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Algorithm G1 with TIPS
Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:00 pm
by JWR1945
I have rewritten this article because of some errors.
There were bugs with the sequences beginning in 1892, 1968, 1972 and 1973. I have collected a new set of data. The results are better than previously reported.
Algorithm G1 with TIPS
Gummy recently came up with an interesting withdrawal algorithm. It adjusts withdrawals according to the percentage earnings yield, 100E10/P or 100/ [P/E10], and an offset. I have added two algorithms of this sort. They are in all of my Gummy type calculators. Algorithm G1 makes an adjustment as a percentage of a portfolio's current balance. Algorithm G2 makes an adjustment as a percentage of a portfolio's initial balance.
My implementation is highly flexible.
I used my Gummy 02 calculator in this survey. It is similar to the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08 except that it includes Algorithms G1 and G2.
Algorithm G1 appears in row 24 in columns C and D.
Total Expenses = (100E10/P+B15)*B25*(Current Balance)
Gummy's Multiplier is in cell B25. This term should a positive number whenever withdrawals are to increase as the percentage earnings yield increases.
Gummy's Offset is in cell B15. This term should a negative number.
To use the algorithm, set Gummy Algorithm 1? Y=1 equal to 1 in cell B24.
General Procedure
I examined two portfolio types: one consisting of 50% stocks and 50% TIPS and the other of 80% stocks and 20% TIPS. I set the TIPS interest rate was 0%. That is, I used an inflation-matched cash equivalent.
I looked at slopes of 0.25 and 0.50. That is, I set B25 equal to 0.25, which is plus 0.25, and to 0.50, which is plus 0.50. [The sign should be the opposite of what is used with algorithm G2.]
I set the offset equal to (2.5%). That is, I set B15 equal to (2.5%), which is minus 2.5%.
By setting the offset to (2.5%), there is no adjustment to the withdrawal amount when the earnings yield 100E10/P is 2.5%. That is, there is no adjustment when P/E10 equals 40.
When P/E10 equals 20, the percentage earnings yield is 5.0%. The withdrawal rate adjustment is (slope)*(5%-2.5%) in real dollars. This is (0.25)*(2.5%) or (0.50)*(2.5%) depending upon the choice of the slope term (i.e., multiplier) B25. These adjustments increase the withdrawal amounts by 0.625% or 1.250% of the portfolio's current balance.
When P/E10 equals 10, the percentage earnings yield is 10%. The withdrawal rate adjustment is (slope)*(10%-2.5%) in real dollars. This is (0.25)*(7.5%) or (0.50)*(7.5%), which is an increase of 1.875% or 3.75% of the portfolio's current balance.
My final step was to adjust the amount in cell B9, the regular input for the withdrawal rate, in increments of 0.1% as high as I could without any failures in 30 years.
I started with initial balances of $100000. [There is no way to enter expenses independent of the withdrawal algorithm. The expenses were 0% and the entry in cell B15 was -2.5%.] I adjusted the standard withdrawals (the term in cell B9) to match inflation according to the CPI. I rebalanced the portfolio annually.
I determined the five-year rolling averages of the amount withdrawn for the historical sequences starting in 1921-1980 at the end of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years.
Tables
Tables with all of these outputs follow this post.
Observations
These results favored the higher stock allocation (80%).
Using a slope of 0.25 (that is, setting B25 equal to plus 0.25) provided a higher income floor than using a slope of 0.50.
Using a slope of 0.50 (that is, setting B25 equal to plus 0.50) produced a higher income ceiling than using a slope of 0.25.
In some data not presented here, I took results with an initial offset of (7.0%). That is, at minus 7.0% as in Gummy's original description of his algorithm. This resulted in some negative withdrawal amounts. The negative withdrawals (i.e., deposits needed to satisfy the algorithm) resulted from differences between what I implemented and Gummy's actual approach.
DETAILS
With a slope of 0.50 and a portfolio with 50% stocks, the (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts generally stayed above $3000 for the first 20 years. The only exception was at year 20 of the 1980 sequence. Its withdrawal amount was $2910. Withdrawal amounts stayed above $2600 for all valid cases. [There were a few other conditions are artifacts of the dummy data used after 2002.]
With 80% stocks, withdrawals were above $3200 for the first 20 years. The worst case was $3211 at year 20 of the 1980 historical sequence. Withdrawal amounts stayed above $2700 for all valid cases. [There were a few other conditions are artifacts of the dummy data used after 2002.]
The maximum (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts are close to $7000 with a portfolio with 50% stocks and often stayed above $5000. The maximum (five-year averages of the) withdrawal amounts were even higher with a portfolio with 80% stocks.
With a slope of 0.25, the income floors were $3500 in both cases during the first 20 years (with $3285 being the worst case exception, occurring in the 1980 sequence with 50% stocks). With 50% stocks, withdrawal amounts exceeded $3100 for all valid conditions. Sufficient cash remained to permit withdrawals of $3200 for all valid conditions. With 80% stocks, withdrawal amounts exceeded $3200 for all valid conditions. [There were artifacts associated with the dummy data as well.]
The ceilings were close to $5000 with 50% stocks and $7000 with 80% stocks.
I determined the balances at years 10, 20 and 30 for both 50% stocks and 80% stocks when the slope was 0.25.
When the portfolio had 50% stocks, there were 29 times that the balance fell below $40000. They occurred in 18 separate sequences. There were 17 times that the balance fell below $30000. They occurred in 15 separate sequences. There were 7 times that the balance fell below $20000. They occurred in 7 separate sequences.
When the portfolio had 80% stocks, there were 14 times that the balance fell below $40000. They occurred in 8 separate sequences. There were 7 times that the balance fell below $30000. They occurred in 5 separate sequences. There were 2 times that the balance fell below $20000. They occurred in 2 separate sequences.
Comments about the Algorithm
Algorithm G1 is an excellent variable withdrawal rate algorithm.
I used the slopes that had worked well with algorithm G2. A slope in the neighborhood of 0.25 was a good choice. A slope of 0.50 was another good choice. It had a lower income floor and a higher income ceiling.
My procedure for determining the amount to be withdrawn resulted in a high level for the standard withdrawal amount, which is based only on the portfolio's initial balance and inflation. This resulted in a higher income floor than we usually see with variable withdrawal rate algorithms.
Both portfolios provide steady income streams. Both portfolios had a large percentage of portfolio balances below $40000 at year 30 (with a few very low balances). This indicates that the algorithm is doing what it is supposed to do: translating favorable stock market conditions into immediate income without giving up safety. This shows up as limited variation in final balances.
There is room for further optimization of the withdrawal rates.
These results favored the higher stock allocation (80%).
Today's withdrawal rates
Today's P/E10 value is close to 28 or 29. Today's percentage earnings yield, 100% / [P/E10], is very close to 3.5%.
When using a slope of 0.25 to adjust withdrawal amounts: The variable portion of withdrawals is (slope of 0.25)*(100E10/P - offset of 2.5%) = (slope of 0.25)*(3.5% - 2.5%) = (0.25)*(1%) = 0.25% of the portfolio's current balance.
With a slope of 0.25 and with 50% stocks, the standard portion of withdrawals is 3.1% of the portfolio's initial balance plus inflation (i.e., 3.1% in real dollars) for an intended lifetime of 30 years.
With a slope of 0.25 and with 80% stocks, the standard portion of withdrawals is 3.2% of the portfolio's initial balance plus inflation (i.e., 3.2% in real dollars) for an intended lifetime of 30 years.
For a retirement beginning today, the calculated withdrawal rates are 3.35% with 50% stocks and 3.45% with 80% stocks (when adjusting withdrawal amounts using a slope of 0.25).
When using a slope of 0.50 to adjust withdrawal amounts: The variable portion of withdrawals is (slope of 0.50)*(100E10/P - offset of 2.5%) = (slope of 0.50)*(3.5% - 2.5%) = (0.50)*(1%) = 0.50% of the portfolio's current balance.
With a slope of 0.50 and with 50% stocks, the standard portion of withdrawals is 2.6% of the portfolio's initial balance plus inflation (i.e., 2.6% in real dollars) for an intended lifetime of 30 years.
