Search found 265 matches

by raddr
Wed Jun 16, 2004 8:36 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: I can't take this anymore
Replies: 5
Views: 4670

I will point out that roughly 90% of the "mess", aka disruption, came from members other than hocus. I've actively participated here for a week. Most of the posts are "I cant take this anymore/I'm leaving/I'm retiring". Despite the obvious fact that this feeds the very fear expr...
by raddr
Wed Jun 16, 2004 3:06 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: I can't take this anymore
Replies: 5
Views: 4670

I can't take this anymore

After the initial shock of seeing hocus reinstated I decided to give it a few days and see what happens. It appears that my worst fears are being realized. Frankly, this board has become a mess since then and is only getting worse. As much as it pains me I am going to greatly limit my participation ...
by raddr
Sun Jun 13, 2004 3:45 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Raddr's new site
Replies: 3
Views: 3863

Es, you are a class act I totally agree! I am branching off here but I've got too many friends to leave completely. I think that ES has done a stellar job with this site and I sincerely hope that he and the NFB flourish for years to come. I created my site only because I don't want to be associated...
by raddr
Fri Jun 11, 2004 3:11 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Hocus is back?!
Replies: 41
Views: 20195

ataloss, raddr, et al., Just ignoring him isn't an option? Bpp Good idea in theory but in practice it only works if everyone ignores him otherwise he'll hijack the thread with disruptive posts. He's done it a million times here and at TMF and it got him banned at both places. I guess the bottom lin...
by raddr
Fri Jun 11, 2004 2:39 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Hocus is back?!
Replies: 41
Views: 20195

Great post ataloss. Right on! I have put up a lot of time into posting here Indeed you have. Even if the defections from this board are limited to you and FMO (highly unlikely - there will be more) it will be a huge loss for NFB.
by raddr
Thu Jun 10, 2004 3:32 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Hocus is back?!
Replies: 41
Views: 20195

I deeply regret that a few folks can't find a way to get along with others. And that they feel the need to leave because of that. ES, So it is the non-disruptive folks who have made positive contributions and not the one who has been banned from multiple boards (including this one by you) that need...
by raddr
Thu Jun 10, 2004 6:30 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Hocus is back?!
Replies: 41
Views: 20195

Greetings raddr Please check your private messages. Thanks! Hi ES, Got it - thanks! I'm going to step back, let the dust settle, check out ataloss' new board, and think this thing through before I decide on my future here at NFB. Even if this is the end of it here for me, thanks for nearly 2 years ...
by raddr
Thu Jun 10, 2004 3:27 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Hocus is back?!
Replies: 41
Views: 20195

Hocus is back?!

Hi ES, In the above locked Important announcement! post you deliver this shocker: First I would like to welcome back hocus to NFB! He will be taking over the board he created, the SWR board, where he, John and all those interested can continue their SWR work. Are you serious about this? If so, can y...
by raddr
Mon May 31, 2004 1:31 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Oil threat to Fire?
Replies: 17
Views: 9897

intercst manage to save retirement assets in this scenario by the introduction of 30 year TIPS yielding 3.92% real return. Currently 30 year TIPS are no longer issued. A 10 year TIP currently is yielding around 2%. I don't know the TIPS now available would rescue the 1966/1996 portfolio. Thoughts? ...
by raddr
Fri May 14, 2004 5:26 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: I have retired
Replies: 44
Views: 22109

I wasn't going to comment here but I can't let this go after reading this bit of hubris from the SWR board: From a technical standpoint, the Great Debate ended on June 24, 2003 when I submitted my post about Safe Withdrawal Rate versus P/E10 Data. m That post has a sticky in recognition that it repr...
by raddr
Mon Apr 26, 2004 2:41 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
Replies: 13
Views: 7243

For example, some investors fret and worry about paying a few basis points in trading costs or expense ratios but think nothing of buying an index at 2 or 3 times it's normal valuation when there are plenty of better alternatives out there. That would be me. US large-caps became underweight in my p...
by raddr
Sun Apr 25, 2004 7:56 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
Replies: 13
Views: 7243

Hi Mike, Even asset classes as large as the S&P can become overvalued if enough investors chase it without regard to valuation. This is exactly what has happened IMHO. Investor psychology amazes me in this regard. For example, some investors fret and worry about paying a few basis points in trad...
by raddr
Sun Apr 25, 2004 2:59 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
Replies: 13
Views: 7243

but overall, the more data you have to exclude to make the theory fit the facts the less confidence it inspires LOL! To say the least. If you throw out enough data you can get some real pretty graphs and spiffy statistics. BTW my comments were not aimed at JWR's board specifically. Some of the most...
by raddr
Sat Apr 24, 2004 5:25 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
Replies: 13
Views: 7243

Re: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds

[Right, the implication in the threads I looked at was that the switching strategies were viable for future use which I think is dangerous. If there was a recommendation not to follow them then it was pretty well hidden and I missed it. I will note that it seemed to me that pretty much any time Joh...
by raddr
Sat Apr 24, 2004 3:28 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds
Replies: 13
Views: 7243

Re: jwr has a good point about switching thresholds

from his defense of switching post: In our recommendations we have repeatedly advised people not to depend on numbers alone. Rather, we have advised people to look for cause and effect. We have searched out sensitivities to reduce our dependence on the numbers themselves. I looked at the "swit...
by raddr
Fri Apr 23, 2004 7:50 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: PE switching studies - proceed with caution!
Replies: 12
Views: 7549

I wonder if the shift you observe occured gradually over time (increasing a little each decade) or in one large step (brought on by some technical advancement or change in regulations)? Hi SG, Good question. There were four periods that include all of the data points. The 5 yr. CAGR's (real) for ea...
by raddr
Thu Apr 22, 2004 7:45 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: PE switching studies - proceed with caution!
Replies: 12
Views: 7549

Re: I wonder what the new 'average' is?

Hi Ben, I think it's a fair assumption that the widespread availability of low cost mutual funds, and the widespread 'knowledge' that stocks offer the highest return have raised the long term average valuation of the stock martket. Over Shiller's data I think the average PE-10 was 15.5. I wonder if ...
by raddr
Thu Apr 22, 2004 5:53 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: PE switching studies - proceed with caution!
Replies: 12
Views: 7549

Re: Interesting...

Hi Casey, To my untrained eye, it appears there is still some definite correlation in your graph to high PE10 and low returns Yes there is definitely some correlation there but, remember, the data is overlapped which mutes the significance of the apparent correlation. ...but the definition of high, ...
by raddr
Thu Apr 22, 2004 3:49 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Worth a look on the SWR board
Replies: 15
Views: 7520

Ben, I looked at Schiller's paper and, as I suspected, he acknowledges the pitfalls of using nonindependent data. He shows through Monte Carlo simulation that the predictive ability of the PE10 ratio is for real but that you can't rely on conventional descriptive statistics for confidence intervals ...
by raddr
Wed Apr 21, 2004 5:48 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: PE switching studies - proceed with caution!
Replies: 12
Views: 7549

PE switching studies - proceed with caution!

As many of you know, I am not a fan of PE switching studies. I believe that there has been a shift over the years in the way that investors react to apparent overvaluation. This is very important in the study of SWR's because it is the first few years of retirement that are make or break for the ret...