Research on Safe Withdrawal Rates
Moderator: hocus2004
JWR1945
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Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:01 am
Ordered Tables (PE10, q, HDBR)
I am posting these tables as a convenient reference. It is a list of start years ordered by P/E10. I have included the value of P/E10, Tobin's q and the Historical Database Rates along with numbers that indicates their relative orders.
Code: Select all
Year PE10 PE10 Order Tobin's q q Order HDBR(80%) HDBR Order
1921 5.1 1 0.3469 2 11.6% 1
1922 6.2 2 0.4003 15 10.2% 5
1924 8.0 3 0.4582 23 9.4% 8
1923 8.1 4 0.3988 14 9.0% 13
1933* 8.7 5 0.6097 36 8.4% 19
1980 8.8 6 0.4275 17 10.4% 4
1975 8.9 7 0.4472 21 8.2% 21
1978 9.2 8 0.3634 6 9.2% 11
1979 9.2 9 0.3755 9 9.6% 7
1932* 9.3 10 0.4303 18 8.0% 23
1925 9.6 11 0.56357 31 8.4% 20
1942* 10.1 12 0.3732 8 9.0% 14
1943 10.1 13 0.4354 19 9.2% 12
1949 10.2 14 0.3566 4 11.0% 2
1948 10.4 15 0.3352 1 10.8% 3
1950 10.7 16 0.3966 12 10.2% 6
1944 11.0 17 0.4764 24 8.6% 17
1976 11.1 18 0.4925 26 7.2% 27
1926 11.3 19 0.5847 35 7.6% 24
1935 11.4 20 0.7816 47 7.6% 25
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Have fun.
John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:05 am
I am posting these tables as a convenient reference. It is a list of start years ordered by P/E10. I have included the value of P/E10, Tobin's q and the Historical Database Rates along with numbers that indicates their relative orders.
Code: Select all
Year PE10 PE10 Order Tobin's q q Order HDBR(80%) HDBR Order
1947 11.4 21 0.3662 7 9.4% 9
1977 11.4 22 0.3925 11 7.4% 26
1951 11.8 23 0.4216 16 9.4% 10
1945 11.9 24 0.5470 29 8.2% 22
1954 12.0 25 0.4957 27 9.0% 15
1952 12.5 26 0.3987 13 9.0% 16
1934 13.0 27 0.5717 32 6.2% 35
1953 13.0 28 0.3777 10 8.6% 18
1927 13.1 29 0.7398 44 7.2% 28
1938* 13.5 30 0.6572 40 6.6% 34
1974 13.5 31 0.3618 5 5.8% 39
1958 13.7 32 0.6466 39 7.0% 29
1941* 13.9 33 0.3538 3 7.0% 30
1939 15.5 34 0.6322 37 6.0% 36
1946 15.6 35 0.4406 20 6.8% 31
1955 15.9 36 0.5752 33 6.8% 32
1940* 16.3 37 0.4905 25 6.0% 37
1971 16.4 38 0.8067 49 6.8% 33
1931* 16.7 39 0.4507 22 5.6% 42
1957 16.7 40 0.5004 28 6.0% 38
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Have fun.
John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Sat Aug 23, 2003 8:08 am
I am posting these tables as a convenient reference. It is a list of start years ordered by P/E10. I have included the value of P/E10, Tobin's q and the Historical Database Rates along with numbers that indicates their relative orders.
Code: Select all
Year PE10 PE10 Order Tobin's q q Order HDBR(80%) HDBR Order
1936 17.0 41 0.9791 58 5.4% 43
1970 17.0 42 0.7480 45 4.8% 48
1972 17.2 43 0.9228 54 4.8% 49
1959 17.9 44 0.6963 42 5.4% 44
1956 18.2 45 0.5755 34 5.8% 40
1960 18.3 46 0.6956 41 5.2% 45
1961 18.4 47 0.8095 50 5.2% 46
1973 18.7 48 0.6450 38 4.6% 52
1928 18.8 49 0.9729 56 5.8% 41
1963 19.2 50 0.8109 52 5.0% 47
1967 20.4 51 0.9647 55 4.4% 55
1962 21.1 52 0.7608 46 4.8% 50
1969 21.1 53 0.8109 51 4.2% 56
1968 21.6 54 1.0556 59 4.2% 57
1937* 21.6 55 0.56354 30 4.6% 53
1964 21.6 56 0.9082 53 4.6% 54
1930 22.3 57 0.7294 43 4.8% 51
1965 23.2 58 0.9743 57 4.2% 58
1966 24.0 59 0.7965 48 4.0% 60
1929 27.0 60 1.3521 60 4.2% 59
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Have fun.