With a slope of 0.50 and with 80% stocks, the standard portion of withdrawals is 2.7% of the portfolio's initial balance plus inflation (i.e., 2.7% in real dollars) for an intended lifetime of 30 years.
For a retirement beginning today, the calculated withdrawal rates are 3.1% with 50% stocks and 3.2% with 80% stocks (when adjusting withdrawal amounts using a slope of 0.50).
Judging from previous historical sequences starting from times of high valuations and low initial withdrawal amounts, withdrawal amounts are likely to rise first and then fall.
The upside potential using the bigger slope is limited. Judging from previous historical sequences starting from times of high valuations and low initial withdrawal amounts, withdrawal amounts are likely to remain close well under 5% of the initial balance even when the slope is increased to 0.50.
Remember that this is our initial survey.
Have fun.
John R.
Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:10 pm
by JWR1945
Revised TIPS at 0% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.7%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.7%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.8%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 7730 5181 7409
1922 7261 6006 6707
1923 6279 6361 6068
1924 5603 6964 6171
1925 4974 7007 5600
1926 4594 6209 5275
1927 4985 5386 5539
1928 4922 4627 4771
1929 4540 4015 4085
1930 4782 3939 4193
1931 4999 4267 4469
1932 5404 5560 5635
1933 5766 6205 6401
1934 4968 5364 5275
1935 5086 5937 5790
1936 4587 4909 4820
1937 4477 4366 4193
1938 5097 5099 5047
1939 5021 4887 4814
1940 5200 4982 4806
1941 5748 5808 5504
1942 6302 6468 6280
1943 6067 6179 6221
1944 5782 5870 5687
1945 5604 5498 5518
1946 5543 5229 5403
1947 6172 5969 6108
1948 6256 6308 6022
1949 6183 6015 5816
1950 6095 6187 5724
1951 5520 5748 5089
1952 5254 5306 4942
1953 5290 5021 4794
1954 5225 5026 4944
1955 4685 4342 4564
1956 4472 4017 4454
1957 4419 4117 4570
1958 4465 4253 4909
1959 4059 3942 4571
1960 3971 4100 4814
1961 3881 4251 4864
1962 3823 4138 4692
1963 3877 4324 5107
1964 3780 4297 4736
1965 3834 4359 4381
1966 3927 4346 4276
1967 4129 4678 4614
1968 4106 4730 4333
1969 4286 4720 4230
1970 4800 4945 4524
1971 4889 4955 4404
1972 4913 4907 4033
1973 5098 4734 3862
1974 5897 5464 4367
1975 6738 6440 4929
1976 6115 5569 4349
1977 6357 5233 4297
1978 7060 5714 4640
1979 7202 5679 4642
1980 7202 5458 4662
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 6274 7231 7554
1922 7123 7467 7837
1923 6586 6849 7094
1924 6979 7101 7426
1925 6718 6646 6657
1926 5856 5935 5634
1927 5610 5655 5424
1928 4716 4599 4445
1929 3830 3566 3270
1930 3878 3579 3367
1931 4302 3947 3880
1932 5684 5454 5531
1933 6570 6661 6369
1934 5272 5059 4860
1935 5704 5749 5321
1936 4482 4515 4053
1937 3885 3770 3515
1938 4949 4686 4467
1939 4579 4379 4274
1940 4742 4394 4629
1941 5729 5072 6022
1942 6458 6011 7343
1943 5937 5684 7131
1944 5488 5424 7084
1945 5109 5521 7253
1946 4799 5615 7040
1947 5686 6868 9114
1948 5767 7260 10179
1949 5764 7661 9933
1950 6290 8572 9774
1951 6046 7727 8498
1952 5777 7347 7944
1953 5749 7568 7427
1954 6271 7786 7445
1955 5611 5983 5633
1956 5187 5326 4777
1957 5391 5504 4527
1958 6117 5845 4747
1959 5159 4690 3783
1960 4964 4544 3612
1961 4923 4373 3515
1962 4631 3805 3226
1963 4744 3870 3292
1964 4246 3448 3014
1965 3921 3180 2865
1966 3724 3063 2784
1967 3791 3215 2903
1968 3543 3053 2808
1969 3436 3005 2779
1970 3598 3196 2804
1971 3537 3124 2765
1972 3397 3030 2752
1973 3286 2958 2651
1974 3685 3125 2345
1975 4245 3095 1752
1976 3706 2880 1804
1977 3655 2905 1446
1978 3829 2362 1150
1979 3612 1847 1273
1980 3211 1442 1456
More follows.
John R.
Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:15 pm
by JWR1945
Revised TIPS at 0% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.2%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.2%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.3%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 5842 4601 6004
1922 5573 5024 5537
1923 5047 5188 5143
1924 4684 5479 5172
1925 4354 5479 4828
1926 4156 5042 4626
1927 4351 4614 4766
1928 4322 4217 4339
1929 4131 3891 3951
1930 4261 3856 4021
1931 4378 4036 4191
1932 4583 4728 4869
1933 4762 5064 5302
1934 4350 4606 4648
1935 4407 4911 4948
1936 4152 4362 4385
1937 4099 4077 4029
1938 4418 4485 4544
1939 4382 4374 4413
1940 4479 4435 4419
1941 4767 4901 4844
1942 5051 5268 5298
1943 4925 5102 5245
1944 4777 4927 4917
1945 4686 4720 4805
1946 4660 4575 4735
1947 4988 4982 5136
1948 5029 5158 5073
1949 4988 4985 4935
1950 4938 5063 4868
1951 4638 4814 4501
1952 4499 4570 4408
1953 4516 4415 4319
1954 4479 4409 4390
1955 4203 4046 4175
1956 4095 3875 4111
1957 4068 3926 4171
1958 4089 3993 4347
1959 3882 3828 4161
1960 3838 3907 4289
1961 3792 3983 4319
1962 3762 3925 4230
1963 3789 4021 4460
1964 3740 4006 4268
1965 3767 4040 4088
1966 3815 4038 4041
1967 3918 4218 4250
1968 3907 4251 4107
1969 3999 4256 4064
1970 4262 4396 4262
1971 4310 4411 4205
1972 4326 4398 3996
1973 4427 4320 3903
1974 4849 4755 4232
1975 5286 5319 4578
1976 4964 4822 4209
1977 5099 4641 4171
1978 5472 4918 4372
1979 5548 4889 4358
1980 5547 4751 4352
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 5482 6315 6876
1922 5942 6400 6983
1923 5572 5945 6392
1924 5776 6075 6585
1925 5592 5755 6003
1926 5058 5273 5258
1927 4918 5098 5106
1928 4384 4416 4422
1929 3849 3742 3598
1930 3892 3766 3677
1931 4167 4027 4050
1932 5037 5037 5201
1933 5579 5817 5750
1934 4763 4734 4674
1935 5034 5177 4976
1936 4270 4353 4100
1937 3900 3865 3731
1938 4576 4476 4380
1939 4345 4270 4242
1940 4449 4281 4477
1941 5071 4724 5409
1942 5507 5308 6259
1943 5162 5068 6070
1944 4865 4877 6001
1945 4621 4914 6089
1946 4432 4962 5954
1947 4952 5721 7293
1948 4979 5927 7955
1949 4952 6133 7782
1950 5231 6655 7705
1951 5067 6130 6882
1952 4899 5891 6542
1953 4870 6017 6238
1954 5147 6153 6276
1955 4769 5096 5094
1956 4533 4714 4543
1957 4650 4843 4405
1958 5059 5082 4575
1959 4523 4376 3917
1960 4434 4307 3813
1961 4424 4219 3755
1962 4267 3875 3557
1963 4360 3939 3613
1964 4078 3670 3422
1965 3897 3502 3321
1966 3792 3433 3268
1967 3860 3545 3356
1968 3716 3441 3288
1969 3659 3413 3266
1970 3778 3549 3279
1971 3744 3500 3249
1972 3654 3434 3241
1973 3586 3385 3160
1974 3853 3495 2944
1975 4209 3466 2554
1976 3848 3319 2603
1977 3807 3333 2385
1978 3907 2985 2228
1979 3759 2673 2334
1980 3506 2446 2471
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 229375 240260 301476
1922 149605 182339 300067
1923 122274 155326 257146
1924 171736 180690 266346
1925 130316 164536 288944
1926 152761 167487 269084
1927 170653 117902 242372
1928 93724 70364 127483
1929 66250 34145 47134
1930 73436 42514 62384
1931 81486 69668 119843
1932 108327 154390 345114
1933 121202 190198 393666
1934 91725 114443 255333
1935 117176 188804 362111
1936 95645 127919 198190
1937 54821 80395 97643
1938 77249 144946 252906
1939 68989 155696 216127
1940 76594 165513 197975
1941 106297 223902 276560
1942 146931 335092 400125
1943 149070 299042 403803
1944 128383 291753 275240
1945 153309 285440 180870
1946 145276 237862 167315
1947 202529 312668 254266
1948 204478 375602 244829
1949 251856 374765 237655
1950 236290 299578 212358
1951 204798 248298 180726
1952 208839 234611 133564
1953 185000 235230 137821
1954 215489 194776 154355
1955 168863 97311 90467
1956 145004 88786 69671
1957 132751 90330 84707
1958 162323 90625 99735
1959 124627 60282 55222
1960 105991 55695 57093
1961 103356 55974 50153
1962 94308 36730 36890
1963 110266 46617 50434
1964 74789 36105 26499
1965 48554 26651 10257
1966 52608 24581 4543
1967 60815 41133 32477
1968 46323 30177 21332
1969 44113 30093 25701
1970 51891 51507 85886
1971 53921 47802 82758
1972 41307 48771 58141
1973 41518 43116 41194
1974 64772 88862 94488
1975 96279 148498 149292
1976 84585 132594 84456
1977 100451 156388 69931
1978 117991 254371 82894
1979 127839 320692 70139
1980 146168 365591 59063
This completes the 80% stock data.
