Search found 174 matches

by therealchips
Sat Nov 29, 2003 11:29 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: So there was this post on another board...
Replies: 24
Views: 35308

Neurofool, please be doubly impressed. :D
by therealchips
Wed Nov 05, 2003 2:02 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: so maybe we should feel sorry for trolls?
Replies: 15
Views: 22812

When raddr's page is ready . . .


It is ready. Have you posted there? raddr and I and my friend Polly seem to be monopolizing the conversation although I wouldn't at all mind if you interrupt. :D
by therealchips
Sat Nov 01, 2003 9:55 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: At the calculation stage, the SWR is a data-based construct.
Replies: 7
Views: 13373

Do we agree at least on what SWR's have been historically?

I am confused about the messages here. Don't we all agree at least that the historically calculated SWR's are objective and correct as history ? That is, does anyone challenge the accuracy of the historical reporting in http://rehphome.tripod.com/pestudy1.html? Don't we all agree that in those chart...
by therealchips
Sat Nov 01, 2003 7:10 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: I am perplexed
Replies: 31
Views: 38502

OK, then, back to the original question from ataloss: About this issue of safe withdrawal rates depending on the size of the portfolio It seems to me that a 100 million portfolio with a 4 million withdrawal/ year has the same chance of success as a 1 million dollar portfolio with a $40,000 withdrawa...
by therealchips
Fri Oct 31, 2003 7:22 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: utility theory question
Replies: 14
Views: 23031

Pretending the house is not an asset.

Kenm: That may seem extremely odd behaviour to many - I get the impression that most members at NFB lead very well ordered, logical financial lives with spreadsheets etc - am I the only one who has to play psychological tricks on themselves to keep their financial affairs in order???? I'm one of the...
by therealchips
Fri Oct 31, 2003 6:57 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: I am perplexed
Replies: 31
Views: 38502

Petey said: Partly this was connected to the market still being overvalued after the large drops and investors not understanding intrinsic value. If they had understood it, they would have known that the market went from (for example) a 150% overvalued level to a 75% overvalued level and so it wasn'...
by therealchips
Fri Oct 31, 2003 10:33 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: utility theory question
Replies: 14
Views: 23031

TRyan said, and I agree, "the dollar you add today is MORE useful than the dollar you add tomorrow." This is not just because the earlier dollar will work for you longer, but also because you are becoming richer. Karma said "I bet you're going to tell me I can approximate it with Solv...
by therealchips
Thu Oct 30, 2003 9:14 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: I don't think that this is plagiarism
Replies: 3
Views: 9715

Didn't Daniel Bernoulli get there first, in 1738?

Consume less to enjoy life more. Living with this new state of mind works because of what economists call the Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility. I call it the Coin Toss Law. Who published first, Terhorst or hocus? I haven't followed the discussion so I don't know who might have plagiarized whom. ...
by therealchips
Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:53 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: utility theory question
Replies: 14
Views: 23031

Economists Utility Theory is not Bentham's.


by therealchips
Thu Oct 30, 2003 1:05 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: utility theory question
Replies: 14
Views: 23031

Clarification (?)

ataloss asked for clarification of my comment; "Here at NFB, I have demonstrated, to my own satisfaction at least, that personal utility theory influences financial planning and (do I dare say it?) SWR analysis." Here it is, in three parts. Part the First: Being modest or cautious or somet...
by therealchips
Thu Oct 30, 2003 8:02 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Terhorst and coin flipping
Replies: 12
Views: 19584

As our portfolios grow, doesn't it make it harder to keep contributing money as the contributions become a small percentage of the total? Yes, that makes sense both psychologically and mathematically. Utility functions are supposed to increase at a decreasing rate. That means that the dollar you ad...
by therealchips
Wed Oct 29, 2003 7:30 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Terhorst and coin flipping
Replies: 12
Views: 19584

Karma asked: My question is: How does this fit in with the old saying in economics that you cannot compare personal utility functions? Wouldn't that mean you can't truly compare personal, uh, sensible withdrawal rates across a population? Am I even warm? I think the minimum requirement for a persona...
by therealchips
Wed Oct 29, 2003 12:05 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Terhorst and coin flipping
Replies: 12
Views: 19584

Thanks, ataloss. I have posted here repeatedly on the subject of utility theory. (Just search on the word utility with me as the author.) Here at NFB, I have demonstrated, to my own satisfaction at least, that personal utility theory influences financial planning and (do I dare say it?) SWR analysis...
by therealchips
Mon Oct 27, 2003 10:08 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Are you on track to retire rich?
Replies: 34
Views: 29401

If something cannot continue indefinitely, it will stop.

ataloss: the prospect that none of us (by chips extrapolation) in the us will be able to afford health care Short answer: Hey, don't blame me. I was only showing the absurdity of projecting present trends far, far into the future. Long answer: My only point was that we cannot continue indefinitely w...
by therealchips
Fri Oct 24, 2003 6:33 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Retirees need $1 million for health care alone
Replies: 16
Views: 16363

Here is the answer that someone got from one of the authors cited above: You raise a good question, but I wonder whether you do so at the cost of ignoring a more important one. It is certainly implausible to imagine a future where a 65-year-old will live 35 more years, each of which records medical ...
by therealchips
Thu Oct 23, 2003 1:20 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Retirees need $1 million for health care alone
Replies: 16
Views: 16363

Last I heard, the US takes more than half of the immigrants, worldwide, that migrate from one country to another. Some gradual depopulation of the US seems very attractive by comparison. "Someone" emailed my previous post to one of the study's authors, without softening its tone. In the (d...
by therealchips
Thu Oct 23, 2003 11:24 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Retirees need $1 million for health care alone
Replies: 16
Views: 16363

The new report concludes that a 65-year old retiree without employment-based insurance may require up to nearly $1.5 million to prefund lifetime medical expenses (assuming death at age 100 and medical inflation of 14 percent annually). What does medical inflation of 14% annually for 35 years mean? ...
by therealchips
Tue Oct 21, 2003 9:09 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Are you on track to retire rich?
Replies: 34
Views: 29401

Bottom line; if you are a $ millionaire you belong to a global elite of 0.1% of the population on earth. Yes, indeed, and for me there is a moral issue in this. It motivates me to live below my means, far below, and to manage the capital as if it is in trust for future generations while supporting ...
by therealchips
Sun Oct 19, 2003 7:52 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Are you on track to retire rich?
Replies: 34
Views: 29401

Petey, I'll bet that the article leaves out the present value of pensions. Some people have such good pensions, with COLAs, that they really don't need another dime in savings to live well in retirement. One of the posters here is in that position IIRC. (I'm not the one. My pension is puny and has n...
by therealchips
Sun Oct 19, 2003 10:42 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Are you on track to retire rich?
Replies: 34
Views: 29401

Thanks, MPR. I got a good laugh out of that. Are there any harmful side-effects from long-term use of Imodiumâ„¢?