John R.
hocus
Moderator
Posts: 435 Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2002 12:56 am
Post
by hocus » Sat Aug 23, 2003 10:46 am
I am posting these tables as a convenient reference.
JWR1945:
You are quickly becoming one of my favorite posters on this board.
(that's a joke.)
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 6:54 am
The Orders of Different Indicators
Differences of Orders
Table 1
The letter "O" stands for the "relative order."
"P" stands for PE10.
"HDBR80" is the Historical Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Code: Select all
Year PE10 O(P) O(q) O(P*q) O(HDBR) O(q)-O(P) O(P*q)-O(P) HDBR80
1921 5.1 1 2 1 1 1 0 11.6%
1922 6.2 2 15 2 5 13 0 10.2%
1924 8.0 3 23 8 8 20 5 9.4%
1923 8.1 4 14 3 13 10 -1 9.0%
1933* 8.7 5 36 23 19 31 18 8.4%
1980 8.8 6 17 9 4 11 3 10.4%
1975 8.9 7 21 11 21 14 4 8.2%
1978 9.2 8 6 4 11 -2 -4 9.2%
1979 9.2 9 9 5 7 0 -4 9.6%
1932* 9.3 10 18 12 23 8 4 8.0%
1925 9.6 11 31 25 20 20 14 8.4%
1942* 10.1 12 8 10 14 -4 -2 9.0%
1943 10.1 13 19 15 12 6 2 9.2%
1949 10.2 14 4 7 2 -10 -7 11.0%
1948 10.4 15 1 6 3 -14 -5 10.8%
1950 10.7 16 12 14 6 -4 -2 10.2%
1944 11.0 17 24 22 17 7 5 8.6%
1976 11.1 18 26 26 27 8 8 7.2%
1926 11.3 19 35 29 24 16 10 7.6%
1935 11.4 20 47 36 25 27 16 7.6%
Have fun.
John R.
Last edited by
JWR1945 on Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:04 am
Differences of Orders
Table 2
The letter "O" stands for the "relative order."
"P" stands for PE10.
"HDBR80" is the Historical Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Code: Select all
Year PE10 O(P) O(q) O(P*q) O(HDBR) O(q)-O(P) O(P*q)-O(P) HDBR80
1947 11.4 21 7 13 9 -14 -8 9.4%
1977 11.4 22 11 16 26 -11 -6 7.4%
1951 11.8 23 16 20 10 -7 -3 9.4%
1945 11.9 24 29 28 22 5 4 8.2%
1954 12.0 25 27 27 15 2 2 9.0%
1952 12.5 26 13 21 16 -13 -5 9.0%
1934 13.0 27 32 31 35 5 -4 6.2%
1953 13.0 28 10 18 18 -18 -10 8.6%
1927 13.1 29 44 38 28 15 9 7.2%
1938* 13.5 30 40 36 34 10 6 6.6%
1974 13.5 31 5 17 39 -26 -14 5.8%
1958 13.7 32 39 35 29 7 3 7.0%
1941* 13.9 33 3 19 30 -30 -14 7.0%
1939 15.5 34 37 39 36 3 5 6.0%
1946 15.6 35 20 30 31 -15 5 6.8%
1955 15.9 36 33 37 32 -3 1 6.8%
1940* 16.3 37 25 33 37 -12 -4 6.0%
1971 16.4 38 49 46 33 11 8 6.8%
1931* 16.7 39 22 32 42 -17 -7 5.6%
1957 16.7 40 28 34 38 -12 -6 6.0%
Have fun.