Have fun.
John R.
Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:18 pm
by JWR1945
Revised TIPS at 0% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.6%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.6%.
There were three failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.7%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 7062 4247 5664
1922 6676 4888 5356
1923 5912 5406 4949
1924 5182 5901 4968
1925 4621 6189 4665
1926 4266 5704 4525
1927 4642 5034 4849
1928 4833 4417 4472
1929 4691 3998 4092
1930 4918 3837 4134
1931 5041 4047 4251
1932 5081 4900 4826
1933 5246 5488 5378
1934 4745 5088 4790
1935 4714 5490 5082
1936 4463 4829 4572
1937 4530 4408 4155
1938 4959 4801 4556
1939 4993 4692 4393
1940 5201 4791 4332
1941 5632 5446 4701
1942 5868 5759 4953
1943 5676 5498 4872
1944 5531 5274 4549
1945 5462 4975 4464
1946 5644 4872 4550
1947 5930 5098 4735
1948 5814 5156 4538
1949 5682 4890 4410
1950 5632 5054 4419
1951 5159 4830 4083
1952 4898 4545 4012
1953 4909 4331 3938
1954 4756 4293 4006
1955 4420 3907 3899
1956 4307 3700 3930
1957 4239 3765 4028
1958 4175 3804 4213
1959 3895 3639 4113
1960 3804 3783 4386
1961 3700 3930 4481
1962 3672 3899 4457
1963 3684 4033 4836
1964 3625 4090 4662
1965 3713 4264 4413
1966 3841 4335 4370
1967 3999 4626 4652
1968 4014 4802 4457
1969 4224 4887 4378
1970 4703 5005 4525
1971 4838 5016 4385
1972 4954 5068 4028
1973 5297 4998 3882
1974 5961 5473 4114
1975 6396 5945 4256
1976 6038 5353 3902
1977 6349 4997 3859
1978 6841 5175 3990
1979 6988 5105 3978
1980 6936 4841 3965
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 4496 4876 4624
1922 5196 5161 4982
1923 5124 4980 4750
1924 5386 5100 4822
1925 5415 5006 4538
1926 4916 4667 4032
1927 4769 4552 3930
1928 4269 3984 3513
1929 3754 3407 2988
1930 3718 3304 2961
1931 3945 3412 3128
1932 4615 3983 3679
1933 5177 4585 4060
1934 4496 3899 3549
1935 4610 4136 3677
1936 3951 3653 3220
1937 3594 3311 3015
1938 4027 3594 3305
1939 3812 3473 3252
1940 3886 3475 3413
1941 4384 3756 4008
1942 4598 4055 4433
1943 4301 3912 4376
1944 4114 3841 4451
1945 3942 3939 4659
1946 3878 4176 4886
1947 4165 4587 5621
1948 4116 4682 6032
1949 4114 4907 6029
1950 4476 5601 6214
1951 4460 5355 5679
1952 4374 5260 5458
1953 4415 5541 5264
1954 4727 5728 5235
1955 4590 4852 4369
1956 4481 4557 3949
1957 4675 4714 3761
1958 5168 4857 3784
1959 4702 4190 3275
1960 4578 4089 3160
1961 4557 3949 3082
1962 4436 3551 2937
1963 4495 3529 2952
1964 4149 3249 2803
1965 3921 3060 2728
1966 3772 2978 2682
1967 3714 3041 2731
1968 3503 2935 2683
1969 3398 2898 2667
1970 3417 2976 2664
1971 3336 2910 2636
1972 3241 2854 2626
1973 3175 2819 2571
1974 3351 2872 2426
1975 3559 2809 2180
1976 3269 2698 2158
1977 3231 2700 1940
1978 3279 2437 1752
1979 3155 2161 1724
1980 2910 1918 1771
More data with 50% stocks follow.
Have fun.
John R.
Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:23 pm
by JWR1945
Revised TIPS at 0% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 0% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.1%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.1%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.2%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 5437 4026 4913
1922 5216 4358 4695
1923 4806 4619 4445
1924 4417 4858 4435
1925 4125 4992 4251
1926 3940 4722 4159
1927 4128 4376 4333
1928 4227 4058 4126
1929 4160 3838 3916
1930 4284 3757 3947
1931 4351 3873 4023
1932 4367 4324 4355
1933 4446 4630 4666
1934 4187 4411 4326
1935 4168 4622 4495
1936 4040 4271 4201
1937 4078 4056 3969
1938 4299 4277 4214
1939 4320 4223 4126
1940 4431 4287 4100
1941 4657 4656 4327
1942 4777 4827 4470
1943 4675 4677 4411
1944 4599 4552 4214
1945 4564 4387 4156
1946 4664 4335 4206
1947 4813 4457 4306
1948 4751 4481 4185
1949 4679 4327 4100
1950 4650 4406 4096
1951 4403 4276 3901
1952 4267 4118 3854
1953 4272 4002 3809
1954 4190 3976 3838
1955 4018 3771 3773
1956 3962 3663 3786
1957 3927 3695 3836
1958 3892 3712 3930
1959 3750 3624 3871
1960 3704 3696 4013
1961 3651 3769 4065
1962 3637 3753 4054
1963 3642 3822 4263
1964 3613 3850 4177
1965 3657 3942 4058
1966 3722 3984 4049
1967 3802 4143 4226
1968 3811 4241 4136
1969 3918 4299 4111
1970 4164 4381 4221
1971 4235 4400 4152
1972 4299 4444 3955
1973 4483 4428 3881
1974 4834 4717 4036
1975 5059 4989 4120
1976 4876 4654 3895
1977 5047 4461 3865
1978 5308 4563 3937
1979 5387 4517 3919
1980 5358 4357 3898
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 4305 4665 4664
1922 4699 4810 4866
1923 4629 4665 4666
1924 4761 4719 4689
1925 4759 4644 4469
1926 4447 4408 4099
1927 4366 4338 4026
1928 4074 3978 3741
1929 3770 3611 3378
1930 3760 3556 3367
1931 3909 3637 3490
1932 4325 4014 3867
1933 4667 4401 4115
1934 4242 3939 3749
1935 4315 4088 3829
1936 3907 3767 3515
1937 3691 3546 3376
1938 3967 3736 3573
1939 3836 3656 3535
1940 3884 3659 3643
1941 4198 3842 4041
1942 4319 4022 4307
1943 4124 3916 4247
1944 3998 3859 4277
1945 3887 3908 4400
1946 3848 4050 4550
