Search found 174 matches

by therealchips
Wed Oct 01, 2003 12:08 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Funding FIRE with fish & therealchips
Replies: 4
Views: 4611

Spending one year's budget out of your nest egg a year, reducing the balance down at an even pace. Investing in a spread of diversified assets to attempt to deliver a less volatile return for every 5-10 year investment cycle. My mathematical optimization picks a budget for me which will hold the pu...
by therealchips
Wed Oct 01, 2003 9:13 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: What about FIRE websites and books?
Replies: 32
Views: 25293

Free online financial calculators

Moving past any possible anatomy envy, let me suggest this site: http://www.fincalc.com/. Calculators there offer quick (but possibly over-simplified) answers to questions like these: How will retirement impact my cost of living? (not written yet) How much will I need to save for retirement? What re...
by therealchips
Wed Oct 01, 2003 8:49 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Compound interest calculators
Replies: 3
Views: 4800

What is the rate of return on an investment?

http://www.fincalc.com can help. It offers calculators to address these ten questions or issues and many others: Becoming a millionaire Income generated by a savings plan. How long will it take to double my money? How long until my savings reach my goal? Save now vs. save later calculator How much s...
by therealchips
Tue Sep 30, 2003 11:44 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Funding FIRE with fish & therealchips
Replies: 4
Views: 4611

Recently Chips has been discussing a few snippets of ideas on the utility of time in relation to the time it takes to save for FIRE vs how much time you have to enjoy FIRE if you wait until your nest egg is large enough. At least I thought that is what he might be getting at as he hasn't fleshed hi...
by therealchips
Tue Sep 30, 2003 10:22 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: What is your planned portfolio return?
Replies: 32
Views: 22730

Am I forgetting something?
Maybe $7200 annual interest cost on your 6% mortgage as an additional expense you would not incur if you bought outright?
by therealchips
Tue Sep 30, 2003 8:39 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Is SWR a can of worms?
Replies: 29
Views: 19705

Do Past Winners Repeat?

Petey, I agree with Mike. http://www.investorhome.com/mutual.htm#do is relevant and useful, with a large number of links to related studies. Here is a sample: Malkiel admits that the analysis provided some support for the buying funds with excellent records since they outperformed during certain per...
by therealchips
Mon Sep 29, 2003 9:27 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Mark Mobius: FranklinTempleton EM mgr
Replies: 5
Views: 5846

A Mobius Bond Issue

Some one-sided questions: If Mobius had a big bond issue but sold the interest coupons separately, would the remaining part be a Möbius Strip? Is a Möbius Strip without interest? Can you get the edge when there is only one? http://scidiv.bcc.ctc.edu/Math/Mobius.html Would you wear a Möbius Strip ...
by therealchips
Mon Sep 29, 2003 9:25 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Is SWR a can of worms?
Replies: 29
Views: 19705

A book reference on Utility Theory

karma : But first I have to go reread all Chips posts on the subject. One of those posts gives the URL's for gummy 's good stuff on utility theory. Petey once asked me about books on the subject. I would think that utility theory would come up in economics and engineering design classes, but I have...
by therealchips
Sun Sep 28, 2003 8:31 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Is SWR a can of worms?
Replies: 29
Views: 19705

I don't understand the fury either. I read some of it, understood less, and recall still less. All parties would agree, I suppose, that the past is only an imperfect guide to the future but the best we have. People in general have been wise enough to qualify their predictions with "if the futur...
by therealchips
Sun Sep 28, 2003 10:48 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: What about FIRE websites and books?
Replies: 32
Views: 25293

Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run

Searching just now here at NFB, I found that there have been 25 mentions of Siegel. I haven't read his book or spent much time at his site, but here is something for your consideration: STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN: A Guide to Selecting Markets for Long Term Growth by Jeremy J. Siegel Review: http://www....
by therealchips
Sat Sep 27, 2003 2:15 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Effect of 2003 tax law on investment strategies Fm Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 6395

Is there another online up-to-date income tax calculator?