John R.
Last edited by
JWR1945 on Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:10 am
Differences of Orders
Table 3
The letter "O" stands for the "relative order."
"P" stands for PE10.
"HDBR80" is the Historical Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Code: Select all
Year PE10 O(P) O(q) O(P*q) O(HDBR) O(q)-O(P) O(P*q)-O(P) HDBR80
1936 17.0 41 58 52 43 17 11 5.4%
1970 17.0 42 45 44 48 3 2 4.8%
1972 17.2 43 54 49 49 11 6 4.8%
1959 17.9 44 42 43 44 -2 -1 5.4%
1956 18.2 45 34 40 40 -11 -5 5.8%
1960 18.3 46 41 45 45 -5 -1 5.2%
1961 18.4 47 50 47 46 3 0 5.2%
1973 18.7 48 38 41 52 -10 -7 4.6%
1928 18.8 49 56 54 41 7 5 5.8%
1963 19.2 50 52 48 47 2 -2 5.0%
1967 20.4 51 55 57 55 4 6 4.4%
1962 21.1 52 46 50 50 -6 -2 4.8%
1969 21.1 53 51 53 56 -2 0 4.2%
1968 21.6 54 59 59 57 5 5 4.2%
1937* 21.6 55 30 42 53 -25 -13 4.6%
1964 21.6 56 53 56 54 -3 0 4.6%
1930 22.3 57 43 51 51 -14 -6 4.8%
1965 23.2 58 57 58 58 -1 0 4.2%
1966 24.0 59 48 55 60 -11 -4 4.0%
1929 27.0 60 60 60 59 0 0 4.2%
Have fun.
John R.
Last edited by
JWR1945 on Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
BenSolar
*** Veteran
Posts: 242 Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2002 5:46 am
Location: Western NC
Post
by BenSolar » Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:10 am
JWR1945 wrote: "HDBR80" is the Hardware Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
Hardware Database Rate? Have you changed the terminology again? I was just getting used to Historical Database Rate (HDBR) as the preferred alternative to historical Safe Withdrawal Rate (hSWR).
"Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not; remember that what you now have was once among the things only hoped for." - Epicurus
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:14 am
Oops! Correction and other tables to follow.
Thanks.
John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:33 am
Products of Orders
Table 1
The letter "O" stands for the "relative order."
"P" stands for PE10.
"HDBR80" is the Historical Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Code: Select all
Year P O(P) O(q) O(P*q) O(HDBR) O([O(P)]*[O(q)]) O([O(P)]*[O(P*q)]) HDBR80
1921 5.1 1 2 1 1 1 1 11.6%
1922 6.2 2 15 2 5 3 2 10.2%
1924 8.0 3 23 8 8 7 4 9.4%
1923 8.1 4 14 3 13 5 3 9.0%
1933* 8.7 5 36 23 19 15 11 8.4%
1980 8.8 6 17 9 4 11 7 10.4%
1975 8.9 7 21 11 21 12 8 8.2%
1978 9.2 8 6 4 11 4 5 9.2%
1979 9.2 9 9 5 7 8 6 9.6%
1932* 9.3 10 18 12 23 16 12 8.0%
1925 9.6 11 31 25 20 22 17 8.4%
1942* 10.1 12 8 10 14 9 13 9.0%
1943 10.1 13 19 15 12 19 14 9.2%
1949 10.2 14 4 7 2 6 10 11.0%
1948 10.4 15 1 6 3 2 9 10.8%
1950 10.7 16 12 14 6 17 15 10.2%
1944 11.0 17 24 22 17 24 19 8.6%
1976 11.1 18 26 26 27 25 22 7.2%
1926 11.3 19 35 29 24 26 20 7.6%
1935 11.4 20 47 36 25 33 29 7.6%
Have fun.
John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:38 am
Products of Orders
Table 2
The letter "O" stands for the "relative order."
"P" stands for PE10.
