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hocus says In order for the intercst SWR numbers to be accurate, his assumption that the investor will sell no stocks even in the event of a worst-case scenario also needs to be accurate. The historical data indicates that this assumption rarely is accurate. The few times in which it might be accura...

Wise and Lucky writes: Chips, I had to read your example a few times before I could figure out why I had a problem. Your example uses a return of 2^n which provides the return of 1 at each level. The quoted example (Bernoulli's) gives a return of 2n which would be substantially lower (in the third i...

Thanks for the responses, all of you. I will respond more later, but first I answer the easiest of the questions. I had said "I have posted my arguments based on utility theory and life expectancy in another thread here at NFB's FIRE Board." Petey then asked "Do you have a link to the...

Suppose you are offered the following game: We will toss an honest two-sided coin until the first head shows up. You will win 2^n dollars where n is the number of tosses that gets you to that first head. So, if the sequence is H (the very first toss is a head), you win $2; if it is TH (i.e., you tos...

Please include sites and URLs for at least two FIRE calculators. This will help people compare the features and results of the calculators. You might also include reviews or assessments of the calculators from NFB people or other sources, commenting on strengths and weaknesses, applicability and cav...

I agree that a reading list would be a worthwhile addition to a FIRE FAQ. My first choice for the list is The Millionaire Next Door, The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy by Thomas J. Stanley and William D. Danko. The reading list might also include the URL's of excerpts and reviews of these b...

Sorry, Petey. There are an ocean and a continent, and two generations between us, and I do not know in what fields your education and ambitions lie. I don't have much to say that would be relevant to your situation. Generalities and platitudes are all I have to offer. Here are some: Marriage and fam...

Thanks, Petey. It was a loss for all of us, even if we did not know personally any of the dead, injured, or bereaved. Citizens of more than ninety countries died in the atrocities of 9/11/2001. There was some recognition of this international tragedy yesterday when British police officers participat...

A successful business however removes the set salary for a set job restriction and opens up more possibilities if you are willing to take the gamble. The jury is out currently on whether the gamble was worth it. Thanks for the information, Petey. I'm not part of that jury. Have you read The Million...

Wanderer said, I don't think you want to know the results of our 'market timing' through this Bear. Quoting me, Chips: Hindsight in picking good investment ideas is of no use that I know of. It's a substantial part of the basis of every SWR study of which I'm aware. I think you already posted that y...

petey said Planning to only live off income is very restrictive and doesn't allow you to benefit from growth rates above inflation. There is more than a whiff of optimism in your comment there, Petey. I like it a lot. :D The plans I have been talking about make assumptions about real returns that I ...

CT, I have no way of predicting the market's short term performance, but I keep betting that it will be profitable to continue holding my long-term investments. I have records of the weekly closes of all my investment assets (except the house and discounted current value of my pension and Social Sec...

Hi, Petey, So tax free contributions to a 401k or IRA are more heavily taxed on the way out than if you investing in a ROTH IRA or just invested independently of tax wrappers? Given the variability of the tax situation, I would say having a 50/50 split is a pretty good hedge that you won't be too wr...

That would have been a good choice over the last three years. Yes, indeed, but then, if I knew how to time the market, I'd be fabulously rich instead of merely comfortably retired. Hindsight in picking good investment ideas is of no use that I know of. There is no particular reason to focus on just...

ataloss: I think that dividends and rents fit the bill for retirement investing. Sure, but capital gains fit the bill too. My tentative plan is to use dividends to supplement pensions for current living expenses and income taxes, and to use capital gains (mostly unrealized) to repair the damage infl...

for ataloss: A link to Ed Easterling's Crestmont results, too. for petey: For instance, chips if I recall correctly has a high weighting in S&P500 and plans to live off dividends from that. This puts a heavily overweighted situation in his lap that may be problematic over the long haul, but due ...

I had a recollection of sub 2% w/ds which seemed over the current dividends (but several articles draw attention to the fact that they are rising considerably from recent levels). I suspect they may rise enough to make it possible for you to live entirely from them shortly. Thanks, Petey. Hold that...

Hi, Ben, Short answer: Rent control has passed in these California cities -- Los Angeles, Santa Monica, San Francisco, San Jose and Berkeley -- and at least 125 municipalities in New Jersey. Long answer: From the 1997 source I quote below, I have just learned that my impression of rent control is co...

Ben said But you ignore the fact that rents should increase approximately with inflation. I seriously considered buying a small apartment building in Southern California twenty years ago. In analyzing the investment, I postulated increasing the rents approximately with inflation. My real estate brok...

Hi, Petey, You asked if my withdrawals will be low enough that I can avoid making any sales in the taxable account. According to my plan, the answer is yes, very nearly so. According to information from Vanguard just now, the dividend return on my TSM investment is 1.5%. I need that to grow a little...