As I understand it, eligibility for the 5% tax rate depends on total income including capital gains. Here's a source to answer the question: http://www.smartmoney.com/tax/filing/index.cfm?story=bushtaxcut Filing Status Single Gross Income 0 Itemized Deduction (blank) Dividend income: $10,000 Short t...
by therealchips
Sat Sep 27, 2003 9:18 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Kenneth fisher thinks the future looks fine
Replies: 11
Views: 9566

Speculators Anonymous

WnL: I can only dream that the next 14-16 years will be a secular bear. You are right, of course, that a prolonged bear market could be a good thing for people in their accumulation phases, provided the bull returns eventually. Arguably, a growing economy reflected in a generally rising stock market...
by therealchips
Fri Sep 26, 2003 2:09 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Kenneth fisher thinks the future looks fine
Replies: 11
Views: 9566

The Bear covered half my Accumulation Period

TRyan said Our hero needs to be reminded that the market LOST 22% in secular BEAR market from February 1966 through August 1982 (16.5 years!!). My accumulation period was 1960 to 1993 when I retired on marginally adequate assets. I had the good fortune to retire into the bull market of the 1990's, b...
by therealchips
Thu Sep 25, 2003 12:57 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Effect of 2003 tax law on investment strategies Fm Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 6395

Will Congress make the tax cuts permanent? abolish them?

I speculate that as the scheduled expiration of the tax cuts gets closer, Congress will come under irrestible pressure to extend them or make them permanent. Another possibility, remote I think, is repeal of the tax cuts entirely. (That sort of thing was Mondale's ticket to the White House. :wink:) ...
by therealchips
Thu Sep 25, 2003 12:19 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: IRA distrib vs Roth Conv (was SWR and portfolio size?mist.?)
Replies: 10
Views: 9212

Income taxes on Social Security benefits

I still plan to retire about a year before I start collecting social security and convert all of my 401(k) to my Roth. I will have to pay substantial taxes at that time out of my taxable accounts but will then be able to withdraw from the Roth while collecting social security without taxation of SS...
by therealchips
Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:52 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Gold and Energy
Replies: 20
Views: 17369

Since 1942 the optimal allocation between the S&P500 and gold stocks would've been about 88:12 and would've returned slightly more than a 100% S&P500 allocation with lower volatility, assuming annual rebalancing. Ah, 88:12 is just the kind of quantitative result I was looking for, although ...
by therealchips
Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:31 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Give up on stocks?
Replies: 5
Views: 5458

However, because important assumptions of the regression model are violated, the results above should be taken as only suggestive of a relationship between current P/E and future stock returns. In creating the subsequent holding period returns, the data is subject to an "overlapping periods&qu...
by therealchips
Wed Sep 24, 2003 9:43 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Gold and Energy
Replies: 20
Views: 17369

25 year gains: S&P 500 2013%; Gold funds 637%

Sorry, I leave it to you to make this table look like a table: S&P beats gold in long term. Gold has clobbered the Standard and Poor's 500-stock index the last five years, but stocks have romped in the long run. How gold has fared vs. stocks: Total return* Investment 1 year 5 years 10 years 15 y...
by therealchips
Wed Sep 24, 2003 9:20 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Gold and Energy
Replies: 20
Views: 17369

200 years of spot gold prices

http://www.onlygold.com/TutorialPages/Prices200YrsFS.htm 200 years of spot gold prices - since 1792 I cannot figure out how to unscramble the data at that site for reproducing here, so I give you just the URL. I have no special knowledge about the questions you asked. I found that site by searching ...
by therealchips
Tue Sep 23, 2003 10:13 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Baby step towards FIRE
Replies: 7
Views: 6980

Helpers who don't.

The important step for me was recognizing that financial advisors, brokers, managers of actively trading funds and other such people are not my friends and will not help me accumulate money. They have a fundamental conflict of interest with their clients; they need their clients to keep paying for a...