Meaning of "if the future is worse than the past"

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ataloss
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Meaning of "if the future is worse than the past"

Post by ataloss »


Have fun.

Ataloss
wanderer
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Post by wanderer »

stop... head... hurtz... :(
regards,

wanderer

The field has eyes / the wood has ears / I will see / be silent and hear
peteyperson
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Re: Meaning of "if the future is worse than the past&qu

Post by peteyperson »

Good post.

Is it a fair summary to say that you are unconvinced that the Monte Carlo random sequence and returns based on historical sequencing are the direction to rely on?

Is it a fair summary to say that the other than the sequencing method used, intercst and Bernstein have different approaches to market valuation which affects their result being 2% vs. 4%?

Petey
ataloss wrote: Bernstein believes:

1. His Monte Carlo input is based on historical relations between valuation, returns and other factors which will be similar in the future
2. He has tried very hard to make inputs to his Monte carlo analysis as reliable as possible
3. These inputs are reliable
4. The monte carlo process calculates results reliably
5. Therefore, his result will be reliable
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ataloss
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Post by ataloss »

Alternative summaries:
Regardless of methodology examine assumptions about future returns and make sure they aren't "out of date." Assumptions determine results.

Beware of someone claiming "mathematical certitude" about the result of a mathematical process if the inputs were estimates.


Examine the statements of swr "experts" to see if they use terms consistently.

Gummy
*** I recall telling ataloss:
I'm amused when I overhear discussions (in a restaurant, for example) like:
"It's clearly a case of avita-gargoyle"
"It most certainly is NOT. It's more certo-mosivich"

I feel like asking the participants to define "avita-gargoyle" and "certo-mosivich", feeling that, if they could, the definitions themselves would settle the issue
6/5/03
I think that what is confusing people is that people are thinking that stock returns that are lower than we have seen in the past constitute a case of the future being worse than the past.
hocus 6/3
Have fun.

Ataloss
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