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What is different today is that dividend payout ratios are much lower than they have been in the past. If one assumes that corporations reinvest retained earnings at least as well as investors reinvest their dividends...which is a major league assumption in itself, then the total return from stocks...

Now it may be that cloud patterns can be used to help you assess whether it will rain tomorrow. However, if it has been establshed beyond any reasonable doubt that wind velocity also plays a role, then a weather analysis that does not consider the wind velocity factor is an invalid analysis. That w...

John, I've enjoyed the analysis, although I fear that it may be difficult for new board members to follow discussions here, given the speed with which new ideas flow from old ones. If you weren't part of all the conversations that came before, it's hard to catch up! I'll throw a few questions in to ...

I must be slow, but, so that I might (more clearly) understand the point you're making (regarding mathematically generated SWR s), maybe we could agree that any mathematical prescription requires numbers (as inputs) and spits out a SWR . To put it another way, I would always want to understand what...

JWR1945 has independently calculated the SWR for the year 2000 and come to a number very close to the number that Bernstein came to. I believe that JWR1945's number was 2.3 percent. Could someone please point me to JWR1945's calculations and discussion of his methodology? thanks, dan