Search found 13 matches

by mannfm11
Sun May 09, 2004 12:10 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Inflation vs. Deflation debate
Replies: 9
Views: 11458

I like that response John

I sense because we only had an investment slowdown, we still have the recession in front of us, not behind us. One must realize the growth in the world is in East Asia and to some extent in India and this part of the world has a habit of operating in insolvency, but IMF standards are somewhat enforc...
by mannfm11
Sat May 08, 2004 11:53 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Inflation vs. Deflation debate
Replies: 9
Views: 11458

Deflation is a financial Phenomenon

I appreciate the quote from FDR. FDR nationalized the property in the United States on March 9, 1933, using the trading with the enemy act as amended, by basically making the American people the same as the enemy. It is our property that collateralizes the US dollar and nothing else. In response to ...
by mannfm11
Sat May 08, 2004 3:55 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Mauldin on Different Types of Risk
Replies: 10
Views: 11257

I would say this is the early stages of a massive bear, not the continuation of a bubble. I think the bubble continued after Greenspan said it was a bubble in 1996. We still have a bubble mentality, but there aren't that many new chips to push stocks higher and much of the new float is being soaked ...
by mannfm11
Sat May 08, 2004 3:45 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Mauldin on Different Types of Risk
Replies: 10
Views: 11257

i write Mauldin quite often in response to his writings I get in email. I would like to read his book, but this is the first thing I have seen John write that might indicate that returns on about anythign could be negative. As more and more big money moves into hedge funds, there will be less and le...
by mannfm11
Sat May 08, 2004 3:38 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Is Andrew Smithers Really Mannfm11?
Replies: 4
Views: 17464

I guess I am going to find out who Andrew Smithers is if I follow that link. I was going to write a book and I wrote several chapters. Random Walk was one of the chapters. I think it has been proven that if one can take the bad months out of the market and keep most of the good months in the market,...
by mannfm11
Fri Apr 30, 2004 12:15 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR
Replies: 4
Views: 7792

Good response John. The thing about stock markets is people get in on the top, suffer, then get out, never to get in again. What I am writing about isn't common knowledge and Wall Street isn't going tell you or me about it. Dr. Shiller has the data and the right idea, though I think he is using a li...
by mannfm11
Thu Apr 29, 2004 10:32 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Maybe I can add some insight here
Replies: 4
Views: 7788

That was very funny Mike

your comment about being able to retire after 30 years
by mannfm11
Thu Apr 29, 2004 11:59 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Death of Portfolio Theory
Replies: 7
Views: 10377

I think you missed my point

I think if you examine what I write and begin to comprehend where I have been trying to go with this idea, you will begin to realize there is no shortcut to owning stocks and using them to retire. What I wrote was that today, holding a portfolio of SPX stocks returns less than holding 30 year treasu...
by mannfm11
Wed Apr 28, 2004 10:28 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Maybe I can add some insight here
Replies: 4
Views: 7788

Maybe I can add some insight here

I read the P/E10 thread and I am not sure I follow it. But, I don't really care if I follow it exactly, because I have a good idea what you guys are trying to figure out. How do you quit working and continue to live reasonably well. My Dad quit work at 46 and he wasn't exactly rich, but he died at a...
by mannfm11
Wed Apr 28, 2004 8:49 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Death of Portfolio Theory
Replies: 7
Views: 10377

The Death of Portfolio Theory

Now for what brought me here, Robs response to a post I wrote about the death of portfolio theory being of use in todays valuations. I will preface my previous comments with the fact I haven't studied SWR at all, but I have my own dabbling with numbers in looking at the hazards of stock market retur...
by mannfm11
Wed Apr 28, 2004 3:59 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR
Replies: 4
Views: 7792

SWR

Rob here posted a reply to a post I put up on the Prudent Bear fund board. In it he directed the people to this board, which I find covers a very interesting topic. For several years, I have been trying to find a reasonable way to liquidate a portfolio in retirement. My career is in doing next to no...
by mannfm11
Wed Apr 28, 2004 3:15 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Current dividends in different stocks markets/indices?
Replies: 6
Views: 9583

go to the S&P website.

standardandpoors.com They have a spreadsheet showing a lot of data since about 1977. The current trailing dividend on the SPX is 1.61%. As far as shillers spreadsheet, I have done a lot of work on the numbers involved. I have developed what I call trend inflation. It is a 10 year IRR based on the po...
by mannfm11
Wed Apr 28, 2004 3:03 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: I just wrote a post and I don't see it.
Replies: 2
Views: 6242

I just wrote a post and I don't see it.

Sorry, but I want to see if this one posts before I write another long winded post.