"HDBR80" is the Historical Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Code: Select all
Year P O(P) O(q) O(P*q) O(HDBR) O([O(P)]*[O(q)]) O([O(P)]*[O(P*q)]) HDBR80
1947 11.4 21 7 13 9 13 16 9.4%
1977 11.4 22 11 16 26 18 18 7.4%
1951 11.8 23 16 20 10 23 21 9.4%
1945 11.9 24 29 28 22 28 27 8.2%
1954 12.0 25 27 27 15 27 28 9.0%
1952 12.5 26 13 21 16 21 25 9.0%
1934 13.0 27 32 31 35 31 30 6.2%
1953 13.0 28 10 18 18 20 23 8.6%
1927 13.1 29 44 38 28 39 33 7.2%
1938* 13.5 30 40 36 34 36 32 6.6%
1974 13.5 31 5 17 39 14 24 5.8%
1958 13.7 32 39 35 29 37 34 7.0%
1941* 13.9 33 3 19 30 10 26 7.0%
1939 15.5 34 37 39 36 38 38 6.0%
1946 15.6 35 20 30 31 29 31 6.8%
1955 15.9 36 33 37 32 35 35 6.8%
1940* 16.3 37 25 33 37 32 36 6.0%
1971 16.4 38 49 46 33 44 40 6.8%
1931* 16.7 39 22 32 42 30 37 5.6%
1957 16.7 40 28 34 38 34 39 6.0%
Have fun.
John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 7:40 am
Products of Orders
Table 3
The letter "O" stands for the "relative order."
"P" stands for PE10.
"HDBR80" is the Historical Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Code: Select all
Year P O(P) O(q) O(P*q) O(HDBR) O([O(P)]*[O(q)]) O([O(P)]*[O(P*q)]) HDBR80
1936 17.0 41 58 52 43 49 47 5.4%
1970 17.0 42 45 44 48 46 42 4.8%
1972 17.2 43 54 49 49 47 46 4.8%
1959 17.9 44 42 43 44 43 43 5.4%
1956 18.2 45 34 40 40 40 41 5.8%
1960 18.3 46 41 45 45 45 45 5.2%
1961 18.4 47 50 47 46 48 48 5.2%
1973 18.7 48 38 41 52 42 44 4.6%
1928 18.8 49 56 54 41 54 52 5.8%
1963 19.2 50 52 48 47 52 50 5.0%
1967 20.4 51 55 57 55 55 54 4.4%
1962 21.1 52 46 50 50 50 51 4.8%
1969 21.1 53 51 53 56 53 53 4.2%
1968 21.6 54 59 59 57 58 57 4.2%
1937* 21.6 55 30 42 53 41 49 4.6%
1964 21.6 56 53 56 54 57 56 4.6%
1930 22.3 57 43 51 51 51 55 4.8%
1965 23.2 58 57 58 58 59 59 4.2%
1966 24.0 59 48 55 60 56 58 4.0%
1929 27.0 60 60 60 59 60 60 4.2%
Have fun.
John R.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 8:00 am
Differences of Orders
Ordered by Historical Database Rates
Table 1
The letter "O" stands for the "relative order."
"P" stands for PE10.
"HDBR80" is the Historical Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Code: Select all
Year P O(P) O(q) O(P*q) O(HDBR) O(O(q)-O(P)) O(O(P*q)-O(P)) HDBR80
1921 5.1 1 2 1 1 1 0 11.6%
1949 10.2 14 4 7 2 -10 -7 11.0%
1948 10.4 15 1 6 3 -14 -5 10.8%
1980 8.8 6 17 9 4 11 3 10.4%
1922 6.2 2 15 2 5 13 0 10.2%
1950 10.7 16 12 14 6 -4 -2 10.2%
1979 9.2 9 9 5 7 0 -4 9.6%
1924 8.0 3 23 8 8 20 5 9.4%
1947 11.4 21 7 13 9 -14 -8 9.4%
1951 11.8 23 16 20 10 -7 -3 9.4%
1978 9.2 8 6 4 11 -2 -4 9.2%
1943 10.1 13 19 15 12 6 2 9.2%
1923 8.1 4 14 3 13 10 -1 9.0%
1942* 10.1 12 8 10 14 -4 -2 9.0%
1954 12.0 25 27 27 15 2 2 9.0%
1952 12.5 26 13 21 16 -13 -5 9.0%
1944 11.0 17 24 22 17 7 5 8.6%
1953 13.0 28 10 18 18 -18 -10 8.6%
1933* 8.7 5 36 23 19 31 18 8.4%
1925 9.6 11 31 25 20 20 14 8.4%
Have fun.