1947 4012 4293 5016
1948 3971 4331 5259
1949 3956 4444 5240
1950 4150 4843 5369
1951 4126 4681 5021
1952 4066 4612 4881
1953 4080 4768 4773
1954 4241 4877 4765
1955 4155 4369 4206
1956 4094 4202 3944
1957 4203 4310 3843
1958 4474 4417 3872
1959 4214 4015 3532
1960 4162 3972 3465
1961 4162 3902 3420
1962 4103 3669 3324
1963 4162 3675 3342
1964 3974 3502 3242
1965 3855 3389 3194
1966 3783 3344 3166
1967 3773 3394 3203
1968 3655 3329 3169
1969 3601 3308 3156
1970 3625 3366 3150
1971 3578 3321 3128
1972 3519 3282 3122
1973 3480 3258 3075
1974 3599 3290 2969
1975 3725 3241 2807
1976 3531 3165 2799
1977 3501 3166 2665
1978 3524 2996 2566
1979 3439 2829 2569
1980 3285 2694 2618
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 143305 125741 111547
1922 112904 110293 120312
1923 99334 99401 108250
1924 124950 109946 111711
1925 105250 103774 118309
1926 116767 102510 105563
1927 126333 82626 99101
1928 86509 57572 59454
1929 69155 36037 27281
1930 72616 39061 28091
1931 76639 51831 45967
1932 91114 88593 113807
1933 100078 109004 144937
1934 82489 75500 99944
1935 96332 105919 131181
1936 83863 79539 79230
1937 59048 58362 45324
1938 71461 83733 92664
1939 66321 87948 82490
1940 71029 93218 81635
1941 88561 119823 115297
1942 108426 157223 151191
1943 109126 145374 149301
1944 99039 142786 115494
1945 111943 141175 87744
1946 110253 130138 87326
1947 134571 154838 115147
1948 134941 173128 110490
1949 155139 172869 106325
1950 151342 154647 102680
1951 137591 134729 87603
1952 139157 128100 68599
1953 129403 128654 68929
1954 143362 115188 73876
1955 121224 71367 45937
1956 109944 66287 36081
1957 104469 67099 41535
1958 118945 67337 47644
1959 99425 49554 26741
1960 90008 46762 27184
1961 88400 46236 24178
1962 83151 34783 17460
1963 91918 40360 23441
1964 71812 33680 12373
1965 54823 27958 5571
1966 57852 27143 3733
1967 62997 36604 15292
1968 53026 30577 11422
1969 51388 31042 14768
1970 56123 41960 35429
1971 57094 39571 34584
1972 48192 40585 27768
1973 48913 39357 25629
1974 63460 61288 49925
1975 79955 84940 72110
1976 73205 77291 46613
1977 82335 87773 43056
1978 91798 125107 53350
1979 97777 150647 50854
1980 107112 166470 46433
This completes the data with 50% stocks.
Have fun.
John R.
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:07 pm
by JWR1945
New TIPS at 1% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.7%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.7%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.8%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 7750 5216 7528
1922 7280 6058 6808
1923 6294 6420 6158
1924 5614 7029 6263
1925 4982 7072 5679
1926 4603 6261 5347
1927 4999 5427 5619
1928 4937 4660 4836
1929 4551 4039 4134
1930 4794 3962 4244
1931 5010 4294 4526
1932 5414 5604 5718
1933 5779 6260 6503
1934 4979 5408 5352
1935 5097 5989 5879
1936 4597 4946 4887
1937 4487 4397 4246
1938 5111 5139 5119
1939 5034 4925 4881
1940 5213 5021 4871
1941 5763 5859 5583
1942 6318 6526 6375
1943 6083 6233 6316
1944 5798 5921 5769
1945 5620 5543 5595
1946 5559 5270 5477
1947 6189 6017 6194
1948 6272 6361 6105
1949 6199 6064 5893
1950 6111 6238 5799
1951 5533 5792 5149
1952 5265 5344 4999
1953 5303 5055 4848
1954 5237 5059 5002
1955 4695 4367 4614
1956 4480 4037 4503
1957 4427 4139 4622
1958 4473 4277 4968
1959 4065 3962 4624
1960 3977 4122 4877
1961 3886 4276 4928
1962 3828 4162 4752
1963 3883 4350 5179
1964 3786 4323 4800
1965 3841 4388 4438
1966 3934 4376 4331
1967 4137 4712 4679
1968 4114 4766 4392
1969 4295 4757 4286
1970 4812 4985 4588
1971 4902 4995 4464
1972 4926 4948 4082
1973 5112 4773 3905
1974 5914 5512 4421
1975 6758 6500 4992
1976 6133 5616 4399
1977 6377 5274 4344
1978 7082 5761 4693
1979 7224 5724 4694
1980 7223 5500 4715
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 6412 7469 7887
1922 7294 7717 8186
1923 6742 7075 7405
1924 7150 7339 7756
1925 6881 6867 6942
1926 5988 6126 5862
1927 5735 5834 5640
1928 4813 4733 4615
1929 3898 3658 3373
1930 3949 3667 3474
1931 4387 4048 4013
1932 5813 5618 5742
1933 6729 6879 6619
1934 5390 5207 5028
1935 5834 5924 5508
1936 4570 4638 4170
1937 3952 3857 3605
1938 5052 4807 4604
1939 4668 4484 4401
1940 4835 4497 4779
1941 5852 5200 6248
1942 6600 6177 7637
1943 6061 5835 7413
1944 5596 5564 7369
1945 5203 5669 7558
1946 4882 5771 7336
1947 5797 7075 9518
1948 5878 7480 10644
1949 5875 7903 10385
1950 6421 8862 10221
1951 6171 7982 8878
1952 5894 7587 8301
1953 5864 7822 7758
1954 6406 8050 7775
1955 5730 6172 5867
1956 5293 5488 4963
1957 5505 5678 4691
1958 6257 6035 4919
1959 5270 4830 3901
1960 5069 4678 3715
1961 5028 4497 3611
1962 4730 3899 3303
1963 4847 3965 3369
1964 4332 3522 3073
1965 3997 3238 2914
1966 3792 3116 2824
1967 3857 3271 2945
1968 3600 3099 2839
1969 3487 3047 2801
1970 3652 3244 2818
1971 3588 3166 2774
1972 3441 3064 2762
1973 3325 2986 2640
1974 3734 3154 2309
1975 4311 3116 1679
1976 3753 2891 1730
1977 3697 2918 1349
1978 3875 2342 1044
1979 3646 1799 1176
1980 3229 1372 1372
More follows.
