn. The time frame was 30 years. Portfolios were rebalanced annually.

I limited the years for starting retirements to 1921-1970 because of the problem caused by dummy data after 2002. [In the dummy data, stock prices and dividend amounts both decline 20% per year.]

With 100% Reinvested Dividends:

The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with no failures was $59400.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with five failures was $69400.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with ten failures was $75600.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with fifteen failures was $81000.

The TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN was always close to $2000 because no dividends were withdrawn and the expenses were only 0.20%.

Similarly, the DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN were always zero.

With 75% Reinvested Dividends:

The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with no failures was $54200.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with five failures was $64600.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with ten failures was $70100.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with fifteen failures was $72500.

The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with no failures was $2450.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with five failures was $2490.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with ten failures was $2540.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with fifteen failures was $2570.

The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with no failures was $260.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with five failures was $310.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with ten failures was $350.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with fifteen failures was $360.

With 50% Reinvested Dividends:

The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with no failures was $48900.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with five failures was $59600.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with ten failures was $63800.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with fifteen failures was $67200.

The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with no failures was $2600.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with five failures was $2750.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with ten failures was $2800.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with fifteen failures was $2840.

The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with no failures was $440.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with five failures was $560.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with ten failures was $600.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with fifteen failures was $670.

With 25% Reinvested Dividends:

The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with no failures was $44100.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with five failures was $54500.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with ten failures was $57000.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with fifteen failures was $61400.

The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with no failures was $2670.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with five failures was $2830.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with ten failures was $2910.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with fifteen failures was $3000.

The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with no failures was $550.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with five failures was $650.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with ten failures was $760.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with fifteen failures was $840.

With 0% Reinvested Dividends:

The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with no failures was $37200.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with five failures was $47700.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with ten failures was $51300.
The maximum PORTFOLIO BALANCE with fifteen failures was $54600.

The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with no failures was $2660.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with five failures was $2810.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with ten failures was $2960.
The maximum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN with fifteen failures was $3050.

The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with no failures was $580.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with five failures was $660.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with ten failures was $830.
The maximum DIVIDENDS WITHDRAWN with fifteen failures was $910.

Comments

This method presents much more information. Whether it is to be preferred depends upon what one is after.

I suspect that people will want to maintain both a minimum PORTFOLIO BALANCE and a minimum TOTAL AMOUNT WITHDRAWN. I suspect that people will want to be assured that there are no hidden sensitivities so that small errors are never magnified into causing big effects.

There is much more data available for analysis. However, generating this kind of data summary does not take much time. It helps with the preliminary screening.

My intention is not to overwhelm you with numbers. It is to stir up your imagination. It is to encourage you to get interested and to ask good questions.

Have fun.

John R.

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