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stock market return projection I have separated this post from the Mean Reversion Equivalence thread. Many relevant observations and comments started there. But they digressed from the original purpose of that thread, which was to praise raddr's Monte Carlo model. This discussion is both simple and...

priority urgent priority If you are leaving the Motley Fool on St. Valentine's Day in spite of hocus's generous offer, go the Speakers Corner / Retire Early Home Page immediately. On the line that says Threaded/Unthreaded, Author, RECS, date and number: click on RECS. Read all of hocus's most recom...

hocus Or are you saying that intercst thought he knew that the correct answer was somewhere between 70 percent stocks and 90 percent stocks...? That is what I am saying. At one time he had a mathematics problem to solve and he calculated an answer. The 74% number was his new discovery. I agree that...

This is a little silliness. But I think that it gets very close to the truth. hocus It gets very confusing comparing my approach to the intercst approach because we seem to have started with entirely different goals in mind. My goal was to determine the investment allocation that would permit a reas...

peteyperson I understand about your comment about having limited time. That is why you should want to retire! hocus's My Plan post is on the Motley Fool's Speakers Corner/Retire Early Home Page discussion board. You can get to it in at least two ways: use the RECS button on the line with Threaded/U...

Welcome peteyperson Hocus , to live off the investment return less inflation and not touch the principle was intercst's philosophy too, no? No. intercst's philosophy is based on being able to run out of assets, but not before the end of your planned portfolio lifespan. He always sells stock. In addi...

more about hocus's puzzle From BenSolar: PS I don't really have a clue what will happen, but valuations sure are still high. Since I also fall into the don't have a clue category, I can say anything with impunity. I think that there is now a core group of middle class investors that will stay in th...

hocus

Still.... My primary motives here are not especially noble ones. My primary motives are self-interested ones.

You have said almost all of this before...but never so eloquently.

Have fun.

John R.

wanderer trust me...you don't want what is posted over there over here. Actually, hocus's original post (the one linked to at the beginning of this thread) is worth seeing. Otherwise... Have fun. John R.

therealchips asks: How much will their total revenues drop when new higher fees kick in and participants scatter? If I understand it correctly, the Motley Fool's discussion boards have always operated at a loss...or, at best, at a very low profit margin...fee or no fee. TMFBogey is my source. He po...

raddr just wrote: I just visited over there. It looks like the REHP may implode when the new fee kicks in. The emperor himself is apparently leaving as is another of the main agitators. I posted this at the Town Center on the hocus makes a gutsy offer thread within the last week: What is really int...

For those at the Motley Fool who asked who hocus means by WE, I just identified myself as part of that group. I have seen it again and again. But it is still hard to believe it. Telegraph insisted on being obnoxious. Why? I do not know. I doubt that it is worthwhile for me to know. Have fun. John R.

hocus's puzzle On the The purpose of SWR analysis thread, hocus has asked the question: Since there are both a buyer and a seller for each share of stock held, where does the other side of each sale come from? As the middle class has moved into and out of the stock market over time, pushing prices ...

Part of it is middle class investors: those who have been in the market before prices went up and those who have stayed in the market when prices have come down. I think that it is best to focus on the money that goes into the market or comes out of it...as opposed to the number of shares. When mon...

FMO Not a single public response to Hocus's generous offer so far. Amazing. The real class of TMF. ElSupremo What he should do is invite all those folks over here. They'd be better off and he could put that money toward retirement. What is really interesting is the context of hocus's offer. intercs...

This morning, hocus has offered to pay the $30 renewal fee to anyone on the Motley Fool's Speaker's Corner/Retire Early Home Page (REHP) discussion board who plans to leave it simply because it will not provide him with $30s worth of a learning experience. The person must have posted at least once a...

More semantics On the How do we handle dividends? thread, hocus made an important distinction that I think is worth noting: The study is based on the Shiller data, which does not reveal how individual stock investors fared. The Shiller data shows how the stock fared, not how investors in the stock ...

SWR Semantics There is a minor semantics argument about the definition of the term Safe Withdrawal Rate on the How do we handle dividends? thread. It has produced some really good comments such as FMO's list of six limitations related to implementing the Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Rate study. How...

The purpose of SWR analysis In the How do we handle dividends? thread, hocus made a very interesting comment: I believe that you are right that high-dividend stocks have (at least sometimes) a higher safe withdrawal rate than S&P 500 stocks. I believe that the problem you are having analyzing th...

From raddr Isn't galeno the same genius that forked over a wad of money to two Costa Rican dudes named "The Brothers" who promised risk-free income of 30% per year and then - surprise - ran off with the money? Anyone dumb enough to do that should have their comments about this board or any...