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:11 pm
by JWR1945
New TIPS at 1% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.3%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.3%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.4%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 5948 4712 6148
1922 5679 5142 5676
1923 5151 5308 5276
1924 4787 5601 5306
1925 4457 5601 4956
1926 4258 5158 4750
1927 4455 4726 4892
1928 4426 4326 4456
1929 4234 3994 4058
1930 4364 3959 4128
1931 4480 4141 4301
1932 4686 4841 4996
1933 4866 5183 5439
1934 4454 4719 4770
1935 4510 5028 5077
1936 4255 4471 4501
1937 4201 4182 4136
1938 4522 4595 4662
1939 4485 4482 4527
1940 4582 4544 4532
1941 4871 5015 4968
1942 5156 5387 5431
1943 5030 5218 5377
1944 4882 5042 5043
1945 4790 4831 4928
1946 4764 4685 4856
1947 5093 5097 5267
1948 5134 5275 5204
1949 5092 5100 5064
1950 5042 5180 4996
1951 4742 4928 4622
1952 4602 4681 4528
1953 4620 4525 4438
1954 4582 4520 4511
1955 4305 4154 4292
1956 4197 3981 4226
1957 4170 4032 4287
1958 4192 4100 4467
1959 3984 3934 4276
1960 3939 4013 4407
1961 3893 4090 4438
1962 3864 4031 4345
1963 3891 4128 4580
1964 3842 4113 4383
1965 3869 4147 4200
1966 3916 4144 4151
1967 4020 4326 4364
1968 4009 4359 4216
1969 4101 4364 4172
1970 4365 4505 4374
1971 4414 4520 4315
1972 4429 4506 4102
1973 4530 4426 4007
1974 4953 4866 4343
1975 5392 5436 4698
1976 5069 4933 4321
1977 5204 4750 4283
1978 5578 5031 4489
1979 5654 5003 4475
1980 5653 4864 4469
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 5640 6524 7145
1922 6114 6616 7261
1923 5735 6144 6642
1924 5946 6281 6846
1925 5756 5950 6236
1926 5205 5446 5451
1927 5061 5265 5292
1928 4510 4554 4572
1929 3957 3849 3703
1930 4000 3874 3785
1931 4283 4144 4175
1932 5180 5196 5384
1933 5741 6010 5965
1934 4898 4882 4835
1935 5179 5343 5153
1936 4389 4483 4232
1937 4007 3975 3843
1938 4703 4611 4525
1939 4465 4397 4378
1940 4571 4410 4624
1941 5212 4872 5602
1942 5663 5479 6495
1943 5309 5231 6296
1944 5004 5032 6223
1945 4753 5070 6315
1946 4559 5119 6174
1947 5095 5909 7581
1948 5124 6124 8276
1949 5097 6337 8097
1950 5385 6884 8023
1951 5216 6338 7159
1952 5043 6090 6802
1953 5014 6220 6486
1954 5299 6364 6527
1955 4910 5265 5285
1956 4666 4866 4705
1957 4787 5001 4562
1958 5208 5252 4741
1959 4655 4515 4049
1960 4564 4444 3940
1961 4553 4352 3879
1962 4390 3995 3671
1963 4487 4061 3731
1964 4195 3782 3528
1965 4008 3607 3422
1966 3899 3534 3367
1967 3970 3652 3459
1968 3821 3543 3388
1969 3763 3514 3365
1970 3886 3655 3381
1971 3851 3605 3350
1972 3758 3537 3342
1973 3688 3486 3259
1974 3964 3602 3034
1975 4332 3573 2625
1976 3960 3422 2680
1977 3918 3437 2454
1978 4022 3077 2286
1979 3871 2754 2395
1980 3613 2518 2538
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 232067 247485 316952
1922 151600 188092 315778
1923 123899 160172 270548
1924 174003 186405 280406
1925 132071 169687 304048
1926 154641 172446 282722
1927 172715 121438 254592
1928 94776 72213 133345
1929 66718 34566 47864
1930 73932 43015 63518
1931 82176 70932 123930
1932 109653 158673 361411
1933 122856 195986 413477
1934 92804 117516 267143
1935 118641 194164 379588
1936 96564 130727 206318
1937 55187 81351 100226
1938 78041 148373 263767
1939 69605 158977 224839
1940 77263 169126 206213
1941 107452 229875 289616
1942 148695 344728 419934
1943 150804 307580 423617
1944 129820 299830 288720
1945 154894 293153 189777
1946 146731 244240 175505
1947 204868 321872 267334
1948 206960 386824 257651
1949 254875 386053 250206
1950 239300 308977 223826
1951 207357 255982 190454
1952 211389 241786 140814
1953 187332 242453 145354
1954 218280 200996 162901
1955 170882 100320 95425
1956 146652 91387 73435
1957 134343 93022 89295
1958 164386 93481 105247
1959 126070 62003 58153
1960 107266 57278 60093
1961 104607 57541 52765
1962 95381 37665 38633
1963 111577 47859 52909
1964 75644 36881 27502
1965 49083 27052 10267
1966 53109 24795 3986
1967 61442 41781 33238
1968 46751 30442 21071
1969 44476 30258 25153
1970 52376 52304 88274
1971 54373 48480 84909
1972 41592 49200 59088
1973 41726 43340 41597
1974 65334 90697 98291
1975 97349 152481 156496
1976 85339 135610 88232
1977 101322 159973 73151
1978 119269 261135 87144
1979 129292 329479 73888
1980 147856 375781 62326
This completes the 80% stock data.
Have fun.
John R.
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:13 pm
by JWR1945
New TIPS at 1% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.8%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.8%.
There were three failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.9%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 7288 4481 5984
1922 6902 5147 5671
1923 6132 5682 5251
1924 5396 6188 5274
1925 4833 6481 4960
1926 4478 5977 4810
1927 4864 5291 5150
1928 5057 4659 4752
1929 4910 4227 4346
1930 5135 4061 4385
1931 5255 4276 4507
1932 5295 5153 5117
1933 5465 5765 5704
1934 4961 5352 5084
1935 4931 5763 5392
1936 4678 5080 4849
1937 4746 4645 4406
1938 5180 5050 4829
1939 5213 4937 4656
1940 5421 5039 4593
1941 5854 5712 4985
1942 6092 6035 5251
1943 5900 5766 5167
1944 5755 5536 4829
1945 5686 5228 4738
1946 5869 5122 4829
1947 6155 5355 5024
1948 6037 5416 4821
1949 5904 5144 4688
1950 5854 5315 4701
1951 5377 5083 4348
1952 5114 4790 4274
1953 5126 4573 4198
1954 4973 4535 4271
1955 4634 4138 4157
1956 4520 3925 4189
1957 4450 3992 4292
1958 4386 4034 4487
1959 4104 3865 4380
1960 4013 4013 4667
1961 3908 4164 4766
1962 3880 4131 4738
1963 3892 4268 5135
1964 3834 4326 4948
1965 3923 4506 4686
1966 4052 4577 4638
1967 4211 4876 4932
1968 4226 5054 4726
1969 4438 5139 4641
1970 4923 5261 4794
1971 5059 5270 4645
1972 5174 5320 4272
1973 5519 5247 4120
1974 6188 5735 4366
1975 6626 6221 4519
1976 6264 5610 4147
1977 6578 5245 4102
1978 7074 5431 4244
1979 7222 5361 4234
1980 7168 5092 4221
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 4815 5275 5067
1922 5569 5599 5480
1923 5496 5404 5219
1924 5780 5540 5305
1925 5809 5439 4986
1926 5268 5058 4410
1927 5113 4933 4295
1928 4571 4303 3822
1929 4012 3662 3224
1930 3970 3546 3190
1931 4211 3665 3376
1932 4937 4299 4001
1933 5550 4969 4438
1934 4814 4211 3858
1935 4940 4473 4004
1936 4226 3936 3487
1937 3838 3555 3251
1938 4306 3871 3581
1939 4075 3738 3519
1940 4154 3741 3698
1941 4692 4054 4372
1942 4923 4384 4853
1943 4608 4229 4786
1944 4407 4150 4869
1945 4224 4257 5106
1946 4157 4518 5366
1947 4468 4973 6197
1948 4417 5075 6658
1949 4415 5323 6657
1950 4808 6097 6881
1951 4789 5824 6276
1952 4696 5717 6027
1953 4740 6025 5813
1954 5076 6234 5783
1955 4927 5267 4801
1956 4808 4941 4325
1957 5017 5115 4114
1958 5547 5278 4142
1959 5039 4536 3564
1960 4909 4426 3434
1961 4886 4271 3346
1962 4752 3833 3180
1963 4816 3811 3197
1964 4441 3501 3028
1965 4193 3293 2942
1966 4031 3202 2889
1967 3972 3271 2944
1968 3746 3155 2890
1969 3634 3114 2871
1970 3657 3200 2869
1971 3570 3128 2839
1972 3467 3067 2828
1973 3397 3029 2769
1974 3589 3090 2606
1975 3814 3024 2329
1976 3504 2905 2311
1977 3463 2908 2072
1978 3518 2621 1855
1979 3387 2318 1820
1980 3128 2052 1870
More data with 50% stocks follow.
Have fun.
John R.
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:19 pm
by JWR1945
New TIPS at 1% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 1% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.4%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.4%.
