Search found 1697 matches

by JWR1945
Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:53 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: A TIPS Ladder Example
Replies: 103
Views: 727115

Great example John. Goes a long way toward explaning why Vanguard Target Retirement Income is holding 25% Inflation protected securities. And being dividend oriented - I like the way the numbers fall. In the past - too often people pushed the current yield too hard at the expense of dividend growth...
by JWR1945
Fri Apr 29, 2005 6:27 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: A TIPS Ladder Example
Replies: 103
Views: 727115

Hi John! That's a great example. I'm going to have to spend some time reviewing it. One question, though, how would this example change (or could you do another one) for a 50 year payout. Since I'm only 38, I hopefully have at least that long :). Beachbumz 8) I use real returns and real rates in th...
by JWR1945
Fri Apr 29, 2005 4:18 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: A TIPS Ladder Example
Replies: 103
Views: 727115

A TIPS Ladder Example

Peteyperson was introducing his ideas about how to use a TIPS Ladder right up through the final minutes of the Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group. Here is an introduction that I have posted at my new site. http://www.early-retirement-planning-insights.com/newposts.html A TIPS Ladder Example This s...
by JWR1945
Sat Mar 26, 2005 6:11 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates
Replies: 28
Views: 70746

To peteyperson: Thank you for this outstanding series of posts. Your ideas are exceptionally well thought out. They are easily adapted to satisfy each individual's needs. You keep open the ability to take advantage of opportunities as they appear. A TIPS ladder of ten years is ideal for such purpose...
by JWR1945
Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:21 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Not Enough Censorship
Replies: 6
Views: 19663

Not Enough Censorship

There is one area in which Hocus and I disagree. I favor censorship on discussion boards. Hocus is willing to tolerate almost anything. I prefer heavy censorship. In spite of what you have read, Hocus has removed only one or two posts from this board. He has relocated a few posts, but very few. I wo...
by JWR1945
Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:03 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: TIPS drawdown at staggered coupon rates
Replies: 28
Views: 70746

For peteyperson: Here are the numbers that you asked for (and a few others). The payments from 1.4% I-Bonds produce a withdrawal rate of: 1) 10.78% for 10 years or 2) 7.43% for 15 years or 3) 5.77% for 20 years or 4) 4.77% for 25 years or 5) 4.11% for 30 years or 6) 3.63% for 35 years or 7) 3.28% fo...
by JWR1945
Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:59 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: John R. - Need to get in contact with u but PMs turned off.
Replies: 2
Views: 12916

Peteyperson, the email address that Hocus provided me no longer works.

You will be able to get in touch with me via the email address that Hocus has posted.

Have fun.

John R.
by JWR1945
Wed Mar 23, 2005 1:30 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155851

JWR 1945, I am sorry to hear that you are not feeling well. Get better soon! I hope you will consider starting a website that displays your work, and only your work. I and others sometimes need to ask questions; if that can be accommodated that would be good also. Another possibility would be a Yah...
by JWR1945
Wed Mar 23, 2005 1:18 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155851

Are you sure you want me to read this stuff? ... Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates are dominated by the returns during the first eleven years (this was one of my early findings). I believe you're talking through your hat. ... So what do you do instead?...You then take these regression coefficie...
by JWR1945
Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:34 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155851

The second factor is the sequence of returns. The worst-case historical sequences were typical in this regard, not anywhere close to being worst-case conditions. Less favorable sequences would have brought the Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates down sharply. Yes, but then you should explain why ...
by JWR1945
Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:26 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155851

We have a very strong case that past sequences were lucky sequences. Raddr showed this in the early days of the FIRE board. He exchanged the returns from two years selected at random. They brought down the Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates considerably. Yet, the mean and standard deviation of t...
by JWR1945
Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:21 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23832

Our measurements are in terms of portfolio survivability. The dominating source of randomness is the year-to-year variations in stock market returns. As long as you do not press for too much statistical precision, using a Gaussian approximation does a good job. I see two problems here. (1) Market r...
by JWR1945
Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:11 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23832

Mean reverting properties show up as smaller variances in stock market returns than otherwise expected. They are a secondary effect compared to year-to-year price fluctuations. Well, you've got me confused. AFAIK, mean reversion has nothing to do with variances per se. Please clarify. Raddr came up...
by JWR1945
Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:03 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23832

Excel curve fitting equations do not assume knowledge of an underlying distribution. They simply minimize the least squares error. Very well. Then you're assuming that you can fit a straight line to the empirical data. What justifies that assumption? The lines themselves and their R-squared values....
by JWR1945
Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:23 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155851

I am under the weather right now, which limits my ability to respond fully. MacDuff has the right idea. I urge all to read my May2004 Overview sticky post. This matter of definitions is critically important. In addition, Hocus has provided an excellent illustration as to why SURVIVED = SAFE is nonse...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 21, 2005 5:47 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 155851

I've read the announcements and the stickies at the top of the forum and I'm going to ask some clueless newbie questions. I refer first to this thread, which JWR1945 says "settles the great debate". 1. What's the great debate? 2. Does it have anything to do with the dreaded 4%? 3. If so, ...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 21, 2005 5:16 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 23832

2) The next step is to plot the historical data versus 100E10/P. We use Excel calculations to determine the best linear curve fit (i.e., regression). 3) We determine confidence limits. Most of the time, we use eyeball estimates as a convenience. We have the appropriate formulas that we can use when...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:59 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44802

If you look carefully at the existing SWR Board at The Early Retirement Forum, you will see that Dory36 has made intercst the moderator. When I look at the board, there's a little notation under the SWR forum that says Moderator: N/A. Is N/A an alias for intercst? I just checked. Your report is acc...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 21, 2005 1:59 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: We Have Seen the Future of Retire Early Boards,and It Works!
Replies: 30
Views: 44802

Me: Got documentation for that claim [deletions were made on Dory36's instructions]? Hocus: Dory36 did not identify particular posts for me to delete. I.e., you have no documentation. You did it on your own hook. ... and so on. ... He said that he had received many complaints about the abusive post...
by JWR1945
Mon Mar 21, 2005 1:43 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Conservative distribution phase portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 16691

Your strategy and this one are totally different. The whole direction you come from there is just a paradigm shift from this. Actually, your ideas are a lot more valuable than you realize. Not only have you addressed building a conservative retirement portfolio, you have put forth several good idea...