John R.
Last edited by
JWR1945 on Tue Nov 11, 2003 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 8:09 am
Differences of Orders
Ordered by Historical Database Rates
Table 2
The letter "O" stands for the "relative order."
"P" stands for PE10.
"HDBR80" is the Historical Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Code: Select all
Year P O(P) O(q) O(P*q) O(HDBR) O(O(q)-O(P)) O(O(P*q)-O(P)) HDBR80
1975 8.9 7 21 11 21 14 4 8.2%
1945 11.9 24 29 28 22 5 4 8.2%
1932* 9.3 10 18 12 23 8 4 8.0%
1926 11.3 19 35 29 24 16 10 7.6%
1935 11.4 20 47 36 25 27 16 7.6%
1977 11.4 22 11 16 26 -11 -6 7.4%
1976 11.1 18 26 26 27 8 8 7.2%
1927 13.1 29 44 38 28 15 9 7.2%
1958 13.7 32 39 35 29 7 3 7.0%
1941* 13.9 33 3 19 30 -30 -14 7.0%
1946 15.6 35 20 30 31 -15 5 6.8%
1955 15.9 36 33 37 32 -3 1 6.8%
1971 16.4 38 49 46 33 11 8 6.8%
1938* 13.5 30 40 36 34 10 6 6.6%
1934 13.0 27 32 31 35 5 -4 6.2%
1939 15.5 34 37 39 36 3 5 6.0%
1940* 16.3 37 25 33 37 -12 -4 6.0%
1957 16.7 40 28 34 38 -12 -6 6.0%
1974 13.5 31 5 17 39 -26 -14 5.8%
1956 18.2 45 34 40 40 -11 -5 5.8%
Have fun.
John R.
Last edited by
JWR1945 on Tue Nov 11, 2003 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
JWR1945
***** Legend
Posts: 1697 Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2002 3:59 am
Location: Crestview, Florida
Post
by JWR1945 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 8:13 am
Differences of Orders
Ordered by Historical Database Rates
Table 3
The letter "O" stands for the "relative order."
"P" stands for PE10.
"HDBR80" is the Historical Database Rate for the 80% stock portfolio.
*indicates that there was a sharp dividend cut within two or three years.
Code: Select all
Year P O(P) O(q) O(P*q) O(HDBR) O(O(q)-O(P)) O(O(P*q)-O(P)) HDBR80
1928 18.8 49 56 54 41 7 5 5.8%
1931* 16.7 39 22 32 42 -17 -7 5.6%
1936 17.0 41 58 52 43 17 11 5.4%
1959 17.9 44 42 43 44 -2 -1 5.4%
1960 18.3 46 41 45 45 -5 -1 5.2%
1961 18.4 47 50 47 46 3 0 5.2%
1963 19.2 50 52 48 47 2 -2 5.0%
1970 17.0 42 45 44 48 3 2 4.8%
1972 17.2 43 54 49 49 11 6 4.8%
1962 21.1 52 46 50 50 -6 -2 4.8%
1930 22.3 57 43 51 51 -14 -6 4.8%
1973 18.7 48 38 41 52 -10 -7 4.6%
1937* 21.6 55 30 42 53 -25 -13 4.6%
1964 21.6 56 53 56 54 -3 0 4.6%
1967 20.4 51 55 57 55 4 6 4.4%
1969 21.1 53 51 53 56 -2 0 4.2%
1968 21.6 54 59 59 57 5 5 4.2%
1965 23.2 58 57 58 58 -1 0 4.2%
1929 27.0 60 60 60 59 0 0 4.2%
1966 24.0 59 48 55 60 -11 -4 4.0%
Have fun.
John R.
Last edited by
JWR1945 on Tue Nov 11, 2003 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.