There were two failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.5%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 5746 4339 5266
1922 5526 4683 5048
1923 5114 4951 4790
1924 4723 5193 4781
1925 4429 5330 4592
1926 4244 5051 4493
1927 4436 4698 4673
1928 4536 4372 4454
1929 4467 4146 4229
1930 4589 4063 4258
1931 4655 4181 4337
1932 4672 4643 4689
1933 4753 4962 5020
1934 4493 4734 4661
1935 4475 4951 4839
1936 4346 4588 4525
1937 4383 4365 4279
1938 4606 4593 4537
1939 4626 4537 4444
1940 4738 4602 4419
1941 4965 4981 4661
1942 5086 5157 4812
1943 4984 5003 4750
1944 4908 4875 4546
1945 4873 4705 4485
1946 4973 4654 4537
1947 5122 4780 4645
1948 5059 4804 4521
1949 4987 4648 4433
1950 4958 4731 4432
1951 4710 4597 4228
1952 4573 4435 4179
1953 4578 4318 4133
1954 4496 4292 4165
1955 4324 4082 4095
1956 4266 3972 4107
1957 4231 4004 4159
1958 4197 4023 4258
1959 4054 3933 4193
1960 4007 4006 4341
1961 3954 4081 4394
1962 3940 4064 4381
1963 3945 4134 4597
1964 3916 4162 4504
1965 3960 4255 4378
1966 4026 4297 4366
1967 4106 4459 4549
1968 4115 4557 4452
1969 4223 4615 4425
1970 4471 4700 4540
1971 4543 4717 4468
1972 4606 4759 4264
1973 4791 4741 4187
1974 5144 5039 4354
1975 5371 5319 4446
1976 5186 4973 4211
1977 5358 4778 4180
1978 5621 4885 4259
1979 5700 4839 4243
1980 5671 4678 4222
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 4663 5070 5106
1922 5084 5237 5341
1923 5011 5080 5118
1924 5153 5142 5147
1925 5148 5060 4903
1926 4812 4795 4485
1927 4727 4719 4405
1928 4410 4320 4079
1929 4079 3912 3670
1930 4065 3852 3655
1931 4222 3943 3792
1932 4674 4362 4221
1933 5047 4792 4510
1934 4588 4285 4097
1935 4669 4450 4191
1936 4230 4093 3837
1937 3996 3849 3677
1938 4293 4063 3902
1939 4154 3976 3858
1940 4206 3982 3976
1941 4545 4188 4424
1942 4677 4387 4724
1943 4472 4273 4654
1944 4338 4209 4683
1945 4221 4260 4817
1946 4182 4415 4987
1947 4359 4683 5512
1948 4317 4725 5780
1949 4301 4847 5759
1950 4511 5287 5916
1951 4483 5107 5522
1952 4418 5028 5362
1953 4433 5196 5243
1954 4605 5316 5238
1955 4509 4756 4605
1956 4440 4571 4310
1957 4556 4687 4203
1958 4845 4808 4240
1959 4560 4362 3857
1960 4507 4316 3785
1961 4505 4239 3735
1962 4437 3988 3628
1963 4501 3997 3651
1964 4296 3808 3539
1965 4167 3687 3484
1966 4089 3638 3455
1967 4084 3695 3499
1968 3959 3624 3463
1969 3903 3604 3451
1970 3933 3667 3449
1971 3883 3621 3428
1972 3820 3580 3421
1973 3781 3556 3376
1974 3912 3597 3261
1975 4050 3548 3082
1976 3843 3468 3080
1977 3813 3469 2938
1978 3841 3289 2821
1979 3754 3108 2820
1980 3593 2962 2871
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 146430 132929 123118
1922 115869 117335 133870
1923 101941 105629 120231
1924 128227 116979 124351
1925 108067 110319 131439
1926 119508 108232 115998
1927 129280 87253 108754
1928 88280 60026 63549
1929 70003 36347 25668
1930 73368 39075 25788
1931 77640 52524 45880
1932 93087 92622 123268
1933 102768 115539 160477
1934 84298 79002 108472
1935 98633 111480 143908
1936 85293 82078 84082
1937 59669 58733 45332
1938 72683 86711 99162
1939 67265 90507 87426
1940 72049 96329 87257
1941 90390 126067 126771
1942 110957 166505 167757
1943 111530 153697 165210
1944 101095 150567 127490
1945 114077 148625 96744
1946 112503 137430 96643
1947 137736 164564 128468
1948 138203 184080 123420
1949 158827 183828 118779
1950 155373 165238 115354
1951 141097 143570 98042
1952 142557 136204 76566
1953 132680 136842 76940
1954 147133 122837 82650
1955 124052 75602 50670
1956 112362 69841 39280
1957 106920 70803 45331
1958 121953 71372 52488
1959 101611 51882 28328
1960 92061 48909 28684
1961 90417 48241 25302
1962 84897 35946 17219
1963 93975 41868 24036
1964 73285 34364 11093
1965 55852 28077 3248
1966 58789 26946 592
1967 64122 36901 13339
1968 53853 30398 8209
1969 52104 30748 11223
1970 57010 42388 34328
1971 57867 39800 33316
1972 48702 40388 25861
1973 49330 39172 24238
1974 64434 63134 52830
1975 81557 88935 78705
1976 74283 79884 49852
1977 83550 90940 46323
1978 93645 131364 58769
1979 99943 158931 56485
1980 109541 175953 51761
This completes the data with 50% stocks.
Have fun.
John R.
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:22 pm
by JWR1945
New TIPS at 2% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 2.8%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 2.8%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 2.9%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 7860 5334 7699
1922 7390 6189 6973
1923 6401 6556 6314
1924 5719 7171 6422
1925 5087 7214 5829
1926 4708 6392 5489
1927 5108 5550 5766
1928 5045 4775 4966
1929 4657 4146 4245
1930 4899 4067 4356
1931 5115 4403 4643
1932 5519 5727 5862
1933 5887 6396 6667
1934 5085 5532 5491
1935 5204 6119 6030
1936 4702 5063 5013
1937 4592 4505 4356
1938 5218 5257 5247
1939 5140 5039 5002
1940 5320 5136 4992
1941 5871 5983 5721
1942 6428 6659 6529
1943 6192 6362 6469
1944 5907 6046 5912
1945 5728 5663 5734
1946 5667 5388 5613
1947 6298 6143 6346
1948 6381 6491 6258
1949 6307 6192 6043
1950 6220 6369 5950
1951 5640 5918 5288
1952 5372 5465 5136
1953 5410 5176 4983
1954 5344 5180 5141
1955 4800 4481 4745
1956 4585 4148 4631
1957 4531 4251 4753
1958 4578 4391 5106
1959 4169 4072 4753
1960 4080 4235 5011
1961 3989 4390 5063
1962 3931 4274 4882
1963 3986 4465 5317
1964 3889 4436 4929
1965 3944 4502 4558
1966 4037 4489 4448
1967 4242 4828 4802
1968 4218 4881 4507
1969 4400 4871 4398
1970 4919 5102 4705
1971 5009 5110 4577
1972 5032 5061 4189
1973 5218 4882 4008
1974 6023 5630 4536
1975 6870 6629 5122
1976 6242 5734 4516
1977 6486 5389 4461
1978 7193 5882 4819
1979 7336 5847 4822
1980 7335 5621 4843
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 6600 7724 8209
1922 7508 7990 8530
1923 6944 7324 7712
1924 7365 7601 8083
1925 7088 7112 7230
1926 6166 6338 6094
1927 5907 6036 5861
1928 4955 4887 4781
1929 4008 3763 3474
1930 4058 3773 3576
1931 4508 4169 4139
1932 5981 5803 5958
1933 6928 7118 6885
1934 5545 5377 5214
1935 6004 6123 5720
1936 4700 4781 4316
1937 4061 3968 3719
1938 5193 4959 4768
1939 4797 4624 4553
1940 4968 4638 4946
1941 6016 5372 6487
1942 6788 6388 7946
1943 6236 6035 7709
1944 5759 5753 7661
1945 5355 5860 7858
1946 5027 5964 7626
1947 5970 7321 9919
1948 6056 7743 11099
1949 6054 8182 10832
1950 6617 9185 10672
1951 6360 8270 9262
1952 6075 7859 8657
1953 6044 8103 8091
1954 6603 8344 8113
1955 5906 6391 6107
1956 5455 5678 5158
1957 5673 5876 4876
1958 6448 6250 5118
1959 5428 4994 4047
1960 5223 4836 3854
1961 5180 4648 3745
1962 4870 4028 3421
1963 4992 4097 3490
1964 4460 3637 3179
1965 4113 3342 3012
1966 3900 3214 2918
1967 3970 3376 3046
1968 3705 3198 2936
1969 3589 3144 2898
1970 3761 3349 2919
1971 3695 3269 2874
1972 3543 3164 2861
1973 3424 3084 2741
1974 3847 3262 2397
1975 4442 3226 1738
1976 3869 2995 1798
1977 3813 3023 1405
1978 3998 2430 1078
1979 3765 1868 1213
1980 3339 1426 1415
More follows.
