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there is a whole board culture at tmf of discovering past associations and attempting to predict the future on that basis this is my favorite web page dubunking the dumb 4 strategy http://www.investorhome.com/dogs.htm Sharpe (William i.e. the nobel Laureate)makes the point that on one hand, if you s...

Mike (on the swr board): Because investor newbies who chance upon the board may misinterpret what they are reading, I wonder if a sticky post at the top carefully worded to explain things to newbies might help to avoid actions by them based upon incomplete understanding. Most of the regulars who pos...

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as someone said Thursday: of course an unreasonable person could invent some reason to exclude the post 1980 data (and the pre 1921 data or whatever else didn't "fit") http://nofeeboards.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=19540#p19540 and jwr did make a case for excluding the 90s data in the defen...

from his defense of switching post: In our recommendations we have repeatedly advised people not to depend on numbers alone. Rather, we have advised people to look for cause and effect. We have searched out sensitivities to reduce our dependence on the numbers themselves. some of us (e.g. me) tend t...

SG very interesting, I think the original idea was to force the data to fit a line. Good point about data application to data outside the studied range. I think intercst was criticized for this on the swr board.

nice post and good use of the post 1980 data (excluded from the usual historical 30 year series) this would certainly make a reasonable person cautious about blindly applying past strategies to the future of course an unreasonable person could invent some reason to exclude the post 1980 data :lol:(a...

I would like to see demographics added to the model at a minimum, but finding the relevent data is not easy. wrt unprecedented current and future demographic shifts I think it is going to be hard to find data :lol: seriously, I favor lower lt returns but I think it is dangerous to blindly apply pas...

we can hope but experience suggests otherwise

Hi petey, I can't make out what point hocus might be trying to make in the post but I am convinced it is him interesting that in the other post he says Anyway, it turns out that I actually learned something from reading the thread. I learned that hocus is just as much of a math-challenged *%$&# ...

I lifted this from a hocus post at early-retirement.org I developed the data-based SWR tool in early 1996 and have been using it and refining it ever since. I did not do any formal statistical testing of the concept in the mid-90s. JWR1945 has helped me with the statistical analysis with the work he...

Agreed. What's worse, however, is claiming to have 60 independent data points where there's really only 2 or 3. You can't get valid statistics from severely overlapped data. I guess we have differing outlooks on which aspect is most egregious. The overall goal seems to be to generate some data to p...

I read the response to the response. I am still not sure what to make of throwing out data and then announcing that what is left fits great. A straight line provides an excellent fit for a scatter plot of Historical Database Rates versus Earnings Yield maybe this is the way it is done now a days (wh...

a rambling rob bennett post that I copied (in its entirety) yesterday from tmf. sample: My usual practice has been to refer to the factors focused on in the conventional methodology SWR studies as "volatility" and to refer to the factor not given adequate consideration as "valuation.&...

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20617175&Posted=20649269&pt=r rob/hocus/mcbeaned is now posting with several personas on different boards sort of interesting I didn't think anyone could be as dense as hocus was pretending to be I was hoping that ES wouldn't mind if I quoted rob bennet...

Am I corrrect in summarizing that you should hold a higher proportion of stocks if they did better in the future and that alower proportion if they did worse?

ataloss
still not entirely comfotable with JWR's inclination to throw out data to mke the curve fit the data better

I say leave it alone. JWR, Mike and a few others seem to be getting some good use out of it. What folks argue about, and link to, at some other board doesn't have to be our problem. good point, mostly what they seem to be getting out of the hocus/robbennet posts at tmf is a good laugh

hocus/rob bennett is linking to jwr1945 posts on the "research" board at tmf to carry on the hocus anti intercst jihad. NFB is sort of an unwitting participant in more of the nonsensical tmf conflict that hocus enjoys promoting so much.

but we have ES

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