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Say that there were 100 investors who retired in 1929 with a 74 percent stock allocation, planning a 30-year retirement. Each lived through the 90 percent drop in prices that followed. If only 3 lowered their stock allocation, then you can have 97 percent confidence in the 4 percet number. If 20 lo...

1. the detail exists. in incredibly granular detail. "Hard" and "verifiable" would not begin to describe it. in detail not even dreamt of on this board. it is reposited (if that's a word) in databases at Vanguard and Fidelity. I bet they know to 6 significant digits the average ...

For example, the question of the extent to which investors with a 74 percent stock allocation will remain in stocks in the face of a sharp downturn in prices is quantifiable. There is data available on this question. StubbleJumper has told us that the one reseacher who has access to the data is not...

I found a few links relevant to stock cycles: http://www.cpcug.org/user/invest/secular.html - Written in 1997, this summary speaks of a 32-year stock market cycle http://www.ici.org/pdf/per02-02.pdf - Need Adobe Acrobat for this one - discusses mutual fund shareholder activity during stock cycles. C...

It's a good post, hocus - I'd like to make one suggestion. Consider adding an 'executive summary' at the start of the post where, in one paragraph, you summarize the post and your recommendation. For example: The post that follows outlines an alternative to the Plans A and B that I proposed in the p...

I don't have a whole bunch of time to move forward on this right now. But I could participate in discussions here in an effort to develop a FAQ beginning in early January. Does this idea have appeal to any others here? I would be particularly interested in getting the involvement of someone like Da...

Also you'd need to be real sure that the 30 or 50 or whatever year target you have is enough time. I'd hate to retire at age 40, put the 50 year dual portfolio in place then live past 90. The odds of living more than 50 additional years at age 40 are small. The odds of a 50 year dual portfolio fail...

I'm hoping that this board will eventually get to the point where comments about posters at other boards will dwindle to almost nothing. Jabs at posters that are 'over there' aren't any more constructive than the personal comments made on the Fool board. I can certainly understand the reason for the...