John R.
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:26 pm
by JWR1945
New TIPS at 2% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 80%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 20%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.4%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.4%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.5%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 6053 4823 6293
1922 5784 5260 5815
1923 5255 5428 5409
1924 4890 5724 5441
1925 4559 5724 5086
1926 4361 5275 4875
1927 4560 4839 5019
1928 4531 4434 4573
1929 4337 4098 4166
1930 4467 4063 4236
1931 4582 4246 4412
1932 4789 4954 5122
1933 4970 5302 5577
1934 4557 4832 4893
1935 4614 5144 5207
1936 4358 4580 4616
1937 4304 4287 4243
1938 4626 4705 4780
1939 4589 4590 4641
1940 4686 4652 4647
1941 4975 5130 5092
1942 5261 5505 5565
1943 5135 5335 5509
1944 4986 5156 5169
1945 4895 4943 5051
1946 4868 4795 4978
1947 5198 5211 5397
1948 5238 5392 5335
1949 5197 5216 5192
1950 5147 5297 5125
1951 4845 5042 4744
1952 4706 4793 4648
1953 4723 4636 4557
1954 4686 4631 4632
1955 4408 4261 4408
1956 4299 4086 4340
1957 4272 4138 4404
1958 4294 4208 4587
1959 4086 4039 4391
1960 4041 4120 4526
1961 3995 4197 4556
1962 3965 4137 4462
1963 3993 4236 4701
1964 3943 4220 4499
1965 3971 4254 4311
1966 4018 4251 4261
1967 4122 4435 4477
1968 4111 4467 4326
1969 4204 4472 4280
1970 4469 4615 4486
1971 4517 4629 4425
1972 4532 4613 4208
1973 4634 4532 4111
1974 5058 4977 4455
1975 5498 5554 4818
1976 5174 5045 4434
1977 5309 4860 4395
1978 5684 5144 4606
1979 5761 5116 4593
1980 5759 4976 4588
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 5799 6738 7422
1922 6289 6837 7549
1923 5900 6348 6900
1924 6118 6492 7116
1925 5923 6148 6475
1926 5353 5622 5650
1927 5206 5435 5483
1928 4637 4693 4725
1929 4065 3957 3810
1930 4108 3982 3893
1931 4398 4263 4301
1932 5325 5358 5572
1933 5905 6206 6186
1934 5035 5032 4998
1935 5325 5511 5333
1936 4510 4615 4366
1937 4114 4085 3955
1938 4831 4749 4672
1939 4586 4525 4517
1940 4694 4539 4773
1941 5355 5022 5800
1942 5820 5653 6738
1943 5458 5396 6529
1944 5143 5190 6451
1945 4886 5228 6547
1946 4688 5279 6400
1947 5240 6101 7878
1948 5271 6323 8608
1949 5243 6546 8423
1950 5541 7119 8352
1951 5367 6551 7444
1952 5189 6292 7071
1953 5159 6428 6741
1954 5453 6580 6787
1955 5052 5437 5480
1956 4800 5021 4871
1957 4925 5162 4722
1958 5359 5424 4911
1959 4788 4656 4184
1960 4695 4582 4069
1961 4683 4487 4005
1962 4514 4116 3787
1963 4615 4185 3849
1964 4312 3894 3636
1965 4119 3712 3524
1966 4006 3636 3466
1967 4081 3758 3563
1968 3927 3645 3489
1969 3866 3615 3465
1970 3995 3762 3483
1971 3958 3711 3451
1972 3862 3639 3443
1973 3790 3587 3359
1974 4075 3709 3124
1975 4455 3681 2694
1976 4073 3525 2755
1977 4030 3541 2522
1978 4138 3169 2343
1979 3984 2834 2455
1980 3719 2589 2603
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 234795 254958 333297
1922 153624 194047 332382
1923 125549 165194 284727
1924 176304 192328 295285
1925 133854 175030 320046
1926 156551 177594 297189
1927 174811 125114 267565
1928 95846 74142 139603
1929 67194 35015 48714
1930 74436 43546 64783
1931 82876 72254 128294
1932 110999 163118 378639
1933 124536 201992 434410
1934 93901 120712 279644
1935 120132 199730 398060
1936 97499 133652 214928
1937 55560 82356 102971
1938 78847 151926 275222
1939 70232 162377 234018
1940 77944 172863 214885
1941 108627 236051 303366
1942 150486 354685 440795
1943 152565 316403 444482
1944 131280 308174 302921
1945 156504 301118 199165
1946 148206 250824 184140
1947 207241 331376 281113
1948 209477 398410 271177
1949 257935 397710 263455
1950 242353 318692 235943
1951 209953 263926 200742
1952 213975 249208 148494
1953 189697 249926 153340
1954 221112 207438 171967
1955 172931 103442 100709
1956 148324 94089 77465
1957 135959 95818 94208
1958 166480 96449 111134
1959 127536 63798 61324
1960 108560 58931 63342
1961 105879 59180 55600
1962 96472 38649 40565
1963 112909 49164 55613
1964 76513 37705 28654
1965 49623 27488 10362
1966 53621 25039 3493
1967 62081 42478 34141
1968 47188 30739 20901
1969 44847 30450 24686
1970 52870 53150 90893
1971 54834 49199 87253
1972 41884 49662 60136
1973 41939 43584 42048
1974 65907 92606 102317
1975 98437 156608 164105
1976 86106 138735 92223
1977 102208 163683 76555
1978 120568 268128 91639
1979 130768 338559 77858
1980 149569 386307 65787
This completes the 80% stock data.
Have fun.
John R.
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:28 pm
by JWR1945
New TIPS at 2% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.50 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.0%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.0%.
