Search found 133 matches

by [KenM]
Mon Jul 21, 2003 5:10 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Ataloss takes advice from hocus
Replies: 45
Views: 29519

Ataloss Personally, I have reservations about a 4% swr taken when the market is at unprecedented valuation and I have no general interest in defending intercst but I get sucked into these pointless discussions. The absurdity of my own position is that I don't actually believe in a single, fixed SWR ...
by [KenM]
Mon Jul 21, 2003 4:13 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: 2nd change of subject/pace: Mortgages
Replies: 14
Views: 11030

petey It sounds very much like you like to hedge your bets My problem is that, at your age, I didn't like to hedge my bets :(. With hindsight, if I had of hedged my bets over the last 30 years I would now be much wealthier. and would recommended dollar cost averaging Not necessarily .... but if, for...
by [KenM]
Mon Jul 21, 2003 3:37 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Ataloss takes advice from hocus
Replies: 45
Views: 29519

Aarrrgggghhhhh :!::!::!:
I've just re-read my previous posts....

I'm beginning to sound like hocus :shock::shock::shock:..... (sorry, hocus :))

Is there a cure :?:

I've failed to honour my previous signature :cry::cry::cry:........

....... I've had to revert to ........
by [KenM]
Mon Jul 21, 2003 4:09 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Ataloss takes advice from hocus
Replies: 45
Views: 29519

hocus, The folowing statements of yours are totally, completely, utterly, 100% incorrect. If you can't see that, then you have no hope of leading a campaign to improve SWR analysis. the "future worse than the past" thing is highly unlikely So Bernstein is saying that the "future worse...
by [KenM]
Sun Jul 20, 2003 9:54 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: 2nd change of subject/pace: Mortgages
Replies: 14
Views: 11030

My first suggestion - it depends on the tax situation - not sure if the UK still has tax relief on mortgage interest payments for owner/occupiers - in the past I've not been in any hurry to pay off a UK mortgage because of losing tax advantages. Second suggestion - from my experience, based on hinds...
by [KenM]
Sun Jul 20, 2003 8:08 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Ataloss takes advice from hocus
Replies: 45
Views: 29519

hocus I may be the only one dumb enough not to understand you, but I still don't know what you mean when, for studies based on historical data, you say someone not making any adjustment whatsoever for valuation Most people on this board probably agree that PE10 is a reasonable measure of valuation. ...
by [KenM]
Sun Jul 20, 2003 5:22 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Ataloss takes advice from hocus
Replies: 45
Views: 29519

FWIW, Bernstein knows that conventional MC methodology gives results that are too pessimistic so he puts in a smaller number for volatility than what has been seen historically That just about sums up my opinion of Mr Bernstein. I respect his views and agree with much of what he says, but it appear...
by [KenM]
Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:47 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Safe withdrawal ideas, thoughts and provocations
Replies: 107
Views: 70963

The conventional approach does fine on all aspects of the question except valuation hocus, that's where you begin to sound unreasonable. The historical studies use historical data over a particular timeframe on peak valuations, low valuations, changes in valuations, inflation, deflation, dividends,...
by [KenM]
Fri Jul 18, 2003 11:40 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Safe withdrawal ideas, thoughts and provocations
Replies: 107
Views: 70963

Hocus As usual, you appear incapable of differentiating between what the studies actually say and what was apparently said in some of the wilder, more absurd posts on TMF. The studies, including REHP, based on historical data, include all relevant data including peaks in valuations and changes in va...
by [KenM]
Fri Jul 18, 2003 12:35 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Safe withdrawal ideas, thoughts and provocations
Replies: 107
Views: 70963

hocus I fully believe that you are very sincere in your beliefs and I accept that you have been treated badly on another board, but lately you, yourself, appear to have become more and more intolerant of others' comments and your statements appear to have become wilder. It's becoming increasingly mo...
by [KenM]
Wed Jul 16, 2003 11:58 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Safe withdrawal ideas, thoughts and provocations
Replies: 107
Views: 70963

To appreciate your point, I would need to understand what calculation has been done to generate the 2% number from the inflated figures Ataloss I definitely agree I'm surprised Bob hasn't made a few judicious comments yet. I've managed to restrain myself so far ......... but I see from the title of...
by [KenM]
Thu Jun 26, 2003 9:45 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Safe withdrawal quick questions and discussion.
Replies: 38
Views: 28075

Petey some random thoughts.... given the discussions it is fair to say that a consensus would be poor over the next 10 and better follow gradual correction. ...I'm always suspicious of a consensus. My own first law of probability says that a consensus is usually wrong :) Tomorrow may never come, but...
by [KenM]
Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:33 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Safe withdrawal quick questions and discussion.
Replies: 38
Views: 28075

Petey how can one invest with safety in mind in a balance portolio including stocks? If you're trying for FIRE in 20 years I suggest you can't aim for "safety" and "balance" during the accumulation phase. You have to take higher risks to achieve higher returns over that relativel...
by [KenM]
Wed Jun 11, 2003 8:30 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: SWR: adjust for high valuation, or at least note risk?
Replies: 16
Views: 13151

Trex You're proabaly aware of this but it's worthwhile reading the article on gummy at The Globe and Mail http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&date=20021012&archive=gam&slug=STMYMO His wife, in an astute move, persuaded him to take half that money...
by [KenM]
Tue Jun 10, 2003 3:49 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: SWR: adjust for high valuation, or at least note risk?
Replies: 16
Views: 13151

Chips I've been meaning to say before that I like your presentation of your retirement income strategy. A very elegant analysis to suit your own personal way of looking at things. With respect to.... The guy got rich while looking elsewhere, that is, at his career and hobbies. I don't think his patt...
by [KenM]
Thu Jun 05, 2003 9:50 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 58542

I don't enjoy participating until I know what the discussion is about......I feel like asking the participants to define "avita-gargoyle" and "certo-mosivich", feeling that, if they could, the definitions themselves would settle the issue. .....but if you know what the discussio...
by [KenM]
Thu Jun 05, 2003 4:17 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 58542

How one uses this number ........ depends upon your genetic configuration.


.....now that would be an interesting investigation :)
by [KenM]
Wed Jun 04, 2003 8:14 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 58542

hocus You write so much that I think it's probably easy to catch you out on some of your statements so I'm not trying to be unfair but I can't agree with some of what you say:- We now know that the number produced by the conventional methodology will in many circumstances not work if the future is l...
by [KenM]
Wed Jun 04, 2003 5:14 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 58542

I submit this statement as proof positive of my assertion that KenM is light years ahead of many. IMHO, he is light years ahead of most. I blush suitably :oops: But this is the advantage of the internet - the anonimity to ask stupid questions - and the ability to find somewhere like NFB where peopl...
by [KenM]
Tue Jun 03, 2003 3:48 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 58542

Use historical data to determine your withdrawal rate, and so long as the future is like the past, it will work. You can never have absolute confidence that the future will be like the past; you have to buy into that premise for the rest of this to work. But if you buy in, you can have confidence t...