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You are welcome to give mannfm all the credit in the world, but I haven't seen too much to get in such a lather about. OK, BenSolar . I think it is fair to say that I am by nature a get-in-a-lather sort of guy. So perhaps we are just talking about a matter of personality differences here. The botto...

I'm afraid I don't agree that there is so much 'shown' by mannfm's posts.... MPT isn't dead, it is just evolving. Even that is a breakthrough insight, in my view. Say that five years from now, the consensus is that Modern Portfolio Theory is not dead, but has evolved into something very different f...

Here's a link to a thread now going on at the Berkshire Hathaway board at the Motley Fool site. http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20751342&sort=whole There are a number of good points made in this thread re the psychological stresses that must be endured to succeed at value investing. I tho...

Incorporating many factors into our models, such as short term interest rates, money supply growth, tax law, demographics, etc... will make the model more accurate. My guess is that it is going to be exceedingly hard to pull off what you suggest here, Mike. I don't object to anyone giving it a try....

Yes, Alec, it is a free lunch. But only a few are willing to take advantage of it. My take on this is that the thought processes that go into the formation of investing strategies almost always involve an emotional component. Investors often purport to be using data to form their strategies. In man...

Please scroll down to the subheading referring to "Alpha." http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo050704 Juicy Excerpt #1:By moving into hedge funds and other absolute return strategies, investors were not necessarily lowering risk. They were exchanging one type of risk (beta o...

Please see the issue dated 4-30-04.

http://www.weedenco.com/welling/biframe.htm

Juicy Quote #1: While the Efficient Market Theory was dominant - although not universally accepted - among economists until 20-25 years ago, strong evidence and numerous research studies disproving it have been piling up for years.

Juicy Quote #2:News of the demise of the random walk has only very slowly spread outside of the economics profession, in part because its overthrow came as a considerable shock to many economists. Nonetheless, if the random walk hypothesis were correct, then the most likely return on equity investment in the future would simply be its historic average return. The evidence, however, is strongly against this.

Juicy Quote #3: It shows the prospective real returns on U.S. equities from the end of 2003 out to 2013, assuming just for the sake of argument that the market returns to fair value by the end of 2004 and then subsequently provides the historic average return. The upshot is that even over 10 years, the prospective return on equity investment is barely above zero - and even if we'd taken the chart out another 10 years, the prospective return is still under 4% per year.

Juicy Quote #4:There usually have to be at least two downward cycles before people actually start to be able to accept their errors of the past. So this current secondary bubble is actually very typical, classic.

Juicy Quote #5: The advice people are always given is "not to panic."Â￾ But the really valuable advice would be: "panic now, not later."