There were three failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.1%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 7514 4716 6310
1922 7128 5409 5993
1923 6352 5961 5559
1924 5610 6477 5585
1925 5045 6776 5260
1926 4690 6253 5100
1927 5085 5551 5456
1928 5282 4903 5037
1929 5129 4456 4603
1930 5353 4285 4639
1931 5470 4506 4766
1932 5508 5408 5412
1933 5684 6045 6038
1934 5177 5617 5383
1935 5149 6040 5709
1936 4894 5332 5131
1937 4962 4883 4660
1938 5400 5300 5107
1939 5433 5183 4923
1940 5641 5287 4858
1941 6076 5981 5273
1942 6316 6313 5554
1943 6124 6036 5466
1944 5979 5799 5112
1945 5910 5482 5016
1946 6094 5375 5112
1947 6380 5614 5318
1948 6260 5677 5108
1949 6127 5400 4969
1950 6077 5577 4986
1951 5595 5338 4617
1952 5330 5037 4539
1953 5344 4816 4462
1954 5189 4778 4539
1955 4848 4370 4419
1956 4733 4152 4451
1957 4662 4221 4560
1958 4598 4265 4764
1959 4314 4091 4650
1960 4222 4243 4954
1961 4116 4398 5056
1962 4088 4364 5024
1963 4101 4505 5439
1964 4042 4564 5240
1965 4132 4749 4964
1966 4263 4821 4910
1967 4423 5128 5219
1968 4437 5307 4999
1969 4651 5393 4907
1970 5143 5520 5069
1971 5279 5526 4909
1972 5395 5574 4519
1973 5741 5497 4360
1974 6415 6000 4622
1975 6857 6500 4787
1976 6491 5868 4395
1977 6807 5494 4349
1978 7307 5688 4501
1979 7456 5618 4492
1980 7401 5344 4480
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 5144 5696 5547
1922 5957 6064 6022
1923 5884 5854 5731
1924 6190 6009 5831
1925 6220 5900 5472
1926 5633 5474 4817
1927 5469 5336 4688
1928 4884 4638 4151
1929 4277 3926 3471
1930 4228 3797 3428
1931 4484 3928 3636
1932 5270 4629 4342
1933 5939 5375 4843
1934 5143 4538 4185
1935 5281 4826 4351
1936 4509 4229 3764
1937 4088 3806 3495
1938 4592 4158 3868
1939 4345 4010 3797
1940 4428 4014 3998
1941 5008 4364 4760
1942 5259 4728 5305
1943 4923 4559 5227
1944 4708 4472 5319
1945 4512 4588 5588
1946 4444 4876 5886
1947 4778 5378 6826
1948 4725 5489 7345
1949 4724 5762 7346
1950 5150 6626 7616
1951 5128 6324 6930
1952 5027 6202 6652
1953 5074 6541 6415
1954 5438 6775 6386
1955 5277 5710 5272
1956 5147 5348 4732
1957 5371 5543 4494
1958 5941 5726 4528
1959 5390 4904 3872
1960 5253 4783 3724
1961 5226 4611 3625
1962 5079 4128 3434
1963 5150 4105 3453
1964 4743 3762 3260
1965 4474 3533 3161
1966 4297 3432 3101
1967 4238 3508 3162
1968 3994 3380 3099
1969 3874 3334 3077
1970 3901 3429 3075
1971 3807 3350 3043
1972 3696 3282 3030
1973 3622 3242 2966
1974 3831 3311 2783
1975 4074 3242 2469
1976 3742 3112 2455
1977 3699 3117 2192
1978 3761 2804 1944
1979 3622 2470 1900
1980 3346 2178 1954
More data with 50% stocks follow.
Have fun.
John R.
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 2:33 pm
by JWR1945
New TIPS at 2% Interest
Conditions
1921-1980
$100000 initial balance
Gummy Algorithm 1 is set for Yes (cell B24 equals 1)
Gummy's Multiplier G1 = 0.25 in cell B25
Gummy's Offset is (2.5) or minus 2.5% in cell B17
Stocks = 50%
TIPS at a 2% interest rate = 50%
Withdrawal Rate in cell B9 was set at 3.6%.
There were no failures at 30 years with B9 set at 3.6%.
There was one failure at 30 years with B9 set at 3.7%.
With Rebalancing
Five Year Rolling Averages
Year, At Year 5, At Year 10, At Year 15
Code: Select all
1921 5961 4560 5546
1922 5740 4918 5321
1923 5324 5195 5055
1924 4930 5442 5046
1925 4635 5581 4850
1926 4450 5291 4745
1927 4646 4930 4934
1928 4749 4596 4703
1929 4677 4362 4462
1930 4798 4277 4491
1931 4863 4397 4574
1932 4879 4874 4946
1933 4963 5205 5299
1934 4702 4970 4920
1935 4683 5192 5108
1936 4554 4817 4774
1937 4591 4586 4512
1938 4817 4821 4785
1939 4837 4763 4686
1940 4949 4830 4659
1941 5177 5220 4916
1942 5299 5402 5076
1943 5196 5243 5010
1944 5120 5111 4796
1945 5086 4936 4732
1946 5186 4883 4787
1947 5336 5013 4900
1948 5271 5039 4772
1949 5199 4879 4679
1950 5170 4965 4680
1951 4920 4826 4467
1952 4781 4660 4415
1953 4787 4541 4368
1954 4705 4515 4402
1955 4531 4299 4328
1956 4473 4185 4340
1957 4437 4219 4395
1958 4403 4239 4499
1959 4258 4146 4430
1960 4212 4222 4586
1961 4158 4298 4642
1962 4144 4281 4626
1963 4150 4353 4853
1964 4120 4382 4754
1965 4165 4477 4622
1966 4231 4520 4607
1967 4313 4686 4800
1968 4321 4786 4697
1969 4430 4844 4667
1970 4681 4933 4788
1971 4753 4948 4710
1972 4816 4990 4496
1973 5002 4971 4416
1974 5359 5278 4593
1975 5587 5566 4691
1976 5400 5209 4444
1977 5573 5008 4411
1978 5839 5119 4496
1979 5919 5074 4481
1980 5888 4909 4459
Year, At Year 20, At Year 25, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 4951 5434 5538
1922 5407 5624 5808
1923 5331 5454 5557
1924 5484 5525 5592
1925 5479 5436 5315
1926 5113 5141 4839
1927 5023 5057 4748
1928 4681 4615 4380
1929 4322 4161 3913
1930 4305 4093 3893
1931 4473 4193 4046
1932 4961 4657 4530
1933 5367 5135 4860
1934 4872 4574 4391
1935 4960 4756 4496
1936 4484 4359 4095
1937 4230 4087 3913
1938 4550 4325 4167
1939 4401 4227 4116
1940 4456 4234 4249
1941 4822 4463 4757
1942 4965 4683 5098
1943 4746 4558 5017
1944 4601 4488 5051
1945 4475 4544 5205
1946 4436 4716 5401
1947 4626 5012 5996
1948 4582 5056 6299
1949 4565 5192 6277
1950 4793 5685 6464
1951 4762 5486 6018
1952 4692 5397 5841
1953 4708 5583 5709
1954 4894 5718 5705
1955 4791 5101 4988
1956 4717 4895 4652
1957 4841 5027 4528
1958 5153 5162 4571
1959 4844 4667 4134
1960 4788 4616 4051
1961 4786 4531 3994
1962 4712 4252 3870
1963 4782 4263 3895
1964 4559 4052 3766
1965 4418 3917 3703
1966 4333 3863 3668
1967 4329 3925 3716
1968 4194 3846 3674
1969 4133 3823 3659
1970 4166 3893 3656
1971 4113 3841 3632
1972 4044 3796 3624
1973 4003 3769 3572
1974 4144 3814 3441
1975 4293 3761 3237
1976 4071 3673 3237
1977 4039 3675 3079
1978 4070 3476 2945
1979 3977 3277 2942
1980 3805 3115 2999
Balances
Year, At Year 10, At Year 20, At Year 30
Code: Select all
1921 151225 144035 142422
1922 120040 127577 154985
1923 105653 114909 139467
1924 132853 127326 144305
1925 112056 120132 152710
1926 123691 117648 135147
1927 133779 94960 126787
1928 91296 65200 74682
1929 72110 39189 31120
1930 75468 41964 30987
1931 79954 56507 53780
1932 96271 100358 142446
1933 106582 125690 185209
1934 87246 85731 125486
1935 102156 121029 166055
1936 88052 88634 97229
1937 61431 62919 52441
1938 75044 93519 113985
1939 69353 97325 100343
1940 74273 103636 100080
1941 93446 136373 145544
1942 114812 180366 192547
1943 115321 166406 189606
1944 104481 162851 146501
1945 117756 160630 111379
1946 116218 148750 111440
1947 142434 178429 148054
1948 142958 199556 142394
1949 164212 199322 137265
1950 160913 179636 133586
1951 146070 156028 113892
1952 147497 147963 89306
1953 137372 148725 89975
1954 152394 133732 96774
1955 128332 82308 60070
1956 116182 75982 47115
1957 110656 77097 54305
1958 126307 77857 62521
1959 105098 56520 34815
1960 95288 53320 35326
1961 93595 52599 31325
1962 87815 39187 22198
1963 97257 45672 29969
1964 75817 37405 15040
1965 57774 30491 5820
1966 60730 29184 2848
1967 66282 39981 17496
1968 55625 32821 11539
1969 53777 33121 14885
1970 58881 45746 41136
1971 59690 42858 39557
1972 50177 43299 30596
1973 50764 41940 28429
1974 66489 68112 61151
1975 84305 96280 90857
1976 76582 86101 57680
1977 86104 98001 53672
1978 96751 142015 68126
1979 103357 171987 65648
1980 113292 190438 60349
This completes the data with 50% stocks.
Have fun.
John R.